Uncertainty

Question 1

Uncertainty

Answer 1

A lock of understanding and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow or solutions to pursue.

Question 2

Ambiguity

Answer 2

A state of being unclear, having difficulty in identifying the cause of events, or having multiple options from which to choose.

Question 3

Complexity

Answer 3

A characteristic of a program or project or its environment that is difficult to manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity.

Question 4

Volatility

Answer 4

The possibility for rapid and unpredictable change.

Question 5

Risk

Answer 5

An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives.

Question 6

Environmental aspects that contribute to uncertainty

Answer 6

Economic factors

Such as volatility in prices, availability of resources, ability to borrow funds and inflation/deflation

Technical considerations

Such as new or emerging technology, complexity associated with systems, and interfaces.

Legal or legislative constraints or requirements

Physical environment as it pertains to safety, weather, and working conditions

Ambiguity associated with current or future conditions

Social and market influences shaped by opinion and media

Political influences, either external or internal to the organization

Question 7

Options for responding to uncertainty

Answer 7

Gather information
Prepare for multiple outcomes
Set-based design
Build in resilience

Question 8

Resilience

Answer 8

The ability to adapt and respond quickly to unexpected changes.

Question 9

Conceptual Ambiguity

Answer 9

The lack of effective understanding

when people use similar terms or arguments in different ways

Question 10

Situational Ambiguity

Answer 10

When more than one outcome is possible

Having multiple options to solve a problem

Question 11

Experiments

Answer 11

A well-designed series of experiments can help identify cause-and-effect relationships or, at least, can reduce the amount of ambiguity.

Question 11

Progressive elaboration

Answer 11

The iterative process of increasing the level of detail in a project management plan as greater amounts of information and more accurate estimates become available.

Question 11

Prototypes

Answer 11

Can help distinguish the relationships between different variables.

Question 12

Ways to work with complexity that are systems-based

Answer 12

Decoupling
Simulation

Question 13

Ways to work with complexity that entail reframing

Answer 13

Diversity - brainstorming with the project team to open up divergent ways of seeing the system

Balance - Balancing the type of data used rather than only using forecasting data or data that reports on the past or lagging indicators provides a broader perspective.

Question 14

Ways to work with complexity that is process based

Answer 14

Iterate - build iteratively or incrementally

Engage - build in opportunities to get stakeholder engagement

Fail Safe - build in redundancy or elements that can provide a graceful degradation of functionality

Question 15

Five alternative strategies for dealing with threats

Answer 15

Avoid
Escalate
Transfer
Mitigate
Accept

Question 16

Avoid as a threat strategy

Answer 16

When the project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact.

Action taken PRO-ACTIVELY –> high control

Question 17

Escalate as a threat strategy

Answer 17

When a threat is outside the scope of the project or that the proposed response would exceed the project manager’s authority.

Question 18

Transfer as a threat strategy

Answer 18

Shifting ownership of a threat to a third party to manage the risk and to bear the impact if the threat occurs.

e.g. Car insurance –> risk to 3rd party

Question 19

Mitigate as a threat strategy

Answer 19

Action is taken to reduce the probability of occurrence and/or impact of a threat.

Note: Early mitigation action is often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the threat has occurred.

Opposite of enhance; e.g. Helmet would (could) mitigate severe head injury

Question 20

Accept as a threat strategy

Answer 20

Acknowledges the existence of a threat, but no proactive action is planned.

Can include developing a contingency plan that would be triggered if the event occurred OR it can include passive acceptance, which means doing nothing.

Powerless to change –> weather

Question 21

5 strategies for dealing with Opportunities

Answer 21

Exploit
Escalate
Share
Enhance
Accept

Question 22

Exploit as an opportunity strategy

Answer 22

The project team acts to ensure that an opportunity occurs.

Make sure that is does happen –> high control

Question 23

Escalate as an opportunity strategy

Answer 23

Opportunity is outside the scope of the project or that the proposed response would exceed the project manager’s authority.

Question 24

Share as an opportunity strategy

Answer 24

Involves allocating ownership of an opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture the benefit of that opportunity.

Question 25

Enhance as an opportunity strategy

Answer 25

The project team acts to increase the probability of occurrence or impact of an opportunity.

Question 26

Accept as an opportunity strategy

Answer 26

Acknowledge its existence but no proactive action is planned.