Democracy And Participation- Elections Flashcards
Electoral college
Decide who will recieve their particular states ecv
Compromise as couldnt agree on direct election or with congress
Group of electors nominated each state
Fptp system
Electors are not forced to vote for the candidate who won popular vote in state- faithless voter
Possible reforms to ec
Direct election
Automatic plan
Proportional system
Maine system
Possible reform- direct election
Abolish ec and replace one person one vote
All votes across country are counted and popualr vote wins
Need constitutional ammendment- unlikely
Automatic plan
Used in over half states
Keeps ec but abolishes electors, ecb awared to winning candidate in state automaticall
But ff wanted free agents
Proportional system
Ecvs in direct proportion to % of votes won in each state
Fairer on 3rd parties.independants- in 192- ross perot would have won 100 ecvs rather than none
But unlikely as disadv two main parties whos support is require df ro any signif reform to be actioned
Maine system
Maine and nabraska
Ecvs allocated on district by district basis plus two for oveerall winner
But research suggestst can lead to even more disproportionate result than current system
Should the ec be reformed
Federalism
Clear result and strong mandate
Represetation of states/cohesiveness of system
Past success
Loa-yes
Should ec be reformed- no federalism
Protects and reinforces principle of federalism
Gives small states as a voice as always have above 3 ecvs
Replace with national popular vote would undermine
Should ec be reformed- yes- federlaism
Disproportionate- wyoming x3 v california
Hyperbolic not only force bringing federlaism
Ireelevant for nationwide leader, why need for fed voting system
Shoulld ec be reformed=n no= clear result and storng mandate
Winner tajes all- 2 party/horse race
Votes clear choice and winner generally has a strong mandate by winning a majority of popular vote
National popular vote- 3rd parties do better- unlikely to win buty may prvenet winner ganining 50% plus votes
Should ec be refomred- clear result and strong mandate- yes
Doesnt allways happen- 2000 and 2017- not popular vote undermines principle of popular soverignty
3rd party represented- lack of choice may contribute to lack of participation
Should ec be reformed- rep of states/cohesiveness of system- no
State based syustem, candidates have to campaign and win across wide vaierty of states
President more likely to govern with interests of whole country in mind
Should ec be refomred- Rep of states/cohesiveness of system- yes
Unrealistic to reach all
96^ events both sides went in 12 states- 2020- eg ohio florida michigan
Gov scott walkker- the nation as a whole is not going to elect the next president’ ‘12 states are
Bellwhether states (those which generally follow outcome oveerall) over rep- as their votes which can cchange
Should ec be refomre-d no past sucess
Critics exaggerate
2000 and 2016 unusual- historically winner pop vote winner ec
Faithless voters rare- 16 since 1900
No consesnus on what to change§
Should ec be refomred- past sucess- yes
Increasing frequently flawed
7 faithless electors 2020
Presidential elections
Every 4y
Fixed date
Max 2 terms
1968 reason for change
Democratci patry coice of humphrey as presidential candiate cuased protests and rioting at nat party convention
In response mcgovern frasher commission to consult possile reofmrs to nomination process
Before 1968 process
Decision made at national party convention
Exciting unpredictable
Ordinary voters had no real say in process- delegaets at npcs often influenced party beurocracy ‘men in grey suits’ in ‘smoke filled rooms
Meant candidates with establisheed party connections had adv over new people- may be ex senators
No long primary campaigns so financaisl reaosns not that important
Experienced knowelgable people choose cnadiate- peer review
Since 1968
Today conventions more of a formality- know whose won
Proces smore open and democratic with foucs on ordinary voters rather than party
Now possible for outsiders with little or no dc expeince come throgh- trump
Fundraising no crucial in long rpimary campaign- obama ‘click to donate’ utilised social media and acebook
Peer review disappear
Invisable primary
Period 1-2y before us priamry season official begins
Hadley 6 tests
Psychological- character, ability deal with gruelling cmapign
Staff- create campign organisation and recruiiting top professionals to help
Strategy policy ideas
Money fundraiser
Media build profil ein press, tv
Constityuency local volunteers- obama strength
Highly significant in recent years invisable primaries
Increased demand money- ‘money primaries’ often top fundraiser nominatied
