Unit 2D- Decision making

Question 1

What is the decision-making process?

Answer 1

1. Gathering, interpreting, and exchanging information
2. Creating and identifying alternative courses of action
3. Implementing choice and monitoring consequences

Question 2

The rational model of decision making

Answer 2

Orientation
Planning
Decision Making
Implementation
Evaluation

Question 3

Individual decision-making biases (4)

Answer 3

Framing Bias
Overconfidence bias
Confirmation Bias
Decision Fatigue

Question 4

Individual vs Group decision making: Demonstratable tasks

Answer 4

Task that has an obvious, correct answer

Groups are better at more demonstratable tasks.

In general, group performance increases over that of individuals as the demonstrability of the task increases

Question 5

Group to Individual Transfer

Answer 5

Process where individual group
members become more accurate during
group interaction.

(People who have experience solving demonstrable problems in a group are able to transfer their performance to individual tasks, and people who anticipate group discussion are more accurate.)

Question 6

Drawbacks of group decision making in demonstratable tasks

Answer 6

Groups are much more likely to succumb to the
overconfidence bias, regardless of their actual accuracy

• Groups are more likely to exacerbate
  some shortcomings displayed by
  individuals- they make similar mistakes to individuals, but worse

More likely to skip case-specific and base-rate info

Question 7

Minorities vs Majorities

Answer 7

Re demonstratable problem solving- minorities and majorities refer to how many were initially ware of the correct solution.

Minorities and typically aware than majority

Question 8

Group Decision Rules Objectives

Answer 8

To find the alternative that the greatest number of team members prefer

• To find the alternative the fewest members object to
• Select the choice that maximizes team
  welfare

Question 9

Common decision rule

Answer 9

Majority rule- Majority vote wins

Easy and convenient

But does not promote creative tradeoffs among issues

Can also encourage subgroups and coalitions

Question 10

Other Decision Rules

Answer 10

Average Winner

Davis’ Weighted Average winner

Borda rank winner- individuals estimate the value of each alternative, each member assigns a weight- highest score is chosen

Condorcet majority rule-

Question 11

Decision making pitfalls- group- 5

Answer 11

Group Think

Escalation of commitment

Albine Paradox

Group polarization

Unethical decision making

Question 12

Group think: definitions, symptoms, lapses in behavior that affect decision making, how to avoid

Answer 12

Definition: Occurs when team members place decision consensus above all other decision priorities

Symptoms: Overestimation of the group
Close-mindedness
Pressures towards uniformity

Lapses in Behaviour: Selection Bias, failure to examine preferred choices, incomplete survey of alternatives

How to reduce/avoid: Watch group size, discuss risks, devil’s advocate

Question 13

Escalation of commitment

Answer 13

Definition: teams
persist with a losing course of action, even in the face of clear evidence to the contrary

4 aspects:
Project determinants
Psychological determinants
Social determinants
Structural determinants

How to avoid: avoid bad mood, external review of decision, avoid tunnel vision

Question 14

Abilene paradox

Answer 14

Definition: pluralistic ignorance as members choose position because they think others want it- wanna avoid conflict

Question 15

Self limiting behaviour (a person’s reluctance to air or defend their
viewpoints) can also cause Abilene paradox. Six causes are

Answer 15

1. Presence of expert
2. Presntation of compelling argument
3. Lack confidence in one’s ability to contribute
4. Group sees decision as unimportant/menaingless
5. Pressure to conform
6. Dysfunctional decision making climate

Question 16

How to avoid paradox

Answer 16

Confront the issue in a team setting

Private vote

Minimize status differences

Question 17

Group polarization

Answer 17

definition: members of a deliberating group move toward a more extreme point in whatever direction is indicted by the members’ predeliberation tendency

So individuals may have similar opinions when they are collected individually, but when you put them together, they tend to go more to the extreme side of the shared opinion

Question 18

Risky shift vs Cautious shift

Answer 18

Together people go for more extreme options: risky shift

Cautious- together they go for more safe options than even the cautious options suggested as individuals

Question 19

Why does it happen- group polarization

Answer 19

Need to be right- the tendency to look to the group to define what reality is—and the more people who hold a
particular opinion, the more right an answer appears to be

can lead people astray becuase of information dependence- they take in whatever is said as facts without checking it

Need to be liked/Normative influence - more likely then to conform to ideas of group, so they will lean more to the extremes in the shared values
Wanna be as likeable as possible so they push ahead in the extreme

Conformity- aligning values to those of the groups- involves fear of being ostracized and the need to be liked

Question 20

Unethical decision making

Answer 20

Enablers for this behaviour-

1. Rational expectations model
2. False consensus
3. Vicarious licensing
4. Desensitization

Remedies:
1. Eliminate conflicts of interest

2. Accountability for behavior
3. Contemplation