Evidence (blurting) - Voting behaviour and the media Flashcards
4.1 age and voting behaviour
Millennials are 15 points less conservative than the national average which breaks the rule that the older you get the more conservative you get
Ipsos MORI (2017): 62% of voters at age 18-24 voted for Labour (27% voted for Tories), 69% of 65+ voters voted for Conservatives (19% voted for Labour)
YouGov (2019): the vote preference diverge at the age of 39
CHECK: Millennials are shattering the oldest rule in politics
In 2019 only 21% of 18-24yr old voters voted Cons. (This is 8% in 2024)
In 2019 only 14% of 70+ voters voted Labour. (This is 20% in 2024)
YouGov described age as the “biggest dividing line in British Politics”
4.1 Gender and voting behaviour
“Blair’s babes”, “Browns Sugars”, “Labour Lovelies” are examples of how the media in particular focuses on the “physical attributes of female candidates”. This could be said to be a major problem for female candidates.
2019 - Nearly all parties had clear policies to address gender with the Conservatives having a commitment to tackle issues relating to violence against women including a commitment to appoint a violence against women commissioner.
Traditionally, women were believed to favour the Conservatives - this changed under Blair in with Labour winning a larger share of the female vote under him.
1997 - Blair introduced all-women shortlists to increase the number of women in parliament.
2024 - Gender wasn’t as big a factor in the GE as an almost equal percentage voted for each party, e.g. 34% of men voted labour and 35% of women did the same, which 12% of men voted LibDems and 12% of women did the same
4.1 region and voting behaviour
The North is most likely to vote Labour e.g. Liverpool Walton with 87% vote share to Labour MP Dan Carden - last 4 GE’s Walton’s labour vote share hasn’t dropped below 72%.
2019 General Election - Conservatives broke down Labour’s so called “Red Wall” in Northern England (Dennis Skinner in Bolsover turned Conservative after 49 years of Labour control) where there were/are traditional Labour strongholds - due to Brexit and perceptions of party leadership.
2024 General Election - Seats that went to Reform UK were coastal due to their anti-immigrant rhetoric which instilled fear in their voters, thus manipulating them to vote reform
4.1 class and voting behaviour
Class dealignment after 1970s — people no longer identify with a particular social class and social mobility is promoted
2019 Red Wall: the North which is traditionally dominated by working class (C2,DE) had voted for Conservatives
1997: Blair gained votes from class AB and floating voters (~33%)
However, this can be argued that Blair’s centrist manifesto (New Labour) attracted AB votes due to the party disunity in Conservatives on European issues
Ipsos MORI: 59% of class AB voted for Labour in 1997 whereas only 40% voted for Labour in 2010; only 21% of class DE voted for Conservatives in 1997 but 41% voted for Conservatives in 2019
2024 GE, declining importance of class, 36% of ABC1 and 33% of C2DE voted Labour + 25% of ABC1 & 23% of C2DE voted Conservatives
4.1 ethnicity and voting behaviour
BAME voters are more likely to vote Labour- 2019 elections 20% of BAME voters voted for Conservative, 64% BAME voters voted Labour
However, the proportion of BAME voters in classes C2 and DE is greater than the proportion of white people in those classes, so the preference for Labour may not be based on ethnicity, but on social class
4.1 Education and voting behaviour
2017 elections - 47% of voters with degrees voted labour/lib dem, 36% voted conservative. 23% of voters with no qualifications voted labour/lib dem, 53% voted conservative
However, in 2019 the conservative party was the most popular party amongst all education groups - can make the argument that in more recent times education does not greatly influence voting behaviour
2024, 42% graduates voted Labour & only 18% graduates voted conservatives
4.2 press
“NoPress barrage didn’t work for Corbyn — The Sun increased negative media coverage of Corbyn (e.g. ‘Don’t chuck Britain in the Cor‘BIN’) and Daily Mail published a 15-page anti-Labour spread. But Labour still gained 32.1% of vote share in 2017. It could be because of factors like increased votes in age 18-24 (62% of the 18-24 voters voted Labour), popularity of party leaders, etc.