2008 obana perform well all iover- recruit team of advisers and thousands of volunteers, became serious contender
During 2015-16 trump top contender
Frontloading hit ground running
Bennet- culing and seperation of field in 2020 over 20 candidates
But what less isgnif in recnet years invisable primaries
2007 mccain 4th opinion polls 4th fundraiser yet won
Poor performance etv debate arrogant and unprepare
Lack early campaign practise and momentum dif finvidable primayr- focus super tuesday- bloomsbrugh spent over 600 mill in tv and social media in super tuesday states
Caucus
Intraparty meeting in which voters physically exercise their preferences in order to decde who will represent their party on the ballot in the presidential eelctcion
Used fby 4 states
Pros caucus
Offer voters much more than simple cross on ballot paper- chance serious discussion and epetition for voters who first choice
Well suited to states uie iowa large in size but thinly populated
Attract committed and well informed participatts they deter the so called wreckers of open primaries
Particiaption and communication- the times-‘ democracy at its most earthy’
Cons caucus
No actual vote- undemocratic- gove an adv to candidates with most vocal and persuasive supporters
Several hours of commitemnt, many believe complex andf conufsin
Participation lowe rthan in primary- record 2016 20%
Unrep as attracts those 8wth strobg ideological convictions
Often need radical candidates to win- santorum narrow victory over romney iowa 2012
Primary
Intraparty election held within individ states decide who will compete on ballot for that patry in presidential election
Used 46 states-new hampshire first
Open primary
Any registered voter (registered to party) chose to vote in either party primary, but not both
Closed primary
Only vote for registered patry
Modified primary
Registered and independent
Propoertional primaries
Democrats
Winner takes all primaries
Republicans
Pros primaries
Secret ballot
Turnout higher more convenient and simper
Open and modified primaries allow voters registered to the other party and for indepndent voters to aparticipate- open up participation in theory can result in victories for more moderate candidate that apea to lots of
Cons primaries
Do not offer opp that caucaus do for debate and sicussion
Trunout low- esp later- 2012 gop ny under 2%
Can attract wreckers from suporters other parties vote worst candiate-2012 republicans illinois= obana encouraged democrats to vote santorum not romney
Choosing a running mate choices why
Balance the ticjet geographical ideological racial gender
Party unity may choose opp- harris
Gov experience chaney washington dc experience
National party convention- formal functions pre 1968
Formal casting of votes by delegates for preference presidential candiate- majority of delegate votes need selected
Announcment of running mated
Debate on party policies
National prty conention formal fundraising undermined
Decisions about candidate nominated have already been made due to prianeis and caucuas convention rather than choose
Trad runningg mate announced 3rd day convention recently delcared earlier 2016 trunmp 3 day before
Parties try to avoid heated debates on policies at their npcs because they fear the nedia willl focus on debates as evidence party division
Npcs no longer important
Aug 2016 poll asked how important conventions would be in influencing peoples vote- 12% said would be v important
Undermine formal function
Modern conventions appear predictable staged coreographed, headline speakers as just as likely to be celebrity as serious politician
Hours of tv coverideg dedicated to convention has declined in recent years
Npcs are still important
Can idnetify political stars of the future- 2004 democrat npc obama made key note speech
Ina close race may have some influence on outcome of election- bennett 2004 republican convention more sucessful than democrats further detrninat for bush winning
Informal factors
Heal party rifts developed in primaries- ie loosing candiates may make speeched for winning candiate as sanders did for biden in 2020
Formally call primary season- no rv d
Gain media attention communicate ideas to wider audience- convention lead to bounce in opinon pokls- candiate may increase popularity after excellent speech- hillary 2016
Ec 2016
Trump 306 ecvs clinton 232
Clinton had 3 mill mroe pop votes than trump
Record 7 faithless electiors
5 battleground states marginal trunp won- 48.6% florida- few thousand in key states
Signif tv debates
3 x 90min, each diff syetl
Tv debates rarely pivotal- the times- us presidential debates rarely settle the outcome of the election- provide the iconic monents and thus potentially strengths and weaknesses character
