Unit 2: Population Flashcards
why are there calculations
Population distribution
Not evenly spread. Most in South East Asia like the East of China and India. Europe also. Areas of the Middle East like Turkey and Iran. West Africa too. East coast of the USA, areas of Brazil and Argentina.
Population milestones
500 million in 1471
1 billion in 1804
2 billion in 1927
3 billion in 1960
4 billion in 1974
5 billion in 1987
6 billion in 1999
7 billion in 2011
8 billion in 2020
Natural increase
The balance between births and deaths in any year (expressed as a percentage of the total population size at the beginning of that year)
Birth rate
The number of live births in a year per 1000 people alive at the beginning of that year
Death rate
The number of deaths in a year per 1000 people alive at the beginning of that year
Fertility rate
Represents the number of children that would be born alive to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years
Infant mortality rate
The number of children who die before the age of 1 per 1000 children born alive
Life expectancy
The number of year a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life
How have birth rates changed over time?
More countries have reached the 40-50 births per 1000 category but overall, birth rates have fallen
Economic reasons for different birth and fertility rates
In countries where most people are farmers and children help farm the land, birth rates are higher. In places with a lower life expectancy due to hunger or disease, parents have ‘insurance children’ to ensure some survive. In LIC’s, children are needed to support parents in their old age. Compulsory education and raising the status of women tends to lower birth rates. As more women take paid jobs, fertility rates fall. Fertility rates tend to be low in cities because children are harder to support then in rural areas and family planning is more readily available. Rural areas in MIC’s/LIC’s have higher birth rates because contraception is expensive, supplies are harder to come by and the population has less knowledge of family planning
Social reasons for different birth and fertility rates
If a country experiences large-scale immigration from a country wit usually high fertility rates, the people may bring expectations of large families with them. The age structure of the population also influences birth rate. If there are many childbearing aged people (15-454), birth rate with be higher. This is why birth rate thends to be higher in places with large numbers of working age people. In places with an imbalanced sex ration, birth rate will be depressed. Religious beliefs can oppose contraception causing higher birth rates. In times of war, birth rate is low but there can be a ‘baby boom’ immediately after. Among women who were finishing their childbearing years (40-45) in 2010, those with a less than high school qualification had the most children (2.56) and those with advanced degrees had the fewest (1.67)
Political reasons for different birth and fertility rates (Singapore mini case study)
Pro-natalist policies encourage children. The means by which the birth rate changes are use of contraception, age of marriage and proportion of people marrying. Countries where people do not marry before 28 have lower fertility rates than where the average age of marriage e of 10 years younger because they have more years available to have children. In times of hardship, the proportion of women who never marry and have children rises.
Where are the countries with the lowest death rates?
North America, South America, North of Africa and Middle East
Influences on death rates
Age structure
Health or nutrition
Urbanisation
Economic development
Gender
War
Age structure influence on death rates
When a high proportion of the population is old, the death rate is higher because old people are more likely to die than younger people
Health influence on death rates
The death rate has fallen in all countries recently because of improved agriculture, availability of food aid and growth of medical services. In some countries, death rate has risen locally due to famine, war, AIDS or Ebola but in most parts of the world mortality is declining as conditions improve. Within countries, poorer people have lower life expectancy
Urbanisation influence on death rates
Death rates are lower in cities than in rural areas in most LIC’s because of greater availability of medical services
Economic development influence on death rates
As countries develop, a higher proportion of the population live in cities where death rate is lower. As a country develops, it goes through epidemiological transition - a shift from deaths caused by infectious diseases to degenerative diseases associated with higher standards of living e.g cancer
Gender influence on death rates
Women generally live longer. Women also have lower infant mortality rates except for in a few LIC’s where there is relative neglect of female children
Benefits of choropleth maps
Easy to look at
Shows where countries are
Disadvantages of choropleth maps
Out of date data
Colours could be misleading
Categories may not be evenly spread
What is the structure of a population?
Refers to the relative variation in age and gender within a country
Rural-urban population difference
Variations in population structure within a country are most noticeable when rural-urban migration occurs
Young adults and young adults with children are more like to live in or move to urban areas from the countryside than older generations
In MEDC’s, older residents are more likely to move to the countryside through the process of counter-urbanisation
Rural-urban migration may also be sex-selective with either more males or females moving to the city depending on the types of jobs that are available
What is the sex ratio?
