Unit 2 - Decision Making

Question 1

human factors looks at the interaction between _

Answer 1

humans and systems

Question 2

What is the importance of decision making?

Answer 2

how decisions impact safety, efficiency, and effectiveness in various domains

Question 3

decision making consists of choosing between _

Answer 3

alternative courses of action available and enjoying or suffering the consequences of the chosen actions

Question 4

what are the 2 theories about decision making?

Answer 4

normative and descriptive

Question 5

define normative, as a decision making theory

Answer 5

a standard for the type of thinking that is optimal for achieving the goal (ie. how things should or ought to be)

Question 6

define descriptive, as a decision making theory

Answer 6

theories of how people typically think and make decisions (eg. adding psychology and emotions into decision making)

Question 7

decisions can be described in simple theoretical terms as consisting of 4 components: (normative decision making)

Answer 7

1) a set of actions
2) one or more events that describe the uncontrolled future
3) The outcomes and consequences of each action given each event
4) The chances favouring each event

Question 8

describe the 4 components of decisions in the example of deciding whether to bring an umbrella to school

Answer 8

1) set of actions
- carry an umbrella
- not carry an umbrella
2) one or more events that describe the uncontrolled future
- rain
- no rain
3) the outcomes and consequences of each action given each event
4) the chances favouring each event

Question 9

what are the consequences of carrying an umbrella and having rain as an event

Answer 9

get slightly damp, lug around the umbrella all day, perhaps lose the umbrella (but dry)

Question 10

what are the consequences of carrying an umbrella and having no rain as an event

Answer 10

lug around the umbrella, maybe lost it, have to explain to your friends why you are carrying an umbrella on a sunny day

Question 11

what are the consequences of not carrying an umbrella and having rain as an event

Answer 11

get very wet and uncomfortable, drip all over your test

Question 12

what are the consequences of not carrying an umbrella and having no rain as an event

Answer 12

nothing (comfortable)

Question 13

in decision theory, there are statements about how people ought to make decisions, most of these theories start with a measure called _

Answer 13

utility

Question 14

define utility

Answer 14

a numerical measure of the relative worth of all the physical outcomes associated with a decision
- ordering the physical outcomes from least to most desired

Question 15

order the umbrella and rain scenario into least to most desired outcomes

Answer 15

• no umbrella no rain
• umbrella and no rain
• umbrella and rain
• rain no umbrella

Question 16

describe the notion of utility

Answer 16

• after ordering the consequences
• assigning values to these physical outcomes that truly reflect their relative worth

Question 17

according to the theory of _, the least and most desired outcomes can be arbitrarily assigned the respective values of _

Answer 17

Neumann and Morgenstern (1953)
- 0 and 1

Question 18

the utility values of the others can be found through a comparison between each of the other outcomes individually as a _ nd the standard gamble consisting of a _

Answer 18

certainty
risky situation

Question 19

describe the wheel of fortune (notion of utility)

Answer 19

• take the outcome where you carry an umbrella and it rains “3”
• would you prefer that outcome for certain, or, the standard gamble (between 1-4)

Question 20

(wheel of fortune) by repeating this procedure where the final outcome is
- any decrease made will always cause you to select the _
- any increase will cause you to always pick a _

Answer 20

indifference
- standard gamble
- certain outcome

Question 21

what happens net in the wheel of fortune (notion of utility)

Answer 21

• now we can have a measure of the utility fo each outcome in this decision
• similar techniques are used in perceived loudness or perceived tonal frequencies

Question 22

Under the topic of further understanding human’s decision, we have the concepts of

Answer 22

• expected value
• conditional probability
• Bayes’ theorem

Question 23

define rational decision maker

Answer 23

play any game with an expected positive return regardless of the sums involved

Question 24

people who focus on _ will not play any game even if it can be expected profitable

Answer 24

subjective utility

Question 25

describe bayes’ theorem

Answer 25

• process of revising probability estimates as new data are receives is the subject of baye’s theorem
• provides an optimal model of how such probability revision should be carried out
• ex. at the begining of the semester you were able to guess, but may have felt unsure (the probability you will receive all As)
• as the term progresses, and you get your grades back, your estimates should improve

Question 26

define posterior probability and prior probability (conditional probability, bayes’ theorem)

Answer 26

posterior probability: the probability after data have been obtained

prior probability: the probability before getting any new data

Question 27

human decision making is an important part of many tasks:

Answer 27

• are humans’ decisions rational?
• human biases?
• systems and environments that we create should aim to enhance necessary sensory processes and reduce interferences