But 20 al gore threw away comfrotable lead in polls with woeful perfomrance
Less signif now- 60% household 1960 comp 20% 2012 watch
But gallop poll found that 2/3 americans claim watched 1st 2020 debate
One term presidents
Carter
George h bush
Carter
Lost 1980 campaign to reagan
Had to cope with diff primary challenger kennedy- reminded voters about internal democrat party divisions
Econ not ealthy
Republican srival=- reagon v effective charasmatic, film star
George h bush
Lost 1992 election clinton
Challenge in primary by pat buchannon
Econ in recession- bush had to backtrack on promise not to raise taxes
Approval rating low
Faced v high charismatic challener clinon
1992- ross perot moderate con vote attracted
Result of 2020 us election
Biden 51% pop vote 306 ecb
Trump 47% 232 ecv
Trump campiagn launched multille legal challengeson basis fraud allegations in states biden won narrowly
Turnout 2020
Higehst in over 100y
66.7% comp 60% 2016
Minor parties in 2020
2% botes
11 canidates inc jo jorgenson kany west brithday party ballot 12 states
Money involved in 2020 us election
Estimated 14bn spent on presidential and congressional 2020 races combined $6.5bn for presidential election
Comeptitive democratic primary contribute higher spending
Biden first ever presidential candiate raise over 1bn
Factors determining biden win
Demographics and turnout
Issues
Campaigns
Biden won demographics and turnout
10 battel states inc florida and arisona focused on
Sucess in states high ecvs- retained blue wall rustbelt in midwest
Won female 56%, black 87% and hispanic 66% vote, under 30 62, college educaton 55
Issues biden won
Pandemic 17% key issues- daamaged econ so trump not recorded
Econ major dactor- 50% siad determinat on exit polls
Camapigns biden victory
Despite pandemic- trump held mass rallies and did not encourage mask wearing,
Bidens choice of harris— lib woman
Biden calsm leadership style
Pete buttigies strategic smite- people were exhausted byyt the drama of trump.. biden gave a clam voice
1st tv denate both bad but esp trump
Sleepy joe less effective than crooked hillary
Senate election 2020
Net gain democrats- 50-50
House election
Demcoorat majority small 222-213
Etv that the system for nominating presidential candidates is in need of reofmr
Intro- loa no
Since 1968 debate how to enhance the uqality and democratic nature of the presidential candiate nomination process
1968 democrat party followed refomrs proposed by the mcgovern frase comm after catestrophic selection of humprey
Changes increase public involvenent- removal of per review longe rprimary campaign initiated
Critics timingm cost low turnout, lack peer review
1968 reforms compromise lagrely- enabled increased participation candiates more likely to be committed skilled popular
Timing fundraising and cost
Particiapton
Reform nominate president- timing yes
Reform set a date in which declaratiosn of individ runing for presidency should be made
Nomination process length has increased
Trump announced running for 2024 in nov 2022- endurance test
Presidential campaign trivialised over long period of time- 2023 presidential campign lack of policies promoted by candidates make smore personality than policy politics
Reform nomiante president- timing no
Personality important factor- stornger or most charismatic better suited to the job
Endurance enables outside candidates prove themselves- obama- no longer career politician real life expeirence
Endurance needed as tough job- hadley argues part of his 6 tests duration of invisbale primary ensures storngest filed
Reform president nomination- fundraisig and cost
Reform- limit the extent to which fundraising could take place- cap on amount
Duration results in empahsis on fundraisnig- apparently well qualified candidates drop out of process early- francis suarez aug 2023 republican, low on money not on gop debate as not considered top 10
Money most important than politices and presidential uqualities
Refomrm nomiante presidet= fundraising and cost no
Even once nominated presidential candidate needs to cont to fundraise in ordeer to run their presidential campiagn
Fudnraising not most imp- bloomburg 600mill tv and digital ads on super tuesday states and not sleced-2016 trump not most fundraised yet won
Reforms not worked- constition free speech protected, ability to donate and fundraise
Participation- reform presidential nomination
Low turnout caucuses especially signif less democratic and refletcion of general public- since 1996 rare above 25% in primary and caucsuses
Those who do vote unrep of whole nation- more ideologically driven, perhaps even radical with danger extremist candiate
Lack preer review, candiates selected may have a lack of experience
