To Go Over Flashcards
Possivle reforms ec
Direct election
Automatic plan
Proportional system
Maine system
should ec be reformed
Loa y
Federalism
Clear results/strong mandate/past sucess
Representation of states (ie campaigning)
national aprtyu convention normal functions undermined
Decisions about candidate nominated have already been made due to prianeis and caucuas convention rather than choose
Trad runningg mate announced 3rd day convention recently delcared earlier 2016 trunmp 3 day before
Parties try to avoid heated debates on policies at their npcs because they fear the nedia willl focus on debates as evidence party division
Npcs no longer improtanct
Aug 2016 poll asked how important conventions would be in influencing peoples vote- 12% said would be v important
Undermine formal function
Modern conventions appear predictable staged coreographed, headline speakers as just as likely to be celebrity as serious politician
Hours of tv coverideg dedicated to convention has declined in recent years
Npcs still improtant
Can idnetify political stars of the future- 2004 democrat npc obama made key note speech
Ina close race may have some influence on outcome of election- bennett 2004 republican convention more sucessful than democrats further detrninat for bush winning
Informal factors
Heal party rifts developed in primaries- ie loosing candiates may make speeched for winning candiate as sanders did for biden in 2020
Formally call primary season- no rv d
Gain media attention communicate ideas to wider audience- convention lead to bounce in opinon pokls- candiate may increase popularity after excellent speech- hillary 2016
ec 2016
Trump 306 ecvs clinton 232
Clinton had 3 mill mroe pop votes than trump
Record 7 faithless electiors
5 battleground states marginal trunp won- 48.6% florida- few thousand in key states
Carter
Lost 1980 campaign to reagan
Had to cope with diff primary challenger kennedy- reminded voters about internal democrat party divisions
Econ not ealthy
Republican srival=- reagon v effective charasmatic, film star
Turnout 2020
Highest over 100y
66.7% ocmp 60% 2016
Factors detemrining biden win
Demographics and turnout
Issues
Campaigns
Biden won demographics and turnout
10 battel states inc florida and arisona focused on
Sucess in states high ecvs- retained blue wall rustbelt in midwest
Won female 56%, black 87% and hispanic 66% vote, under 30 62, college educaton 55
Biden won issues p
Pandemic 17% key issue
Econ 50% said determinant
Etv that the system for nominating presidential candidates is in need of reform
Intro- loa no
Since 1968 debate how to enhance the uqality and democratic nature of the presidential candiate nomination process
1968 democrat party followed refomrs proposed by the mcgovern frase comm after catestrophic selection of humprey
Changes increase public involvenent- removal of per review longe rprimary campaign initiated
Critics timingm cost low turnout, lack peer review
1968 reforms compromise lagrely- enabled increased participation candiates more likely to be committed skilled popular
Timing
Fundraisng anc cost
Participation
Reform nominate president- timeing y
Reform set a date in which declaratiosn of individ runing for presidency should be made
Nomination process length has increased
Trump announced running for 2024 in nov 2022- endurance test
Presidential campaign trivialised over long period of time- 2023 presidential campign lack of policies promoted by candidates make smore personality than policy politics
Reform president nomination- fundraisng and cost
Reform- limit the extent to which fundraising could take place- cap on amount
Duration results in empahsis on fundraisnig- apparently well qualified candidates drop out of process early- francis suarez aug 2023 republican, low on money not on gop debate as not considered top 10
Money most important than politices and presidential uqualities
Reform nominate presidnet- fundraisng and cost no
Even once nominated presidential candidate needs to cont to fundraise in ordeer to run their presidential campiagn
Fudnraising not most imp- bloomburg 600mill tv and digital ads on super tuesday states and not sleced-2016 trump not most fundraised yet won
Reforms not worked- constition free speech protected, ability to donate and fundraise
Participation reform presidential nomination
Low turnout caucuses especially signif less democratic and refletcion of general public- since 1996 rare above 25% in primary and caucsuses
Those who do vote unrep of whole nation- more ideologically driven, perhaps even radical with danger extremist candiate
Lack preer review, candiates selected may have a lack of experience
Reform- pre primaries mini conventions- political heavwights draw up candiate shrotlist before presented to public
Participation presidnetial nomiantion no
Very democratic enab,ed increase participation, public not political heavyweight choice
Outsider choice clinton obama
Extreme candidates not case, moderate- biden beet sanders and warren 2020- romney beat snatorum in 2012
Trunout not always low- nh 2018 democrats primary 52% may vary with percieved importance of priamry- esp more at start
