Voting Behaviour and the Media Flashcards
Election case studies: 1979
Thatcher’s first victory
Called after Callaghan’s minority government lost a vote of no confidence
73 seat majority
Policies and manifesto:
- Both parties gave a high priority to bringing inflation down
- Callaghan resisted pressures for more left wing policies
- Thatcher gave little indication that she intended to move the party to the right - there was a mention of privatisation (gained her support from middle class, 59% voted Tory) and removing some union powers. This mean when Callaghan warned of a lurch to the right it had no credibility
Campaign:
- Conservatives advertised under the guidance of Gordon Reece and Tim Bell e.g. ‘Labour isn’t working’
- Labour campaign lacked awareness of finer points of presentation
- Thatcher had many photo ops
- Thatcher turned down TV debates as they would’ve highlighted the difference between her and ‘Sunny Jim’
- Tories used ‘dont just hope for a better life, vote for one’
Wider political context:
- Labour government was weak - precipitated the dissolution of parliament
- Callaghan’s government was a minority that survived by constructing deals with smaller parties
- During the ‘Winter of Discontent’ Callaghan’s government attempted to impose a limit on pay increases which caused a series of strikes which he then failed to control - Callaghan was going to call a vote before the winter of discontent in autumn but delayed it
- Callaghan dismissed a question about ‘the situation at home’ after a summit on a Caribbean island, and was accused of being out of touch, with the headline “Crisis? What Crisis?”
- In 1977 the Labour government had to go to the IMF for a loan, usually only third world countries had to do this
Election case studies: 1997
Policies:
- Blair drive forward the policy of ‘modernisation’ which led to an increase in support for ‘New Labour’ from all groups
- New Labour abandoned old-fashioned party policies, such as nationalisation, tax increases, and strong union powers, instead focusing on law and order
- Labour won the endorsement of the greater part of the press
- Blair had an emphasis on constitutional reform, wining him strategic votes from Lib Dems, Scotland, NI and Wales
Campaign:
- New Labour placed a huge emphasis on developing a professional vote wining machine
- Labour had the campaign song ‘Things Can Only Get Better’
- Labour employed PR experts to handle media and they targeted marginal seats
Wider political context:
- The economy was recovering from the recession, but voters did not give the Conservatives credit for this as they remembered ‘Black Wednesday’ rather than economic improvement
- Image of Tory incompetence was confirmed by a series of financial and sexual scandals and divisions over the relationship with the EU (weak leadership). Many were fed up with the Tories and felt they couldn’t get anything right
Election case studies: 2010
Policies:
- 3 main parties all agreed that the main concern was to reduce the budget deficit, and all pledged to make savings without sacrificing essential public services
- Conservatives called for immediate cuts, and their rivals said the cuts should be gradual
- Conservatives accused Labour of reckless overspending
Campaign:
- Conservatives intensely targeted marginal seats early in 2005-2010 parliament
- Innovation of the campaign was the televised debates featuring the 3 main party leaders; Brown came across as wooden ‘I agree with Nick’
Wider context:
- After succeeding Blair, brown briefly encouraged speculation that he would call an autumn election and when he decided not to he was labeled ‘Bottler Brown’
- Brown also has to contend with the financial crisis and recession which gave the Tories ammo against him (also affected the young population and led to more young people voting Tory)
- Brown was treated harshly in the media
- Conservatives weren’t entirely convinced that Cameron was ready to take over - he was then unable to secure the majority and had to form a coalition
Election case studies: 2024
Policies:
- Starmer recognised that many voters had been alienated by Corbyn’s socialism so was careful to limit planned tax increases to a handful of proposals that wouldn’t directly affect the bulk of the population (VAT on private schools)
- Conservatives offered significant tax cuts and spending promises but were unclear on how this would be funded
- About pledge to set up state owned electricity generation companies and renationalise railways
- Conservatives planned to continue issuing licences for North Sea oil and gas extraction and wanted to implement the National Service
Campaigns:
- Sunak was expected to call an autumn election
- Sunak’s election announcement in the rain without an umbrella
- Sunak left 80th anniversary of D-Day early, while Starmer remained
- Sunak’s private secretary placed a bet on the election date 3 days before it was announced
- By the final weeks of the campaign, the conservatives were appealing to voters to not give Labour a ‘super-majority’
- Labour focused their attention on critical marginal seats
- Labour had a central theme of changed and Starmer presented it as a choice between ‘decline and chaos under the Tories or rebuilding our country under Labour’
- Reassured voters that Labour could be trusted with power
- Disciplined Labour campaign was careful to avoid any impression of complacency about winning prospects
Wider context:
- War in Ukraine
- Covid and partygate
- Cost of living crisis, high inflation
- Gaza crisis
- Rise of Reform UK which helped split the vote
- 3 PMs between 2019-24
- Truss lasted 49 days and crashed the economy
- Long hospital waiting lists
What is class dealignment?