Reform- pre primaries mini conventions- political heavwights draw up candiate shrotlist before presented to public
Particiaption- presidential nomination reform no
Very democratic enab,ed increase participation, public not political heavyweight choice
Outsider choice clinton obama
Extreme candidates not case, moderate- biden beet sanders and warren 2020- romney beat snatorum in 2012
Trunout not always low- nh 2018 democrats primary 52% may vary with percieved importance of priamry- esp more at start
Factors afected presidential election results
Quality of campaign
Incumbency
Campaign finance
Issues
Demographics and turnout
Quality of campaign affecting presidential election results
Enthuse turnout, effective gotv
Use media efficiently
Perform well tv debates- gore check watch looked pooor
Clear campiagn message
Swing states targetted effectively- 12 states 2002 96% events both sides
Incumbency- affect presidential election
Priamires rarely face seirous primary challenge- can focus on fundraising and prepar efor election campign itself
Rival engaged in internal primary campaign
20212 obana benefit
Media- presidential election reesult
Can be bought or eearnt
Tv debates important despite rise of social media
Yet trump use twitter key 2016 to 2020 publicicity even if bad
Campaign finance- presidential election results
Essential as pays for ads staff and canpaigning team traval party and focus groups
Issues affect presidential election result
Polls indicate these- 2020 over 35% believe econ most important- clinton its the eocnomy stupid
Do you think usa on right track or wrong track - 2020 41% right track- good sign for incumbent
Demographic and turnout presdiential election results
Core voters and win independents
Eg 2016 trump win white working class smale in midewest rustbelt seats proved sucessful
Incumbency and presidential election
Loa- on surface yes but depends
Lichtman- incumbants are difficult, but not impossible to beat
Experience in office
Name recognition media attention and campaign resources
Lack of primary challenge
Incumbency and presidential - experience in office yes
As president can indtroduce politicies that you will believe will go down with voters and can evern target specfici in battlegroudn states
2012 election obama able to take credit ofr popular foiegn policy- kill osama bin laden 2011
Opp mitt romney nothing to fall. Back on
1996 clinton take credit for improving econ
incumbency and presidential election experience in office no
Being the incumbernt with 4 years of white house expereicne can also be a disadv undeer some circumstanceds- in tv debates can be critic, whilst opp can focus on generalised things
Geogre h bush sturggeld to defend his time in office in 1992- econ not doing well and had to compromise on famous 1988 camopoaign promise ‘read my lips, no new taxes’
Incumbency and presidential election- name recognition and media attention, campaign resoucres- yes
Usually much easier for incumbent presidentto attract puvliciuty and sell their media campaign messag
Have effective campaign and ideologically committed team- obama 2012 in axelrod and plouffe- who had helped him to victory iin 2008
Usually able to raise mroe money than their challengers- obama over romney 2012- except in 1992 clinton challenger spent more than bush and clinton won- smae iwth biden
Incumbency and presidential election- campaign resources and recoggnition=no
Charismatic challengers can also attract meia attention- carter 1980 and bush snr 1992- lost out to charismatic challengers reagan and clinton
Since 1968 campaigns have increased in length, mroe time for potential challnegers to gain name recogniton
Tv debates great for opp- 1980 most agree reagan beat carter in debate
Clinton
Charismatic opp still strong campaign team
Biy biger spending not always win
Incumbency and presidential election= lack of primary challenger y
Dont face primary challenger- challengers faced expense and divisive primary season
2012 obama beat mitt romeny who did have diff primary campaign
Incumbency andpresidential election- lack of priamry challenger no
Sometimes incumbernts do face priamry challengers ats carter 1980 by ted kennedy, 1992 g h bush from buchanan
Although bush won primary easily, divisive nature may have contributed to defeat
Factors affect outcome of congressional eelctions
Ref on president
Local issues
Gerrymandering, incumbent adv 90% stay incumbents
Individ performance
Turnout levels can affect congresonal election result
Coattails effect
Congressional elections as ref on president
2014 poll found that 52% registered voters intended to vote not based on strengths on congressional candiates but on president
Cpmhrssopma; ca,[ohms omcreased mayopma; osises
Pop support president can help - gwb 9!1 rep gain 2 in senate and 8 in house