Demographic and turnouut presidential election resuls
Core voters and win independents
Eg 2016 trump win white working class smale in midewest rustbelt seats proved sucessful
Incumbency and presidnetial eletcion
Loa- on surface yes but depends
Lichtman- incumbants are difficult, but not impossible to beat
Experience in office
Name recognition media attention and campaign resources
Lack of primary challenge
Incumency and presidential election- camapign resources and recognition no
Charismatic challengers can also attract meia attention- carter 1980 and bush snr 1992- lost out to charismatic challengers reagan and clinton
Since 1968 campaigns have increased in length, mroe time for potential challnegers to gain name recogniton
Tv debates great for opp- 1980 most agree reagan beat carter in debate
Clinton
Charismatic opp still strong campaign team
Biy biger spending not always win
I
Factors affect outcomee congressinoal elections
Ref on president
Local issues
Gerrymandering, incumbent adv 90% stay incumbents
Individ performance
Turnout levels can affect congresonal election result
Coattails effect
Congressional elections as ref on presdient
2014 poll found that 52% registered voters intended to vote not based on strengths on congressional candiates but on president
Cpmhrssopma; ca,[ohms omcreased mayopma; osises
Pop support president can help - gwb 9!1 rep gain 2 in senate and 8 in house
2022 democrats ave lost control house majority- biden low approval rating
Individ performance congressional election
Individ members of congress are often more popular than party overall- davidgen and oleszec two congresses
Members both houses curtail their reputation with ‘folks back home
Prok barell politics
If in marginal more on character
Incmenr adv most important factor detering resulst and mid term elections
Fundrasing
Ref on president
Local election
Incumbent mid terms0 fundraisng no
Democrats and allies spent nearly half bn n ads abortion- 108mil r
2022 16bn overall
Reasons low turnout
Practical barrier
Number and frequency election
Predictability
attempts for campaign finance reform
Fed election campaign at 1974 feca
Grants and match spending if accept limit on spending
Prevent wealthy donors, 3300 individ, 5000 pac/candiates
Bipartisan campaign reform act 2002- bcra
Banned soft money- money raised spent on education but really just cmapign
Banned issue ads paid by big ig run up election
Superpac
Independent expendaiture only comm
Con restore our future
Lib democrats- priority usa- used support obama and clinton
2020 2000 actual pas, 3.4bn
Etv ufthrer cmapaign finance reform urgently needed usa
Intro- y
Debate lib v con
Since 2010
Reduce cost us election- unconstitution
Reduce influence wealthy donors
Fairer elections
Examine reasons us elections cost much mroe than uk elections
Constitution- free speech upheld, loopholes, uk more effective laws
Advocacy- tv as us, uk pary political broadcaset- cultural
Length0 strutuaal- mcgovern fraxer 2021 trump for 2024
Uk about 6 weeks
Geographical
American larger
Incument adv financial
2020 senate republican leadr mcconnel needed to spend av $34 per vote to retainh his senate seat eseat comp 92 per vote for democratic challenger
Franking privileges
Cost of mailing to constituents provided by conrgess
May be used for eelectoral purposes
Franing requests far higher election years- 651 jan. 1500 in apr 2020
Centrists demcoractis
1980s need more moderate to respond election
Modernise trad denmocrat party- bridge gap left and right- clinton 2 election victory with new democratic coalition
Ron kind- wisconsin
Social and moral issues democrats united
Support lgbt rights
Rpo choice
Environment- biden green new deal 1.7trn
Immigration reform- dream act
Ending death penalty
Warren- mroe refuggees
Macnchin- pro life, tougher law immigration
Welfare ans social justice democrats united
Healthcare right rather than privilege- suport obamacare
Greater role gov in providing a safety net for most vulnerable
Stornegr paternity/maternity rights
Reduction in student tuition fees
Left free uni
Warren and sanders medicare for all
Republican aprty not united econ
Taxes divided
Pew research cnetre 31% r more willing back candidate raise tax on wealthy, 34% no, 34% not caree
Welfare and social justcie not agree r
One r congressman cao iowa suppotr obamacare aca
Yougov 2023 47% young republicans support more gun controls, 23% older r
71% gov aid to poor more harm than good, yet poor under 30k 48% said more good than harm
Fp compare tow parties
Whilst both support ukraine and trad israel
D- some against israel, bring foriegn war to end, end us saudi led war in uememn
R retsore our nations power
Con and r welfare and social jsutcie similar
Small gov
Self reliance
Con 2 child policy cap- means tested benefist
Increase immigration control rwanda and wall
Polarisation in usa
Culture war
1990s pat buchannon- there is a war going on in our country for the soul of america
2004 presdienial election- ‘faith flag and family election’- moral issues most important
Recent years tea party moves focus on the size of us gov
Hyperpartisanship
Brownstein the 2nd civl war
Not a culture war
Fiorina
Culture war?