YouGov: 74% of Daily Mail readers voted Conservatives in 2017
Not every reader accepts the view of the newspaper, 26% people still didn’t vote for Conservatives
Press only reacts to the prevailing mood (opinion polls) of the time — “Save Brexit, Save Britain” (12 Dec 2019), opinion polls (Survation, 11 Dec 2019): 34% for Labour, 45% for Conservatives (actual vote share: 42.3% Conservatives, 32.1% Labour
pression of party leader: vote share of Lib Dem only increased 1% and lost seats compared to 2005
May’s refusal to participate in a live TV debate caused her to further decrease her popularity.
TV debates may not show “clear winners” in debates, e.g. 2019 Corbyn and Johnson — dull and repetitive arguments. Therefore, there is no need to appear on TV.
4.2 social media
Labour in April 2024 appointed a dedicated employee to work with influencers in TikTok and Instagram to promote a positive image of Keir Starmer. (The Guardian, 2024) Also, this is to attract young voters (18-24) as young people are tech-savvy and the largest proportion of the population in consumption of social media. Labour has gained 186 seats in the local election 2024. (+16%)
Conservatives won the 2019 general election despite a halved cost of advertisements
UKIP attracted voters in 2015 to support Brexit and push Conservatives to start the 2016 EU Withdrawal Referendum — UKIP will dilute votes from Conservatives if Tory did not take actions on Brexit
Social media is an echo chamber — it requires skills to attract the algorithm and bring new opinions to different users’ pages when they already have opinions and preferences in political parties and issues.
Labour made use of social media (viral videos) and campaigns with activists — Corbyn interjecting during Theresa May’s Facebook Live chat on ITV received 4 million views. Corbyn challenging May to a debate reached 1.4 million people.
News reposted in social media which also presented in broadcast and digital press, e.g. BBC on Instagram and TikTok, Sky News and The Guardian on X. Therefore, the information in social media is only a copy of the mass media.
2019 Conservatives had 2500 live paid-for adverts (Facebook Ad library), whereas Labour only has 250, showing that Conservatives won the election partially because of the advertisement in Facebook (arguably with a larger user population of older voters - 21% for tory in 18-24 voters, 67% for tory in 70+ voters)
Lib Dem lost 1 seat, albeit a larger amount of adverts (3000 adverts, more than the tories)
4.2 campaign - important
Although some campaigns may simply reinforce existing attitudes, others may challenge them, especially if it’s a tight race. The growth of partisan dealignment suggests that campaigns do increasingly matter as voters have become more flexible in their voting intentions
In 1992 John Major’s decision to abandon stage managed events and take his soap box to town centres was in marked contrast to Neil Kinnock’s over-confidence at the Sheffield rally. This changed the dynamic of the general election, giving the conservatives an unexpected victory
In 2010, a strong Liberal Democrat campaign, including Nick Clegg’s impressive performance in the televised debates, significantly increased the Liberal Democrat support, mostly at the expense of the conservatives, leading to a hung parliament and a conservative Liberal democrat coalition
In 2017 Jeremy Corbyn’s optimistic rallies and popular manifesto commitments such as ending tuition fees contrasted sharply with Theresa May’s uninspiring campaign appearances and the widespread unpopularity with the ‘dementia tax’. As a result, Labour drastically increased its support as the campaign progressed, from less than 30% of the vote at the beginning of the election to 40% in the general election
In 2024, Ramsay’s and Denyer’s targeting of specific constituencies and paying attention to issues important to those specific constituencies (knife crime, housing, greener farming) scored them 2 out of the 4 Green seats.
4.2 campaign - unimportant
According to some political commentators the influence of the campaign can be exaggerated since voters in general have already made up their mind
In the 1950s and 1960s the class allegiance that political parties could depend on meant that campaigns made very little difference in swaying voters. For example, the 1955 and 1959 general election campaigns simply confirmed expected Tory victories under Anthony Eden and Harold Macmillan
Although Harold Wilson’s dynamic presidential campaign in 1964 was supposed to make his appeal to the voters as a British John F Kennedy, in fact, Sir Alec Douglas-Home’s low key dogged earnestness proved more appealing. In the end, Wilson increased Labour’s share of the vote by only 0.2% on Hugh Gaitskell’s lacklustre performance in 1959
In 1970 Edward Heath’s campaign was dismissed as bland and uninspiring. Plans had been drawn up by top Conservatives to force his resignation when he lost. His victory over Harold Wilson was completely unexpected
Although praised by the media, Labour’s television-friendly 1987 campaign hardly dented Margaret Thatcher’s political domination and she was returned to government with a 102-seat majority. The satirical magazine Private Eye ironically commented on ‘Labour’s brilliant defeat.’ In 2019, the conservatives ran a more effective campaign by relentlessly focusing on Brexit. However, during the campaign, polling hardly changed, suggesting that many voters had already made up their minds before the campaign began.