2022 democrats ave lost control house majority- biden low approval rating
Local issues outcome congress
Tip o neill all politics is local
D in s more con.than n and more religious
Use of pork barrell politics
Individ performance ocngressional election
Individ members of congress are often more popular than party overall- davidgen and oleszec two congresses
Members both houses curtail their reputation with ‘folks back home
Prok barell politics
If in marginal more on character
Turnnout affect outcome congresisonal eledtion
Turnout lower mid term elections
Signif impact beause particular demographic groups tend to have high rate absentiism in mideterm elections esp under 30s
Coattails effect outcome of congrssional election
Ability of popular presidential candiate- ie reagan help republicans in 1980
Incumbents adv most imp factior determining results and mid term elections
Fundrasing
Ref on president
Local issues
Incumbent mid terms- fundraising no
Democrats and allies spent nearly half bn n ads abortion- 108mil r
2022 16bn overall
Fundraising yes incumbent adv mid terms
Incumbent much easier raise money
Democrats raised x7 incumbents
Margerie taylor green incument opp outspent but she still won
Ref on president incumbent adv n mid term
Democrats did bettert han expetced 2022
No red wave- biden had approval rather than trump
Ref on president no incumbent adv mid term
90% seats uncomp=
Gerrymandering
Local issues incumbent adv mid terms
O neil all politics is local
Immigration texas arizona
Eniviron ny
Local issues y incumbent adv mid term
17 seats no opp 2022
Pork barall incumbent did so- alaska brigde to nowhere
Redistricting
Every 10y reallocated seats
Gerrymandering to make a safe seat
Packing 1 party concession
Cracking one party split so never win
Critics gerrymandering
Proetct incumbents and decreases comp- forvote.org- politicians. To choose their voters before the voters choose them
Led to growing polarisiation and partisanship in congress- no need to compromise as get elected anyway
17 seats uncontested 2022
Redistricting possible reforms
2008 proposal 11- californnia- independent body redistrict aas suggested by common cause and fairvote.org
At fed level reform diff persuade comhressman
2009 fairness and indepndence in redistricting act - would have created bipartisan redistricting panal but didnt pass
Sc on gerrymanderin
2019 5v4 sc ruled in favour n carolina redistrcit rucho v common cause- allowed extreme case gerrymandering
2023 moore v harper- state not explain themselves to state sc
2022 midterms
Democrats lost control of house by small margin- no red wall as expected with 20-30 flip
Removed control senate
Maverick moves from some republicans with kevin mcacarthy challenged by freedom caucaus
For governorship changed hands nevada tyo rep, 3 d
Tyrnout relatively low just under 50%
Democrats and allies spent nearly half mill on abortion ads alone
Voting procedure for elections
Early voting- weeks before in 28 states 2020
Most states no excuse absentee voting- dnot needa reason why postal vote- covid
Many states touch screen election yet broke 2016, 2002 states offered money to update
Some states strict rules voter id- texas disenfranchise plack indiv
Reasons for low turnout
Practical barrier
Number and frequncy election
Predictability
Low turnout practical barrier
Lack automatic registation 65% rather 90% uk
Voter id laws
Low turnout- predictable
Gerrymandering- 90% safe incumbents
Turnout high in states like ohio wheree ecv often crucial in determining outcome elction
Late primary and caucaus-
Number and frequency of us elections low turnout
Voter fatigue
Last kentuckey gubernatorial 10%
Why us elections so expensive
Length of campaign- invisable primary
Increasing professionalism and require resources v expensive professional campaigners
High cost tv ads
Loopholes
Ehere money comes from for campaigns
Candidates can spend unlimited amounts of own money- bloomburg 600mill 2020
Donors
1974 fed grant cover cost presidenyial campaign 100mill 2020 if match funds- in return strict spending limit no one taken
Attempts for campaign finance reform
Fed election campaign at 1974 feca
Grants and match spending if accept limit on spending
Prevent wealthy donors, 3300 individ, 5000 pac/candiates
Bipartisan campaign reform act 2002- bcra
Banned soft money- money raised spent on education but really just cmapign
Banned issue ads paid by big ig run up election
Loopholes
Sc jsutice 2003- money , like water, will always find an outlet
2010 citizens united
Citizens united v fec
Cu made film hilary the movie fec claimd attack ad not documentary
Sc ban ads paid for by outside group during election uear- justcie kennedy no sufficent interest in justiying limits on political spending