Moderate factions, bipartisanship
3rd parties limimted sucess why
Ideological barriers
Electoral barriers
Financial and comm barriers
Legal barriers
Financila and comm barriers 3rd parteis
Modern comapign costs lots
6bn 2022- jo jorgenon 3 mill
Need 5% popo ote in previosun election v diff
Etv ys patries dont matter
Rep - ig or partisan
Role in congress
Elections
ys parties dont matter role in congress usa
Trad role dont play signif role in congress- valid view in era of bi partisanship when broder was writing
Ocassional events of bipartisanship when party leaders seem matter less- urkaine war fundeing 13 mil hunanitarian and miiliarty aid, support isral mar 2022
Joe machin and sue collins moderates of each
Usa parteis dont matter role in congress no
High levels party unity in congressional voting and high levels partisanship ie appt- kavanaugh voters split rep for all
Became much mroe diff presidents to secure their priority in era of divided gov becasue ocmpromises between party is so hard to achieve- trump busget shitdown, bul dback betetr plan
Us parties dont matter eletcions y
Parties lost control of candiate selection since 1968- us elections tend to be more candidate centred than party centred
Role of superpacs 2010 citizens united- hilary the movie, free speech and rich donors imp
Vital source of funds for cadidateas rather than parties
Election no us parties dont matter
Rnc repm dnc dem have become more organised in recent years- role in election campaigns, level of organisation not as big as britain in nat comm
Endorsenments- help w trump for example, nra
Outsiders dont always win primaries biden won
Cultural differences patries
Uk parties are emore ideological coherent than us- whips
Huperpartisan and polarised more in usa than uk with gerrymandering whilst uk indepnednet body electoral committee
Liberal example polciies
Bernie sanders- 2020 camapign advocate free education
Universla healthcare
Green new deal
Moderatees republicans
Lisa murkowski and susan collins- introduced bill 2022 codify right to an abortion
Social conservatieves actions in rep
May 2022 rep vote with manchin block codification of abortion righst in usa
Trump plans for 2024
Agenda47
Make tax cuts permenant
‘Drill baby drill’ end all restrictions on fossil fuel protection- environental policy
Tough on immigration- promising the ‘largest deportation in us histroy’, finish teh wall- currently half one, exec order to rrestore entry ban on visoitros from certain muslim majority countries- afghanistan, iran
End brithdright citizenship= children of illegla immigranst bron in usa us citizen
Domestic law and order- military intervention to control portests, death penalty for drug dealers
Education- teachers must show that they ‘embrace patrioyic values’, estbalish a new ‘anti woke’ uni
Biden plans for 2024
Restore nationwide abortion rights- would encourage congress to pass law enshiren nationswide abortion righst- codify
Ban on assault weapons and better backrgound checks,
Reatempt introduce subsidised childcare and more generous parental leave
New voting rights acts- need to reintroduce 1965 act, voter id laws problem
Raise taxes on comapnises and the wealthy in order to pay for increased spendig
Reattempt to cnacel studentdebt- sc ruled agianst
By sector ig
Mckeever definition
Business and trade- us chamber of cmerce
Agricultural groups- 2023 46 mill spent- inc fertiliser institute, texas farm bereau
Unions 90% to democrats- carpenters and joiners union 5 mill
Public intereest consumer fed of america, scrutiny gov actionasa dn acim protect and advance consumer interests
Single issue-nra
Environ
Why ig so numerouis and active in usa
Constitutional factors
Us political culture
Ideology
Role of gov
So many ig constitutional
Sops and federalism lots access points
Principle open gov
1st ammendment constitutional right to freedom of association asn assembluy
Powerful judiciary- us courts more open pg activity- use sc and lower courts
Obergefell v hosegs 148 anmicus briefs and moore v harper gerrymandering common cuase
Donations ufnding
4,000 registered pacs donate up to 5k/yr/candiate- 2020 top nat association of realtors at 3.9mill
Superpac after 2010 - ie restore our future, priorities action usa, spend unlimited funds competing on behalf prefered candiate
According to open secrets 2,200 super pacs 2.1bn in 2020 attack ads- main adelson
Regulation on lobbying
Honest leadership and open gov act 2007
Ex senators/senior member exec wait 2y before join lobby company
Lobby prohibited from gving gifts to members of congress
Must be ful disclosure of all lobbyinst action
20009 obama exec order to expand to cover white house staff restriction on lobby
Ig inflence appt
Lobby senate, compile dossiers,
2009 lib pgs for sotomayor- w planned parenthood- yet con christian coalition and pro life operation rescue against
