To Go Over Flashcards
Possivle reforms ec
Direct election
Automatic plan
Proportional system
Maine system
should ec be reformed
Loa y
Federalism
Clear results/strong mandate/past sucess
Representation of states (ie campaigning)
national aprtyu convention normal functions undermined
Decisions about candidate nominated have already been made due to prianeis and caucuas convention rather than choose
Trad runningg mate announced 3rd day convention recently delcared earlier 2016 trunmp 3 day before
Parties try to avoid heated debates on policies at their npcs because they fear the nedia willl focus on debates as evidence party division
Npcs no longer improtanct
Aug 2016 poll asked how important conventions would be in influencing peoples vote- 12% said would be v important
Undermine formal function
Modern conventions appear predictable staged coreographed, headline speakers as just as likely to be celebrity as serious politician
Hours of tv coverideg dedicated to convention has declined in recent years
Npcs still improtant
Can idnetify political stars of the future- 2004 democrat npc obama made key note speech
Ina close race may have some influence on outcome of election- bennett 2004 republican convention more sucessful than democrats further detrninat for bush winning
Informal factors
Heal party rifts developed in primaries- ie loosing candiates may make speeched for winning candiate as sanders did for biden in 2020
Formally call primary season- no rv d
Gain media attention communicate ideas to wider audience- convention lead to bounce in opinon pokls- candiate may increase popularity after excellent speech- hillary 2016
ec 2016
Trump 306 ecvs clinton 232
Clinton had 3 mill mroe pop votes than trump
Record 7 faithless electiors
5 battleground states marginal trunp won- 48.6% florida- few thousand in key states
Carter
Lost 1980 campaign to reagan
Had to cope with diff primary challenger kennedy- reminded voters about internal democrat party divisions
Econ not ealthy
Republican srival=- reagon v effective charasmatic, film star
Turnout 2020
Highest over 100y
66.7% ocmp 60% 2016
Factors detemrining biden win
Demographics and turnout
Issues
Campaigns
Biden won demographics and turnout
10 battel states inc florida and arisona focused on
Sucess in states high ecvs- retained blue wall rustbelt in midwest
Won female 56%, black 87% and hispanic 66% vote, under 30 62, college educaton 55
Biden won issues p
Pandemic 17% key issue
Econ 50% said determinant
Etv that the system for nominating presidential candidates is in need of reform
Intro- loa no
Since 1968 debate how to enhance the uqality and democratic nature of the presidential candiate nomination process
1968 democrat party followed refomrs proposed by the mcgovern frase comm after catestrophic selection of humprey
Changes increase public involvenent- removal of per review longe rprimary campaign initiated
Critics timingm cost low turnout, lack peer review
1968 reforms compromise lagrely- enabled increased participation candiates more likely to be committed skilled popular
Timing
Fundraisng anc cost
Participation
Reform nominate president- timeing y
Reform set a date in which declaratiosn of individ runing for presidency should be made
Nomination process length has increased
Trump announced running for 2024 in nov 2022- endurance test
Presidential campaign trivialised over long period of time- 2023 presidential campign lack of policies promoted by candidates make smore personality than policy politics
Reform president nomination- fundraisng and cost
Reform- limit the extent to which fundraising could take place- cap on amount
Duration results in empahsis on fundraisnig- apparently well qualified candidates drop out of process early- francis suarez aug 2023 republican, low on money not on gop debate as not considered top 10
Money most important than politices and presidential uqualities
Reform nominate presidnet- fundraisng and cost no
Even once nominated presidential candidate needs to cont to fundraise in ordeer to run their presidential campiagn
Fudnraising not most imp- bloomburg 600mill tv and digital ads on super tuesday states and not sleced-2016 trump not most fundraised yet won
Reforms not worked- constition free speech protected, ability to donate and fundraise
Participation reform presidential nomination
Low turnout caucuses especially signif less democratic and refletcion of general public- since 1996 rare above 25% in primary and caucsuses