In 1997, Labour had a runaway lead in the polls and party workers were therefore encouraged to adopt a “sit tight and shut up” attitude to avoid any scandals that would damage Labour’s lead. This suggests voters had largely made up their minds before heading to the polls.
4.2 policies and manifesto 2019
Dubbed the ‘Brexit’ election; another referendum on Brexit
Conservative Party slogan = ‘Get Brexit Done’; key policy that helped break the Redwall (long-standing Labour safe seats)
Jeremy Corbyn = no clear plan for Brexit; ⅓ of his voting base were Brexiteers
Labour manifesto was too wordy; Conservatives opted for a very slim manifesto (different from Theresa May in 2017)
Counter Argument: People don’t read manifestos and policies; slogans resonate better
Corbyn was extremely unpopular due to anti-semitism scandal; ran a poor campaign
Media did not like him; Sun would villainise him (‘THE SUN SAYS If Boris Johnson wins today, a bright future begins… but if Jeremy Corbyn gets in, the lights will go out for good’)
Corbyn dubbed the ‘most dangerous man to run for high office’ by the Sun.
Johnson’s personality was well-liked; Corbyn was seen as boring
Analysis: less about policy areas (unlike 1997 election)
4.1 by elections
Sunak - 13 by-elections since becoming PM in October 2022
Several produced 20%+ swings to Labour from the Conservatives (e.g. Selby, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, Blackpool South)
Rochdale by-election 2024 - George Galloway used the media to put out his pro palestine views, appealed to the muslim voters and voters concerned with the issue using media and was able to win the election.
4.2 decline in trust of broadcast media
BBC: 81% in 2003 -> 47% in 2020
ITV: 82% in 2003 -> 41% in 2020
4.2 directors of communication
- Allistair Campbell (Blair) - former political editor of the Daily Mirror
- Andy Coulson (Cameron) - former editor of News of the World
- Seamus Milne (Corbyn) - ex-Guardian journalist
4.2 Dominic Cummings
Daily Mirror and Guardian investigation into whether Dominic Cummings broke lockdown rules (2020) became lead story across social and broadcast media: print media lead on issues and more trusted broadcasters follower
4.2 Suella Braverman
influence of media in the sacking of Suella Braverman- pressure mounted on Rishi Sunak after criticism of police in regards to pro-palestine protests/demonstrations
4.2 circulation of the sun
2020- circulation of The Sun - 1,000,000
4.2 OFCOM
OFCOM - regulates the media in the UK - some requirements of the media include having balanced reporting. GB News is an example where this may not be the case as they hire
mostly conservative MPs.
Ofcom finds GB News guilty of breaking impartiality rules - March 2023 interview with Jeremy Hunt- the investigation found that in discussing these (HS2, Cost of living crisis, Corporate tax etc) matters, the programme was overwhelmingly reflective of the viewpoints of different strands of opinion within the Conservative Party.
Ofcom upheld three complaints against GB News for breaching impartiality in 2023. The GB News model of serving politicians as presenters has broken previous boundaries and is also subject to ongoing investigation.
4.2 Post Office
In January 2024, the ITV Drama “Mr Bates vs The Post Office” re-exposed the Post Office scandal to the public, where nearly 1000 postmasters were wrongly prosecuted for stealing information between 1999 and 2015. The BBC re-aired their Panorama episode on the scandal in January. This mass coverage caused the government to announce an upfront payment of £75k to postmasters.
4.2 tv influence
A 2015 election survey found that 62% of people cited television as the strongest influence in helping them form an opinion. The leaders’ debate in 2010 was watched by 10 million viewers.
4.2 Starmer and debates
In January 2024, Keir Starmer dismissed ‘nonsense’ reports that he will duck TV debates, instead stating that he is happy to debate Sunak. This is perhaps because he doesn’t want to look like a weak leader, reminiscent of how In 2017, then PM Theresa May infamously refused to debate with Jeremy Corbyn, making her appear as an insecure leader. Green Party leader Caroline Lucas summarised this succinctly: “(the) first rule of leadership is to show up… You don’t say it’s the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up.” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40105324