Ig inflence appt
Lobby senate, compile dossiers,
2009 lib pgs for sotomayor- w planned parenthood- yet con christian coalition and pro life operation rescue against
Ig pr ad campaign
Nra tv ad to put pressure on obama and congress not pass new guun control laws after 2012 sandy hook shooting
Money infleunce pg sucess
Lobbying adn ads expensive
Pharmas 20 mill on 21st cares act 2016 or ira
Pas and superpacs- lack of sucess- jeb bush right to rise 2016 goop nominations but hilary the movie and god made turmp
Methods determine sucess
Avaialbility access points- most states all 50 and all branches
Local level washington alliance on gun responsibility group suceseding in changeing in state washington sucess state level
Combinatoion tactics cose relationship legilsature prfessional legislatiure grassroots
Extreme taxtucs operation resuce
Electioneering lcv dirty dozen. Nra target indiana senator
Pluralism theroy
Dahl no one can dominate as wide range enables compromise
Elitism
Mills
Hyperpluralism
Raunch
So many pg compete
Cannot reach agreement
Party decline
The parties over
Broder
Limits on ig
Constitution
Pluralism
Equal and opposite
Campaign finance reforms
Legal and professinoal lobbying
Etv pg too powerful
Constitution
Legislation
Opp and equal forces
Etv ys pg more powerful than polictical parties
Rep and patricipation
Election time
Policy and legislation
Sc
representation and particiaption pg more than parties
Parties broad pg narrow
Rep pg nra and league of conservation voters
Pro life on stance in gop but nat right to life focus on one issue- annual march to life
Public disllisionmeny- 80% + memer one ig, no 3rd parties
Rep and participation pg more than parties no
Partisanship
Rep constituenceies
Election time- pg more aprties
2002 bcra banned soft money decreasing role parties in funding election time- yet do still with superpacs
1968 mcgovern fraser report parties lost control candidate selection- 16 signif role nra 2012
Endorcsed senator= defeat lugar
Broder party decline
Election time party more than ig
Rnc and dnc members and help coop party campaigns
Opolicy and legislature pg more than party
Little coop 2p arties- obamacare gop opp
Interests of ama and phrama influence ammend clause alloweing heaper improt of drugs from elepcanada
Gun control democrats opp yet hav eto conede due to nra pressure
Ig spending support candidates
Nra 4.3mill turmp 2002 and 12.2 mill opp biden
Formal congressman lobbists
2022 453 former membrs of congress worked as lobbyist or senior advisors offer valuable info on legislative process and contxts
Example of infleunce by lobbyists effective
2016 rep scott tipton introduced a bill to allow drilling in an envrionemntally sensitive area
Lang of bill appeared tohave been written by oil comapny sg interests, one of top donrs
Etv th
Etv that ig enhance democracy
Loa no
Participation
Rep
Accountability
Ig enhance democrayc participation no
Spend vast sums money- buy voice
Superpacs- esp since 2010 citizens united ruling
Lobbying passive form participation- open secrets 3.3bn in 2020
Us chamber of commerce spend 100 mill on these services- a lot considereing agricultural sector spect 46 mill- fertilisers institute
May threaten democracy- operation rescue pro life kill 8 doctors consduct abortion, memer lambs of chirst one doctor in 1998
Anti israel protests many jewish individ fell threatened and unsfae in country live in-
Ig enhance democrcy rep yes
Vested parties seek influence policuy making to represent ideological belieffs and proiiorties and benefit society- moore vs harper 2023- debated ability of state legislature to redistict - really gerrymander- without having to justify themselves to state courts- signif n carolina district redrawn race boundries- ig common cause and southern coalition for social justice
Represent minority rights- obergefell v hodges case 2015- lgtq and lib groups=. Foundation for moral law
Religious groups— brief for california council of churches
Ig enhance democracy non rep
Amicas briefs ignored
Ideologically based appt trump create 6v3 con court- virtually impossible for many lib rgoups to influence moral cases- dobbs v jackson for womens health organisation 2022 - reverse cnstitutional right to abortion
Ineuqality- welathy mroe- elitism- greenpeace or extinction rebelion againnst oil companies shell alliance of western enegru companies- lonny
Ig pharam rep pharam companies 2.5bn 2008-2018 to prevent strict price regilation to preserve profits
Most seen with deraprim a life saving anti parasitic drug increased in price 12.5 to 750 per tablet overnight in 2015- public interest slimited
Uk electioneering
Parliament project
50:50 pal=rkianet
Incourage women run elected positions
Lobby political parties to select women
Emilys list
Democratci female pro choice
Inc senators warren and harris