Superpac
Independent expendaiture only comm
Con restore our future
Lib democrats- priority usa- used support obama and clinton
2020 2000 actual pas, 3.4bn
Etv further campaign finance reofrmi s urgenly needed in usa
Intro- y
Debate lib v con
Since 2010
Reduce cost us election- unconstitution
Reduce influence wealthy donors
Fairer elections
Proposed reforms campaign finacne
Pr to replace wta all congresisonal elections
Nat pop vote to replace ec
Ssystem of univesal automatic voter registration
Scrap voter id
Campaign finance- reduce cost us eletion
Increased cost 14bn 2020 , 6bn 2020
Feca and bcra failed to reduce overall spending
Satte funding largely redundent
Campaign fincnacr reform- no unconsitional
2010 citizens united
1st ammendemnt
Greater transparency devlare
Have greater restrictions soft money bcra
Reduce influence welathy donors campaign finance
Esp priority since 2010
Wealthy donors may expect return on investment
Megaphone v whisper- comon cuase
Priority usage- obaa and clinton
No evidence reduce influence wealthy donors- campaign finance
2016 trump won but not spend most
Blomspnrih 600mill spent
Fairer elections campign finance
Huge discrpencies
Almost impossible 3rd parties to cmopete
Huge funding adv for incumbents
Not fairer elections with campaign finance reform
Tv ads educate
Gotv encourage participation
Comparative finacne spending
2019 ge total spending less 48 mill 2002 us 14bn
Laws diff
Powers attitutied of court
Electoral systems
Similarities
Comparative electoral reform laws are diff-uk
Structural
Uk- 2000 political aprties, elections and ref act clearly ysets out rule campaign finacing spend no more 30,000/candiate, 20 mill total (yet change next ge)
Soendinng strictly regulated by electoral commsion, power to fine parties if over spend
Tv time strictly regulated each ppb
Comparative elctoral finance reform- laws diff- usa
Campaign finance laws much loser, campaign finance viewed as a free speech issue- 1st ammendment thus diiff change- legal loopholes feca and bcra
Limit on donor hard mney 3000 indv 5000pac
No strong limits on orgnaisations ie 2010 citizens united
No legal limits on tv - clinton 2016 pad for and aired over 100,000 ads
Finance reform comparative- powers and attitudes of courts
Uk courts active in upholding campaign finance laws- 2018 vote leave broke by spend over limits
Parliament soveiren - thus raised threshold- not sc
Usa sc strike down laws codified
Finance reform comparative- electoral systems and campaigns are diff
Uk elections party centred, donations party rather than individ candisates
Skall no elections in uk
Campaigns are hsort
Usa- elections candiate as seen on signs rather than vote democrats
Lots elections
Campaigns longer
Comparative finance refrom similiarities
Concern individ too much- jcb 3mill lord sainsbury 2 mill 2023
Usa bloomsbugr
No major suport state funding of party
Examine reasons that us eletions cost much more than uk elections
Constitution- free speech upheld, loopholes, uk more effective laws
Advocacy- tv as us, uk pary political broadcaset- cultural
Length0 strutuaal- mcgovern fraxer 2021 trump for 2024
Uk about 6 weeks
Geographical
American larger
Founding fathers on democracy
James madison- federalist paper number 10 the constitution created a ‘republic’ not a ‘democracy’
Large republic could guard aainst the tyranny of teh majorty by having a signif number of elected reps
The free vote of the people would prevent elections being won though viciouys arts
A large republic would render factious comninations ess to be dreaded- ff warned tiem and gain of perils of parties
How many ran to be democrat nominee
29 in 2020
Incumbent adv financial
2020 senate republican leadr mcconnel needed to spend av $34 per vote to retainh his senate seat eseat comp 92 per vote for democratic challenger
Franking provileges
Cost of mailing to constituents provided by conrgess
May be used for eelectoral purposes
Franing requests far higher election years- 651 jan. 1500 in apr 2020
Pull out of primaries democrats
Sanders- acknowlegde no path victory
Warren poor perfromance super tuesday
Loophole of superpacs
Not donating directly to a campaign or coordinating with a campiagn
Throeirst on incumbents
Lichtman - incumbents are difficult but not impossible to beat
Frontloading
Movement of primaries to an ealier point in calendar in order to gie more signif to pirmary or caucus win state
Less unity within party rep natparty convention
2016 trump approved 69.8% first ballot, whilst romney 90%
Requiremnet to be involved in presidnetial debates
More than 15% vote
Makes diff for 3rd partids
Significance presidential dbeates
Hilary seemed to have won each, yet lost in end
