superpowers paper 2 Flashcards
7.6a Superpower resource demands (food, fossil fuels, and minerals) can cause environmental degradation and their carbon emissions contribute disproportionately to global
warming
Global environmental governance is mostly influenced by superpowers. cause global warming
Global carbon dioxide emissions in 2015:
29% China , 14% USA, 10% EU, 7% India, 5% Russia, 35% Rest of the world.
The USA and China have been reluctant to set emissions reduction targets, whereas the EU has often led in this regard.
EU and US emissions are falling (because of greater efficiency and green policies) but in China emissions are still rising.
energy demand will increase by 40% in 2040 compared to 2010.
High resource consumption (the last stage in Rostow’s Modernisation Model) has caused many environmental problems:
- Urban air quality in emerging power cities is very dangerous due to poor vehicle engines.
- Imports and exports have increased so CO2 has increased through increased transport. This means goods have a larger carbon footprint.
- Deforestation has accelerated as people cut down trees in order to grow crops for food or biofuel.
Continued economic development in emerging powers is also likely to lead to local environmental degradation. This will translate into health problems, especially in densely populated cities.
attitudes to issues such as trade, globalisation and attitudes to the environment differ between countries. The EU has shown itself willing to reduce the global warming threat, but this is less true of the USA and even less so of the emerging powers (China, Russia), which tend to prioritise economic development over environmental protection.
7.6c Future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers has implications for the availability and cost of key resources (rare earths, oil, staple grains and water), as well as for the physical environment.
Over the next 30-40 years resource demand in the USA/EU is likely to remain static. Most people are already wealthy and their demand for more resources will be met by efficient use of existing resources.
In emerging powers, this is not the case. Pressure on resources has a number of causes: increasing population (India, Indonesia & Brazil) increasing wealth: the global middle class (people earning $10-100 per day) is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to 5 billion by 2030.
These people will want more which increases demand for:
Rare earths - 80-90% of global rare earth production is in China - rare earth metals (e.g. Scandium used in electronic, medical and laser devices.
Food - as China and India develop = increased demand for wheat, rice. Demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘Western’ diets.
Oil - in 2015 the USA used 19 million barrels of oil per day, China 12 million and India 4 million. Indian and Chinese demand could reach American levels.
Water - In USA and EU washing machines, dishwashers, a daily shower and swimming pools are common. vast additional water supplies will be needed if emerging countries do it.
Increased demand consequences:
The price of key resources rises as higher demand puts pressure on supply
The availability of resources (non-renewable ones) falls as some supplies are used up.
the rise of middle-class consumption will affect the physical environment:
more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials
increased carbon emissions from higher energy consumption and more factories
problems disposing of consumer waste in landfill sites
more use of water so more polluted waste water
7.7a Tensions can arise over the acquisition of physical resources (Arctic oil and gas) where ownership is disputed and disagreement exists over exploitation.
Superpowers and emerging powers need physical resources, especially fossil fuels, minerals and ores. In many cases they must be obtained through international trade. This can mean:
- buying resources at high prices, e.g. in 2008 crude oil was priced at $140 per barrel
- trading with unfriendly regimes, or ones that are politically unstable (e.g. Iranian and Iraqi oil)
- during conflict, trade routes, and so supply is blocked
These factors increase advantage of claiming new territory and its resources. tensions can arise as countries attempt to acquire natural resources, but their ownership is disputed. This can be done in several ways:
invasion and conquest of another country’s territory, which is rare
claiming offshore, undersea resources by extending a country’s EEZ, which is more common
the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extends 200 nautical miles offshore from a country’s coast, and includes all resources in and under the sea. In some circumstances its size can be extended.
Russian annexation of Crimea 2014
Russian invaded and took Crimea by force to gain total control of the Russian naval base in Crimea - home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
Russia feared that if Ukraine joined the EU and NATO this strategic base could be lost
Fearing the loss of land and a port, both physical resources, Russia acted.
Arctic oil and gas resources under Arctic Ocean
This area is beyond the EEZ of Canada, the USA, Russia and Denmark
All of these countries have claimed EEZ extensions, which are disputed by others.
Since 2007, military patrols and activity have increased in the Arctic as each country shows how interested it is in the area
Any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic could become a source of diplomatic/ actual conflict. the risks of environmental disaster from oil spills is high in one of the few remaining pristine ecosystems on the planet also with a large indigenous population (Inuit)
no natural resources are exploited in Antarctica, and few in the Arctic, but in the future this can change if some countries believe they should be exploited. The attitudes of countries may change if resources are depleted elsewhere, leaving only these protected places as sources of minerals and fossil fuels.
norway have expanded their army, denmark creating an artic military command and response force
tensions are increasing because climate changd is thawing more of the artic
7.7c Political spheres of influence can be contested, leading to tensions over territory and physical resources (South and East China Seas) and in some cases resulting in open conflict (Western Russia/Eastern Europe) with implications for people and physical environments.
A sphere of influence is an area or territory beyond a country’s national borders, over which it feels it should have power but without having any formal authority there. useful concept in terms of tensions between superpowers and emerging powers over territory and physical resources.
Eastern Europe
Eastern European countries joining the EU angered Russia = Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as a build up of NATO armed forces in the Baltic States,
Middle East and Central Asia
Since 2011, Russia has been an active ally of Syria, helping Syrian government fight rebel forces and ISIS. Russia supports Iran, an enemy of US allies Israel and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s increasing involvement in the Middle East makes an already difficult region even more complex.
East China Sea
Strained relations between North Korea (a Chinese ally) and South Korea (a US ally) as North Korea has become a nuclear power. China sees South Korea and Japan (US allies) as economic competitors. All countries have ongoing disputes over islands in the sea.
South China Sea
Numerous disputed islands, claimed by China and US allies the Philippines and Taiwan. China has aggressively pursued a policy of island settlement and artificial island building - then adding military facilities.
The South China Sea is a very tense region. China’s ‘Nine-Dash Line’ and ‘First and Second Island Chain’ policies force it to try and control a large area of ocean south and east of China. The USA has considered this a sphere of influence since the Second World War.
Central America
China has shown increasing interest in funding alternative routes to the Panama Canal between the Atlantic and Pacific. This is an area of traditional US hegemony.
The situations in Ukraine, Georgia and Syria have created refugee crises - in Syria on a huge scale from 2011 to 2017. This shows there are implications for people of contested spheres.
7.8c Cultural, political, economic and environmental tensions in the Middle East represent an ongoing challenge to the superpowers and emerging powers due to complex geopolitical relations combined with a supply of vital energy resources.
The world economy runs on crude oil. The Middle East contains 60% of oil reserves so no superpower or emerging power can ignore it.
The Middle East is an area of tension and conflict because:
Most Muslim countries are hostile to Israel: Iran has vowed to destroy it, but the USA is a key ally of Israel
Religious differences between Sunni (Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey) and Shia (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon) = conflict between and within countries.
Since 2011, the rise of the extremist group IS in Iraq and Syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis.
The Kurdish people (in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey) are demanding their own state.
Since 2015 a civil war has raged in Yemen, which has involved Saudi Arabia directly and the USA indirectly
all of this challenges stabiity. Russia and China, support Iran within the region. The USA & EU lean to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis and Iranians both see themselves as regional leaders, but relations between them are poor.
Globally, there are three contrasting cultural ideologies. Western capitalism (EU, North America, South America), the Muslim world (Middle East, North Africa) and Asian. Attitudes to religion, trade, social relations, women, sexuality and the environment differ in all three. This means that geopolitical relationships between them are not always easy.