The number of males per 100 females in a population
Sex ratio at birth
This is not equal. In every country births are male-biased. There are biological reasons why there are slightly more boys than girls born every year. The natural sex ratio at birth is about 105 males born for every 100 females (can range from 103-107 boys)
This evens out over time as more males die at every age group than females
Skewed sex ratio at birth
In some countries this is greater than others. Particularly common in Asia and North Africa. There is clear evidence of gender selection through prenatal sex determination and selective abortion
Skew with birth order
In countries with a clear son preference, the sex ratio at birth becomes more skewed with birth order. The 3rd or 4th born is more like to be a boy than the 1st or 2nd
Infant mortality with boys
In every country boys are more likely to die in childhood than girls. Boys are more susceptible to birth complications and infectious diseases
Girl infant mortality rates with son-preference
In countries with a strong son preference, mortality rates for girls are higher than expected either through direct infanticide or through neglect and unequal treatment
Sex ratio over life course
Tends to decrease over the life course because women tend to live longer
‘Missing’ women
There are estimated to be over 130 million missing women in the world due to selective abortion and excess female deaths
Correcting the sex ratio
The banning of sex determination scanning and gender-selective abortion may have limited the increase in sex ratio at birth in some countries but didn’t fully address the problem
Development impact on sex ratio
The son preference declines with education but goes hand-in-hand with declining fertility rates and increase access to selective technology (which can increase ex ratio)
Dependency ratio
People that are either too young or too old to work
Those of working age are the ‘economically active’
Total dependency ratio calculation
(Population 0-14 + population > 64) / Working age population 15-64 x100
Child dependency ratio calculation
Population 0-14/Working age population 15-64 x100
Old-age dependency ratio calculation
Population >64/Working age population 15-64 x100
Dependency ratio scores
For HIC’s is usually between 50 and 75. Usually an even balance between young and old dependents
For LIC’s may be over 100. Most dependents are young
Limitations of the dependency ratio
Few people in HIC’s leave education before 18 and many stay in education until at least 21
Not everyone in HIC’s retire at 65. Some retire early but some choose to work longer
Not all economically active actually work. Includes stay at home parents, those unemployed but seeking work, people that are ill, disabled etc.
Many children in LIC;s are actually working well before 14
Unemployment and underemployment rates can be very high in some LIC’s
Understanding age/sex structure diagrams
The number of people in any age group will always be affected by the combined effect of death rates, birth rates, immigration and emigration
What are population pyramids?
Also called age/sex structure diagrams
They are bar graphs that show the amount of people in a country or area at each age category for each of the main genders
What is demography?
The study of human populations
The demographic transition model
A model showing expected change in birth rate and death rate through 5 stages. Can be applied to all countries. It can be used to compare countries at different levels of development at the same time or to project future changes in any given population
Stage 1 of the DTM (before 1750)
Death rates were high because of disease, famine due to bad weather and poor harvests and war
Brith rate was high due to high infant mortality so families had to make sure enough survived because children were useful for farmers and they had to support elderly parents
Birth rate rose and death rate fell when there were good harvests. When harvests were bad or there was a war or disease outbreak, birth rate fell because people married later and more didn’t marry so there was fluctuation
Overall birth and death rates were high so natural increase rate was low
Stage 2 of the DTM (1750-1880)
Death rate fell due to:
-Hygiene improved reducing death from diseases. Cotton clothes were easier to clean so replaced wool. Soap began to be used. Growing awareness of the link between hygiene and health
-In the later 19th century government tried to improve the urban environment. Municipal corporations were created and sewers were built to take away and treat waste from cities
Birth rate was little changed because factors keeping births high were still in place. Increase supply of food caused birth rate to rise in some areas
Natural increase rate rose
Stage 3 of the DTM (1880-1930)
Birth rate began to fall. Death rate had fallen so less need for ‘insurance children’. More people moved from the countryside to towns for work due to the Industrial Revolution; children were less useful in towns. Laws were passed to limit the age at which children would work and education was compulsory. Having many children was realised to reduce a families living standards
Natural increase rate fell
Stage 4 of the DTM (1930-1980)
Death rate fell further due to medicine development and better living standards
Birth rate fell further due to rapid expansion of women’s education and contraception. It fluctuated - down during period of economic austerity and up during periods of economic boom, up after wars because parents delayed having children during war. Baby booms repeat after 20-30 years because the same people are having children
Natural increase rate fell
Stage 5 of the DTM (1980-present)
Old people living longer and birth rate remains low. Death rate is higher because the greater proportion of old people are more likely to die
Birth rate rose due to the arrival of immigrant families. Immigrants from Eastern Europe were 20-30 years old so child-bearing years
Natural increase remained low
How useful is the DTM?
Its a simplification. In England in the 19th century urban areas had a lower birth rate but death rate was high due to disease. Different social classes had different experiences with death rate remaining high for poorer groups
Some stages don’t apply to all countries
Why are some comparison with England and LIC’s which have passed stages 2 and 3 of the DTM misleading?
Death rate in LIC’s has fallen for different reasons. In England, modern medicine played little part in the early fall of deaths. In LIC’s successful campaigns against diseases of cholera, polio, malaria, yellow fever, tuberculosis and smallpox were important
In LIC’s death-delaying innovations (agriculture, food imports, hygiene, medicine) all arrived in a short period of time
Birth rate was/is higher in many MIC’s/LIC’s than it ever was in England. This is because people are marrying younger and a higher proportion are marrying than in England at an equivalent stage
LIC’s are at the beginning of economic development. When England was at stage 2, it was one of the most prosperous countries in the world
Alternatives to the DTM
Most but not all countries have followed the DTM
Short-term challenges of a youthful population
Resources needed for health, education, food, water and housing
Less money left to invest in agriculture, industry and other parts of the economy
LIC’s may not have these resources so introduce family planning policies to reduce birth rate
Parents may see a large family as valuable for the work children can do
People in poor countries rely on children in old age due to the lack of state welfare benefits
The demographic dividend
As large young populations move up the age ladder over time, there is a large population of economically active young workers
If a country can attract sufficient investment to create enough jobs for these people, tax income for the country will dramatically increase allowing the country to improve its people’s quality of life
This situation can cause an upward spiral of economic growth called the economic dividend
What are 2 caveats of the economic dividend?
It is time bound
It is not automatic