The process where individuals no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and do not vote for the party they may be expected to, given their background
What is partisan dealignment?
The process where individuals no linger identify themselves on a long-term basis as being associated with a certain political party
What are the reasons and evidence for class dealignment?
- Differences in class are no longer as visible; society has become more affluent and there are more people aspiring to have a middle class way of life
- Promoted by the sale of council houses to their tenants under Thatcher
- Decline of old heavy industries reduced union power an the less unionised service sector expanded
- New Labour; appealed to the middle classes and working class as they dropped the commitment to nationalisation
What are the reasons and evidence for partisan dealignment?
- People are less likely to work in the same industry for their whole life
- There was a growing sense of disillusion and apathy
- The size of the core vote for Conservatives and Labour diminished:
1979 - 81%
1997 - 74%
2010 - 65%
How might dealignment impact election outcomes?
Class: traditionally upper class parties may not do aswell
Partisan: smaller majorities, system appears more like a multi-party system, smaller parties have more influence
What is essentialism?
The assumption that everyone in a particular group thinks the same
What are the traditional voting patterns for gender?
- Historically women have had a stronger preference for the Conservatives than men, maybe because they favoured a stable society and were the main carers so responded to traditional Tory emphasis on family
- In the Blair era, the difference in gender voting habits lessened, and young women were more likely to vote Labour than young men; because women were just as likely to have jobs outside of the home and may be responding to New Labour’s family friendly policies
- Older women are more likely to vote conservative than younger women; in 2010 30% of women age 18-24 voted Tory, for women over 55, this was 42%
- There is no significant difference in turnout between the genders
Influence on policies:
- New Labour implemented family friendly policies, e.g. free nursery places
- There were more policies to target female support e.g. the equal pay act
What are the voting patterns for age?
- Older people more likely to vote Conservative; they are more likely to own property, so will vote for the party most likely to protect their material interests; age means they are less likely to vote idealistically or with the aspiration of fundamentally changing society; political outlooks are often shaped by experience
- Older people are more likely to vote, 76% of over 65s voted in 2010, compared to 44% of 18-24s; possibly because the elderly acquired habits of voting early in their lives, and young people may feel alienated
Influence on policy:
- Many have policies targeted at young people to increase their turnout, e.g. lowering voting age, maintenance grants
- New Labour had more traditional policies and moved away from strong union powers as older people would remember when the unions had lots of power and there were many strikes
- 2010 - Cameron refused to cut pensioner benefits, Lib Dems argued for a cut in winter fuel for better off pensioners
What are the voting patterns for ethnicity?
- Ethnic minorities more inclined to vote Labor; Labour is more focused on promoting a multi-cultural and anti-discrimination agenda, and members of minority ethnic groups are disproportionally employed in low-wage jobs
- 51% of ethnic minorities voted compared to 67% of white people in 2010
Influence on policy:
- Labour implemented more progressive policies
- Conservatives wanted to ‘stop the boats’
What are voting patterns for regions?
