Evidence (blurting) - Electoral Systems Flashcards
3.1 2019 effective votes
In 2019, only 30% of votes cast had an effect because of votes for parties in constituencies where that party didn’t win or because of surplus votes in a constituency for a party that won. (Can double as a question on democracy!)
3.1 votes per seat
In 2019, the Conservatives needed under 40k votes per seat while the Greens needed over 800k per seat.
In 2024, Labour needed 24,000 votes per seat while Reform UK needed over 800k per seat.
3.1 hung parliaments
There have only been 3 hung parliaments since WW2.
3.1 2015 disproportion
In the 2015 election there was a huge disproportion of seats through the FPTP system as Ukip won 12.6% although they only received one seat.
3.1 2024 disproportion
In the 2024 general election there is a disproportion of seats through the FPTP system as Reform UK won 14.29% of votes yet they only received 5 seats. The Green party has won 6.39% of the vote share although they have only gained 4 seats. Liberal Democrats became the third-largest party again by winning 72 seats with 12.22% vote share
only 34% voted for labour in the 2024 general election but the system gave labour a majority of 63% of the seats leaving them with 100% of power
In the 2024 general election Labour won a landslide victory with the vote share of 33.7%, gaining 63.2% of the seats in the Commons - evidence of ‘winner’s bonus’ under FPTP
3.1 smaller parties vote share
Smaller parties’ vote share has drastically increased due to the tactical voting against Conservatives (42.6%).
in 2024 the Lib Dems, Greens and Reform Party combined received 33.2% of the vote but only have 12.5% of seats in parliament
3.1 extremist parties
FPTP keeping out extremist parties: In 2010, the BNP won 1.9% of the vote, which would translate to 1-12 seats if a proportional system was used. Under FPTP, they got no seats in Westminster.
However, using the FPTP system George Galloway from Workers Party of Britain (far-left, pro-communist party) is elected as the new Rochdale MP in 2024 (vote share: 40%)
Update: George Galloway lost his seat to Labour in the 2024 general election
3.1 mayoral elections
Sadiq Khan won the mayoral election for a third consecutive term in 2024, with 43.8% of the vote - the highest majority so far
3.1 AMS
AMS: In the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, Labour won almost half of the constituency seats with just 32% of the vote. This was then corrected by the closed party list and they ended up with 29% of the seats. EU
AMS: In the 2011 elections, the SNP won just 16 out of the 56 regional seats (29%) despite winning 44% of the regional votes
AMS: In the 2021 Scottish parliament election, conservatives won only 5 constituency seats under FPTP but gained 26 regional list seats, bringing their total to 31 seats overall. In comparison to the 2019 UK general election, they won 6/59 seats despite getting approximately 25% votes.This shows how the FPTP is disproportional but the ‘top up’ party list element in scottish parliament election corrects the disproportionality.
3.1 SV
Only in 2016 has a London mayor won more than 50% of the total ballots (Sadiq Khan).
3.1 conservative seats
As of May 2024, the Conservatives are at 344 seats (11 by-election defeats, the suspension of the whip from three MPs accused of sexual misconduct, suspension of the whip from Matt Hancock.
3.1 STV
2022 Northern Ireland Assembly Election shows how STV is one of the most proportional electoral systems. Sinn Fein won 29% of the vote, got 27 seats and had 30% of the vote share, giving a much more proportional/representative result compared to FPTP or most other systems.
3.1 Safe seats contested in 2024 election
show FTPT still allows for change
BLACKBURN = Labour safe seat contested to independent candidate Adnan Hussain due to his stance on Gaza – relevant with Blackburn’s massive muslim population, as well as the endorsement/funding from the Issa brothers.
NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE = Conservative safe seat for its entire existence until 2024. Voted Green, with 43.2% majority.
BOSTON AND SKEGNESS = Conservative safe seat, but voted Reform UK in 2024. High Leave vote of 75.6% in 2016.
WAVENEY VALLEY = Conservative safe seat. Voted Green due to its many agricultural businesses, as well as Adrien Ramsay’s strong campaigning tactics – contrast to Tory inactivity and neglect.
3.1 existence of pressure groups
Existence of pressure groups like Electoral Reform and Unlock Democracy imply many UK citizens are not satisfied with the FPTP system.
3.2 referendum results
1975 Referendum on the UK staying in the EU:
67% remain, 64% turnout
1997 Establishment of Scottish Parliament:
74% Yes, 25% No, 60% Turnout
1997 Welsh Assembly Referendum:
49.7% turnout, 50.3% yes
1998 Approval of the GFA:
71\% Yes, 29% No, 81% Turnout
2011 AV referendum:
32% Yes, 67% No, 42% Turnout
2014 Scottish Independence referendum:
45% Yes, 55% No, 84% Turnout
2016 Brexit referendum: ‘Get brexit done’
48% Remain, 52% Leave, 72% Turnout
City-wide referendums - Not all ref turnouts are equal - Greater Manchester Congestion Charge referendum – 46% turnout – overwhelmingly rejected it.
3.2 electoral commission
The Electoral Commission is an independent body responsible for checking the wording of one question to ensure it is objective. It also monitors rival campaigning groups. Set up by the 2000 Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act (PPERA). Weakness: is a reactive body that investigates violations after they’ve had their impact (Leave campaign overspending)
3.3 Impact of FPTP on government or type of government appointed
FPTP: single-party government. There are “clear winners” in the general elections. Also, as “the winner takes all”, the winner party has the winner bonus of elective dictatorship in the House of Commons, e.g. 1997 landslide victory of Labour (179 majority seats) paved the fway for Blair’s government to pass constitutional reform, HRA 1998, etc. without gridlocks; 2019 victory of Conservatives (80 seats majority) enabled Johnson’s government to pass the Coronavirus Act 2020 without significant challenges.
Not every time FPTP can produce a single-party government. 2010-2015 coalition government, 2017-20 19 minority government were hung parliament, so the unstable government faces more challenges during legislation, e.g. 2017 May faced challenges in Parliament tackle EU issues in Soft Brexit approach, later used sub-committees and cabinet committees to pursue soft Brexit (failed, she stepped down and called for an election in 2019)
3.3 Impact of AMS on government or type of government appointed
AMS: two-party coalition government/one-party minority government. Promote multi-party system
AMS reduced tactical voting - allow voters to vote for their preferred party in the regional seats (close list)
AMS reinforces coalition government — SNP-Green Pact (2021-)
Close list is drafted by the party and the candidates are not chosen by the voters
FPTP is still used in constituency seats — share the same problems
Vague accountability: don’t know who to turn to when issues raised
3.3 Impact of STV on government or type of government appointed
STV reinforce power-sharing due to the political nature in Northern Ireland (The Trouble and Good Friday Agreement 1998) Sinn Fein-DUP coalition
STV ensures no wasted votes as ranking candidates can ensure elected MLAs are the representing electorate’s preference (no tactical voting)
No stable government: Northern Ireland Assembly suspended for 3 times and the longest time is 5 years (2002-2007), recent suspension is during 2022-2024 due to the controversy on first minister ion and protocol. In the case of Stormont, this is perhaps more due to party political tensions than the voting system itself
Extremely confusing voting system: voters rank the candidates and votes transfer to other candidates if their 1st preference is elected (until 6 seats are filled)
Confusing accountability: 6 MLA in one constituency although increases representation but don’t know who to turn to and who has the “most power and liability”
3.3 Impact of SV on government or type of government appointed
SV: single candidate as mayor (not in use after Elections Act 2022), two party system as only the majority parties can usually get into the final round.
