Democracy And Participation- Elections Flashcards
Electoral college
Decide who will recieve their particular states ecv
Compromise as couldnt agree on direct election or with congress
Group of electors nominated each state
Fptp system
Electors are not forced to vote for the candidate who won popular vote in state- faithless voter
Possible reforms to ec
Direct election
Automatic plan
Proportional system
Maine system
Possible reform- direct election
Abolish ec and replace one person one vote
All votes across country are counted and popualr vote wins
Need constitutional ammendment- unlikely
Automatic plan
Used in over half states
Keeps ec but abolishes electors, ecb awared to winning candidate in state automaticall
But ff wanted free agents
Proportional system
Ecvs in direct proportion to % of votes won in each state
Fairer on 3rd parties.independants- in 192- ross perot would have won 100 ecvs rather than none
But unlikely as disadv two main parties whos support is require df ro any signif reform to be actioned
Maine system
Maine and nabraska
Ecvs allocated on district by district basis plus two for oveerall winner
But research suggestst can lead to even more disproportionate result than current system
Should the ec be reformed
Federalism
Clear result and strong mandate
Represetation of states/cohesiveness of system
Past success
Loa-yes
Should ec be reformed- no federalism
Protects and reinforces principle of federalism
Gives small states as a voice as always have above 3 ecvs
Replace with national popular vote would undermine
Should ec be reformed- yes- federlaism
Disproportionate- wyoming x3 v california
Hyperbolic not only force bringing federlaism
Ireelevant for nationwide leader, why need for fed voting system
Shoulld ec be reformed=n no= clear result and storng mandate
Winner tajes all- 2 party/horse race
Votes clear choice and winner generally has a strong mandate by winning a majority of popular vote
National popular vote- 3rd parties do better- unlikely to win buty may prvenet winner ganining 50% plus votes
Should ec be refomred- clear result and strong mandate- yes
Doesnt allways happen- 2000 and 2017- not popular vote undermines principle of popular soverignty
3rd party represented- lack of choice may contribute to lack of participation
Should ec be reformed- rep of states/cohesiveness of system- no
State based syustem, candidates have to campaign and win across wide vaierty of states
President more likely to govern with interests of whole country in mind
Should ec be refomred- Rep of states/cohesiveness of system- yes
Unrealistic to reach all
96^ events both sides went in 12 states- 2020- eg ohio florida michigan
Gov scott walkker- the nation as a whole is not going to elect the next president’ ‘12 states are
Bellwhether states (those which generally follow outcome oveerall) over rep- as their votes which can cchange
Should ec be refomre-d no past sucess
Critics exaggerate
2000 and 2016 unusual- historically winner pop vote winner ec
Faithless voters rare- 16 since 1900
No consesnus on what to change§
Should ec be refomred- past sucess- yes
Increasing frequently flawed
7 faithless electors 2020
Presidential elections
Every 4y
Fixed date
Max 2 terms
1968 reason for change
Democratci patry coice of humphrey as presidential candiate cuased protests and rioting at nat party convention
In response mcgovern frasher commission to consult possile reofmrs to nomination process
Before 1968 process
Decision made at national party convention
Exciting unpredictable
Ordinary voters had no real say in process- delegaets at npcs often influenced party beurocracy ‘men in grey suits’ in ‘smoke filled rooms
Meant candidates with establisheed party connections had adv over new people- may be ex senators
No long primary campaigns so financaisl reaosns not that important
Experienced knowelgable people choose cnadiate- peer review
Since 1968
Today conventions more of a formality- know whose won
Proces smore open and democratic with foucs on ordinary voters rather than party
Now possible for outsiders with little or no dc expeince come throgh- trump
Fundraising no crucial in long rpimary campaign- obama ‘click to donate’ utilised social media and acebook
Peer review disappear
Invisable primary
Period 1-2y before us priamry season official begins
Hadley 6 tests
Psychological- character, ability deal with gruelling cmapign
Staff- create campign organisation and recruiiting top professionals to help
Strategy policy ideas
Money fundraiser
Media build profil ein press, tv
Constityuency local volunteers- obama strength
Highly significant in recent years invisable primaries
Increased demand money- ‘money primaries’ often top fundraiser nominatied
2008 obana perform well all iover- recruit team of advisers and thousands of volunteers, became serious contender
During 2015-16 trump top contender
Frontloading hit ground running
Bennet- culing and seperation of field in 2020 over 20 candidates
But what less isgnif in recnet years invisable primaries
2007 mccain 4th opinion polls 4th fundraiser yet won
Poor performance etv debate arrogant and unprepare
Lack early campaign practise and momentum dif finvidable primayr- focus super tuesday- bloomsbrugh spent over 600 mill in tv and social media in super tuesday states
Caucus
Intraparty meeting in which voters physically exercise their preferences in order to decde who will represent their party on the ballot in the presidential eelctcion
Used fby 4 states
Pros caucus
Offer voters much more than simple cross on ballot paper- chance serious discussion and epetition for voters who first choice
Well suited to states uie iowa large in size but thinly populated
Attract committed and well informed participatts they deter the so called wreckers of open primaries