- Most voters in the south (excluding London) and in rural areas and suburbs typically support the Conservatives
- In industrial areas, the North, Wales, the Midlands, there is more loyalty to Labour
Class dealignment over 3 case studies
- Beween 1979 and 2010 the percentage of middle class voters voting Conservative fell - from 59% in 1979 to 39% in 1997 and 2010
- The percentage of middle class voters voting Labour rose from 24% in 1978 to 34% in 1997 (possibly because of New Labour) before falling to 27% in 2010 (possible due to Cameron moving towards a more One Nation approach after Thatcher)
- Percentage of middle class voters voting Lib Dem has risen - 15% in 1979, 20% in 1997 and 26% in 2010
Skilled working class:
- Proportion voting conservative fell then rose; 41% in 1979, 27% in 1997, 37% in 2010
- Proportion voting Labour rose then fell quite significantly - 41% in 1979, 50% in 1997, 29% in 2010
- Proportion voting Lib Dem rose - 15%, 16%, 22%
Semi-skilled/unskilled working class:
- Proportion voting Conservative fell then rose; 34%, 21%, 31%
- Proportion voting Labour rose then fell; 49%, 59%, 40%
- Proportion voting Lib Dem stayed the same the rose; 13%, 13%, 17%
Gender dealignment over three case study elections
- Male support for Conservatives fell then rose
- Female support for conservatives was higher than male support in 1979, 1997 but not 2010
- Female support for Lib Dems was higher than male support, but both increased
- Female support for Labour was lower than male support in 1979 and 1997 but not 2010
- There was increased support for Labour from both genders in 1997; might not be evidence that there is gender dealignment as ‘New Labour’ gained lots of support
How influential is legacy media?
- Despite declining circulation, legacy media influence is still heavy because it is largely consumed by older people and they are more likely to vote
- 4 newspapers endorsed the Conservatives in 2015, 2 endorsed Labour, and 1 UKIP
- There is evidence for declining influence as all newspapers experienced a fall in daily circulation figures of over 50% between 1997 and 2016 (counterargument could be that people are using online news so these figures may not be accurate)
- The Sun fell from 3877097 in 1997 to 1787096 in 2010
- Guardian fell from 428010 in 1997 to 164163 in 2010
- The Sun has the highest average daily circulation figures, so likely has the most influence:
- Supported Labour in 1997 and 2024 and Labour won both these elections
- The sun supported the Conservatives in 1992 and 2015, and the Conservatives won both of these
How influential are TV debates?
- In 2010 they enhanced the appeal of Nick Clegg (who later became deputy PM) and he gained enough support to deny the Conservatives an overall majority, but the Lib Dems did get 5 fewer seats than in 2005
- Brown came across as wooden in debates
- Cameron and Brown appeared to be attacking each other and Nick Clegg appeared to be more moderate and sensible and Brown and Cameron kept saying ‘I agree with Nick”
Is the BBC impartial?
- BBC says that as it faces criticisms from the left and the right this shows its impartiality
- BBC is the most popular source of news for both Conservatives and Labour voters
- It is less trusted by those on the right
How influential is social media?
- In 2015, Conservatives spent £100,000 a month on Facebook advertising
- The development of social media has helped parties reach young people; in 2015 79% of 18-24 year olds relied almost totally on online sources to inform themselves
- Lower impact on older people who are more likely to turn out to vote; there is little evidence that social media had a large impact on the 2015 election
What are the positives of the medias role and influence in politics?
- Holds politicians and lobbyists to account
- Scrutiny; can fulfil the function of opposition when the real opposition is weak, as in 1997
What are the negatives of the medias role and influence in politics?
- Simplistic: reduces politics to personality over policy e.g. Gordon Brown
- Corruption: Leveson enquiry; the Sun hacked phones for information
What is good journalism?
Defined as being in the ‘public interest’. For examples it is in the public interest to know if a particular policy will have a positive or negative impact
What was the Leveson Enquiry?
- Revealed that employees of Rupert Murdoch’s News International had bee involved in illegal information gathering, reducing public trust in the press
- Led to the closure of News of the World
- Resulted in the creation of a new body to regulate the press more effectively;
- Independent Press Standards Organisation was proposed to be set up, but didn’t happen because they didn’t want to limit free speech, so instead advised more self- regulation
