Thinking and reasoning Flashcards
What does thinking include?
- deductive reasoning
- inductive reasoning
- problem-solving
what is deductive reasoning
from premises, generate a valid conclusion
what is inductive reasonign
predicting the future from past data
What is the dual process theory
We use two kinds of process
- sequential, conscious, rational
- automatic, unconscious, fast
What is ‘system 1’
Intuitive, automatic, largely unconscious, fast-and-frugal, quick-and dirty, approximate — but domain-specific— procedures, schemas, rules of thumb or heuristics, that
» are adaptive and mostly effective when applied in the appropriate domain, but
» are only approximate – with some built in biases
» may lead to error if applied to an inappropriate domain
What is system 2
A slow, clunky, sequential, effortful —but rational, logical, general-purpose – conscious reasoning system
» constrained by limited working-memory capacity and other basic limitations of our cognitive machinery
What is the availability heuristic?
judge as more probable/ frequent events/objects of which more examples are readily “available”
why does Tversly and Kahneman say the availabiltiy heuristic works>
because it is generally easier to retrieve from memory examples of events/objects that are more frequent
retrievability is also determined by…
- recency
- salience
- similarity to the current case
What is availability bias?
to over-estimate probability of events of which we know examples that easily retrievable — e.g because recent, personally salient, or similar to present instance
example of availability bias?
» overestimate the risks of dying of rarer (but dramatic, reported) causes, such as botulism, floods, tornados, and measles, but underestimate the risks of dying of common causes, such as strokes, cancers, diabetes. (Slovic et al, 1980)
What is representative bias?
• If something/someone has features representative of being an X, we tend to think that they have the standard properties of an X
prototype effect
• I have a weighted coin that lands head-up 4 times out of 5 and you know this. I ask you to predict a series of tosses: you will get a £1 for each correct prediction. What ought you to predict?
what do participants do
Not: H on 80% of trials and T on 20%! Should do H every time to maximise chances
what did Duncker find when asked subjects to find a way of supporting a lighted candle on a vertical wooden wall, given these props: candle and pins
• They were less successful than subjects given the same problem but with the drawing pins tipped out of the box.
What is Watson’s 2 4 6 experiment?
This sequence – 2, 4, 6 – is generated by a rule. You have to try to guess the rule, by trying out other sequences.”
» Participant then has to generate further sequences of three numbers, receiving feedback: “yes: fits the rule”or “no: doesn’t fit”
» and declare his/her hypotheses about what the rule is.