Particiaption and communication- the times-‘ democracy at its most earthy’
Cons caucus
No actual vote- undemocratic- gove an adv to candidates with most vocal and persuasive supporters
Several hours of commitemnt, many believe complex andf conufsin
Participation lowe rthan in primary- record 2016 20%
Unrep as attracts those 8wth strobg ideological convictions
Often need radical candidates to win- santorum narrow victory over romney iowa 2012
Primary
Intraparty election held within individ states decide who will compete on ballot for that patry in presidential election
Used 46 states-new hampshire first
Open primary
Any registered voter (registered to party) chose to vote in either party primary, but not both
Closed primary
Only vote for registered patry
Modified primary
Registered and independent
Propoertional primaries
Democrats
Winner takes all primaries
Republicans
Pros primaries
Secret ballot
Turnout higher more convenient and simper
Open and modified primaries allow voters registered to the other party and for indepndent voters to aparticipate- open up participation in theory can result in victories for more moderate candidate that apea to lots of
Cons primaries
Do not offer opp that caucaus do for debate and sicussion
Trunout low- esp later- 2012 gop ny under 2%
Can attract wreckers from suporters other parties vote worst candiate-2012 republicans illinois= obana encouraged democrats to vote santorum not romney
Choosing a running mate choices why
Balance the ticjet geographical ideological racial gender
Party unity may choose opp- harris
Gov experience chaney washington dc experience
National party convention- formal functions pre 1968
Formal casting of votes by delegates for preference presidential candiate- majority of delegate votes need selected
Announcment of running mated
Debate on party policies
National prty conention formal fundraising undermined
Decisions about candidate nominated have already been made due to prianeis and caucuas convention rather than choose
Trad runningg mate announced 3rd day convention recently delcared earlier 2016 trunmp 3 day before
Parties try to avoid heated debates on policies at their npcs because they fear the nedia willl focus on debates as evidence party division
Npcs no longer important
Aug 2016 poll asked how important conventions would be in influencing peoples vote- 12% said would be v important
Undermine formal function
Modern conventions appear predictable staged coreographed, headline speakers as just as likely to be celebrity as serious politician
Hours of tv coverideg dedicated to convention has declined in recent years
Npcs are still important
Can idnetify political stars of the future- 2004 democrat npc obama made key note speech
Ina close race may have some influence on outcome of election- bennett 2004 republican convention more sucessful than democrats further detrninat for bush winning
Informal factors
Heal party rifts developed in primaries- ie loosing candiates may make speeched for winning candiate as sanders did for biden in 2020
Formally call primary season- no rv d
Gain media attention communicate ideas to wider audience- convention lead to bounce in opinon pokls- candiate may increase popularity after excellent speech- hillary 2016
Ec 2016
Trump 306 ecvs clinton 232
Clinton had 3 mill mroe pop votes than trump
Record 7 faithless electiors
5 battleground states marginal trunp won- 48.6% florida- few thousand in key states
Signif tv debates
3 x 90min, each diff syetl
Tv debates rarely pivotal- the times- us presidential debates rarely settle the outcome of the election- provide the iconic monents and thus potentially strengths and weaknesses character
But 20 al gore threw away comfrotable lead in polls with woeful perfomrance
Less signif now- 60% household 1960 comp 20% 2012 watch
But gallop poll found that 2/3 americans claim watched 1st 2020 debate
One term presidents
Carter
George h bush
Carter
Lost 1980 campaign to reagan
Had to cope with diff primary challenger kennedy- reminded voters about internal democrat party divisions
Econ not ealthy
Republican srival=- reagon v effective charasmatic, film star
George h bush
Lost 1992 election clinton
Challenge in primary by pat buchannon
Econ in recession- bush had to backtrack on promise not to raise taxes
Approval rating low
Faced v high charismatic challener clinon
1992- ross perot moderate con vote attracted
Result of 2020 us election
Biden 51% pop vote 306 ecb
Trump 47% 232 ecv
Trump campiagn launched multille legal challengeson basis fraud allegations in states biden won narrowly
Turnout 2020
Higehst in over 100y
66.7% comp 60% 2016
Minor parties in 2020
2% botes
11 canidates inc jo jorgenson kany west brithday party ballot 12 states
Money involved in 2020 us election
Estimated 14bn spent on presidential and congressional 2020 races combined $6.5bn for presidential election
Comeptitive democratic primary contribute higher spending
Biden first ever presidential candiate raise over 1bn
Factors determining biden win
Demographics and turnout
Issues
Campaigns
Biden won demographics and turnout
10 battel states inc florida and arisona focused on
Sucess in states high ecvs- retained blue wall rustbelt in midwest
Won female 56%, black 87% and hispanic 66% vote, under 30 62, college educaton 55
Issues biden won
Pandemic 17% key issues- daamaged econ so trump not recorded
Econ major dactor- 50% siad determinat on exit polls
Camapigns biden victory
Despite pandemic- trump held mass rallies and did not encourage mask wearing,
Bidens choice of harris— lib woman
Biden calsm leadership style
Pete buttigies strategic smite- people were exhausted byyt the drama of trump.. biden gave a clam voice
1st tv denate both bad but esp trump
Sleepy joe less effective than crooked hillary