Task 5 Flashcards
What is the difference between judgment and decision making ?
- you use judgment to make a decision
- it is basically the process (heuristic)
What is the natural frequency hypothesis ?
- based on evo. we find it easier to work with frequencies then with percentages regarding decision making
Name the 4 phases of how decisions are made:
- Setting goal
- Gathering information
- Decision structuring (organize options)
- making a final choice
- evaluation
What are cognitives illusions ?
- Basicall in everyday life ur cognitions are not allways correct but they are still usefull
- it is the consequence of heuristics
What is the base rate fallacy ?
- to over estimate the rare feature or underestimate the common feature
What is the availability heuristic ? (also name on failure)
- is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific decision
- basically the first thought
- work with the fluency mechanism
- failure to include base rate
What is the fluency mechanism ?
- recalling instead of retrieving memory
Why is the availability heuristic not so good ?
- Because it leaves out the base rate information
What is the representativeness Heuristic ?
- deciding on something because it is more represented in current time
What are the problems with the representativeness Heuristic ?
- more representative is not equal more likly
- conjunction fallacy
- also leaves out base rate info
- gambers fallacy
What does conjunction fallacy mean ?
- the mistaken belief that the probability of a conjunction of two events (A and B) is greater than the probability of one of them (just A)
What is a common problem with all heuristics ?
- the mistaken belief in the law of small sample numbers
What is the framing effect ?
- the influence of irrelevant aspects of a situation (e.g., wording or cotext )on decision making.
- it depence on individual differences
- also depent on loss aversion (loses are more seriously then gains)
What does anchoring mean regarding decision making ?
- rely to much on a key argument and only create sub arguments supporting the main argument while leaving out other important informations
What is the sunk cost effect ?
- Greater tendency to continue something once one has invested in it (via money)
- not common on childreen and animals
What is the hindsight bias ?
- thinking that events were more predictable after the event took place
What is conformation bias ?
- So only gather information about supporting your first theory
- Instead of finding contradiction argumentation
What is the overconfidence on decision making ?
- thinking that u can deal with everything and that u know everything (arrogant way)
What is the omission bias ?
- Tendency to prefer inaction to action when engaged in risky decision making
- the opposite of action based bias
- regret is greater when unwanted outcome is caused by action
What is the support theory ? (Name two characteristics)
- a more explicit description of an event is regarded as having greater subjective probability
- Example: How likely do u die next summer vacation -> less likely the n when u would add information
1. more attention to given aspects
2. limitation of memory -> memory only gets activated when explicitly stated
What are some everyday life problems regarding decision making ?
- misunderstanding of problems
- priming via media
- most explanation research were proofed in artificial stteings
- everyone solve problems individually
- process of heuristic is not really known
How do we choose the correct heuristics ?
- take the best ignore the rest
- mostly fav is the recognition heuristics