Those who do vote unrep of whole nation- more ideologically driven, perhaps even radical with danger extremist candiate
Lack preer review, candiates selected may have a lack of experience
Reform- pre primaries mini conventions- political heavwights draw up candiate shrotlist before presented to public
Participation presidnetial nomiantion no
Very democratic enab,ed increase participation, public not political heavyweight choice
Outsider choice clinton obama
Extreme candidates not case, moderate- biden beet sanders and warren 2020- romney beat snatorum in 2012
Trunout not always low- nh 2018 democrats primary 52% may vary with percieved importance of priamry- esp more at start
Demographic and turnouut presidential election resuls
Core voters and win independents
Eg 2016 trump win white working class smale in midewest rustbelt seats proved sucessful
Incumbency and presidnetial eletcion
Loa- on surface yes but depends
Lichtman- incumbants are difficult, but not impossible to beat
Experience in office
Name recognition media attention and campaign resources
Lack of primary challenge
Incumency and presidential election- camapign resources and recognition no
Charismatic challengers can also attract meia attention- carter 1980 and bush snr 1992- lost out to charismatic challengers reagan and clinton
Since 1968 campaigns have increased in length, mroe time for potential challnegers to gain name recogniton
Tv debates great for opp- 1980 most agree reagan beat carter in debate
Clinton
Charismatic opp still strong campaign team
Biy biger spending not always win
I
Factors affect outcomee congressinoal elections
Ref on president
Local issues
Gerrymandering, incumbent adv 90% stay incumbents
Individ performance
Turnout levels can affect congresonal election result
Coattails effect
Congressional elections as ref on presdient
2014 poll found that 52% registered voters intended to vote not based on strengths on congressional candiates but on president
Cpmhrssopma; ca,[ohms omcreased mayopma; osises
Pop support president can help - gwb 9!1 rep gain 2 in senate and 8 in house
2022 democrats ave lost control house majority- biden low approval rating
Individ performance congressional election
Individ members of congress are often more popular than party overall- davidgen and oleszec two congresses
Members both houses curtail their reputation with ‘folks back home
Prok barell politics
If in marginal more on character
Incmenr adv most important factor detering resulst and mid term elections
Fundrasing
Ref on president
Local election
Incumbent mid terms0 fundraisng no
Democrats and allies spent nearly half bn n ads abortion- 108mil r
2022 16bn overall
Reasons low turnout
Practical barrier
Number and frequency election
Predictability
attempts for campaign finance reform
Fed election campaign at 1974 feca
Grants and match spending if accept limit on spending
Prevent wealthy donors, 3300 individ, 5000 pac/candiates
Bipartisan campaign reform act 2002- bcra
Banned soft money- money raised spent on education but really just cmapign
Banned issue ads paid by big ig run up election
Superpac
Independent expendaiture only comm
Con restore our future
Lib democrats- priority usa- used support obama and clinton
2020 2000 actual pas, 3.4bn
Etv ufthrer cmapaign finance reform urgently needed usa
Intro- y
Debate lib v con
Since 2010
Reduce cost us election- unconstitution
Reduce influence wealthy donors
Fairer elections
Examine reasons us elections cost much mroe than uk elections
Constitution- free speech upheld, loopholes, uk more effective laws
Advocacy- tv as us, uk pary political broadcaset- cultural
Length0 strutuaal- mcgovern fraxer 2021 trump for 2024
Uk about 6 weeks
Geographical
American larger
Incument adv financial
2020 senate republican leadr mcconnel needed to spend av $34 per vote to retainh his senate seat eseat comp 92 per vote for democratic challenger
Franking privileges
Cost of mailing to constituents provided by conrgess
May be used for eelectoral purposes
Franing requests far higher election years- 651 jan. 1500 in apr 2020
Centrists demcoractis
1980s need more moderate to respond election
Modernise trad denmocrat party- bridge gap left and right- clinton 2 election victory with new democratic coalition
Ron kind- wisconsin
Social and moral issues democrats united
Support lgbt rights
Rpo choice
Environment- biden green new deal 1.7trn
Immigration reform- dream act
Ending death penalty
Warren- mroe refuggees
Macnchin- pro life, tougher law immigration