carbon paper 3 Flashcards
6.8c threats to ocean health pose threats to human wellbeing, especially in developing regions that depend on marine resources as a food source and for tourism and coastal protection.
The decline in ocean health caused by acidification and bleaching is resulting in changes to marine food webs. In particular, fish and crustacean stocks are both declining and changing their distributions. Such changes are being particularly felt by developing countries.
the FAO estimates that fishing supports 500 million people, 90% of whom live in developing countries
Millions of fishing families depend on seafood for income as well as food.
Seafood is also the dietary preference of some wealthier countries, notably Iceland and Japan.
Aquaculture is on the rise, but its productivity is also being affected by declining pH values and rising temperatures.
Tourism is another activity under threat, particularly in those countries, for example in the Caribbean, where coral reefs, now showing signs of degradation, have traditionally attracted scuba-diving tourists. The rising sea level is yet another consequence of climate change that threatens the very survival of tourism and its coastal infrastructure, as for example the Maldives and Seychelles. The costs of strengthening coastal defences can often exceed the financial resources of poorer coastal countries.
6.9a future emissions, atmospheric concentration levels and climate warming are uncertain owing to natural factors (the role of carbon sinks), human factors (economic growth, population, energy sources) and feedback mechanisms (carbon release from peatlands and permafrost, and tipping points, including forest die back and alterations to the thermahaline circulation.)
There is much uncertainty over the future, which raises many questions, particularly:
the level of GHG emissions - will they continue to rise?
GHG concentration levels in the atmosphere - is there a limited capacity?
the resilience of other carbon sinks and stores- what are their capacities and could they store more?
the degree of climate warming - how much warmer?
feedback mechanisms such as the release of carbon from peatlands and thawing permafrost - what volumes of carbon are likely to be released?
the rate of population growth - when, if ever, will it level off?
the nature and rate of economic growth - will it always be so carbon-based?
the harnessing of alternative energy sources - will fossil fuels be completely replaced?
the possible passing of tipping points relating to aspects as forest dieback and irreversible alterations to the thermohaline circulation - will disaster be sure to follow?
Any forecasting of global futures should be undertaken with greatest caution, since there is still so much unknown. How should we react to further global warming? There are two different courses of action:
Adaptation: changing our ways of living in such a manner that we are able to cope with most, if not all, the outcomes of global warming
living with the problem, not solving it
Mitigation: reducing or preventing GHG emissions by devising new technologies and adopting low-carbon energies (renewables and recyclables)
tackling the root cause of the problem
6.9b adaptation strategies for a changed climate (water conservation and management, resilient agricultural systems, land-use planning, flood-risk management, solar radiation management) having different costs and risks
Water Conservation and Management
Benefits = fewer resources used, less groundwater abstraction
Attitudinal change operates on a long-term basis: use more grey (recycled) water
Costs and Risks = efficiency and conservation cannot match increased demands for water, Changing cultural habits of a large water footprint needs promotion and enforcement by governments, e.g. smart meters
Resilient Agricultural Systems
Benefits = Higher-tech, drought-tolerant species help resistance to climate change and increase in diseases
Low-tech measures and better practices generate healthier soils and may help carbon dioxide sequestration and water storage: selective irrigation, mulching, cover crops, crop rotation, reduced ploughing, agroforestry.
More ‘indoor’ intensive farming
Costs and risks = More expensive technology, seeds and breeds unavailable to poor subsistence farmers without aid
High energy costs from indoor and intensive farming
Genetic modification is still debated, but frequently used to crease resistant strains, e.g. rice and soya
Growing food insecurity in many places adds pressure to find ‘quick fixes’
Land-use Planning
Benefits = soft management: land-use zoning, building restrictions in vulnerable flood plains and low-lying coasts
Enforcing strict runoff controls and soakaways
Costs = Public antipathy
Abandoning high-risk areas and land-use resettling is often unfeasible, as in megacities such as Dhaka, Bangladesh or Tokyo-Yokohama
Needs strong governance, enforcement and compensation
Flood-Risk Management
Benefits = hard-management traditionally used: localised flood defences, river dredging
Simple changes can reduce flood risk, e.g. permeable tarmac
Reduced deforestation and more afforestation upstream to absorb water and reduce downstream flood risk
Costs and Risks = debate over funding sources, especially in times of economic austerity
Land owners may demand compensation for afforestation or ‘sacrificial land’ kept for flooding
Constant maintenance is needed in hard management, e.g. dredging; lapses of management can increase risk
Ingrained culture of ‘techno-centric fixes’: a disbelief that technology cannot overcome natural processes
Solar Radiation Management
Benefits = geoengineering involves ideas and plans to deliberately intervene in the climate system to counteract global warming
The proposal is to use orbiting satellites to reflect some inward radiation back into space, rather like a giant sunshade
It could cool the Earth within months and be relatively cheap compared with mitigation
Costs and Risks = Untried and untested
Would reduce but not eliminate the worst effects of GHGs: for example, it would not alter acidification
Involves tinkering with a very complex system, which might have unintended consequences or externalities
Would need to continue geoengineering for decades or centuries as there would be a rapid adjustment in the climate system if SRM stopped suddenly
mix of soft- and hard-engineering actions. Some of those actions are low in technology and upfront costs and so, in theory, are possible options for developing countries. A change in traditional practices and customs is often required here. However, there are also actions requiring high inputs of capital and technology that only developed countries can contemplate. The whole of the solar radiation management strategy falls into this category.
6.9c re-balancing the carbon cycle could be achieved through mitigation (carbon taxation, renewable switching, energy efficiency, afforestation, carbon capture and storage) but this requires global agreement and national actions, both of which have proved to be problematic
The long-term solution to the global warming crisis lies in rebalancing the carbon cycle, particularly reducing the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. None of the mitigation strategies is straightfoward, except possibly afforestation. Successful implementation requires a society to change the way it thinks and acts. Some mitigation has a high technological tariff.
Carbon taxation
minimum price companies have to pay to emit carbon dioxide.
Lower road taxes for low-carbon-emitting cars were scrapped in 2015. In 2015, oil and gas exploration tax relief was expanded to support fossil fuels, hence the fracking debate
Renewable Switching
from fossil fuels to renewables and nuclear power. Renewables provide intermittent electricity, while fossil fuels provide the continuous power essential for our current infrastructure.
The Climate Change Levy in 2001 made to encourage renewable energy investment and use but was cut in 2015
Energy Efficiency
The Green Deal scheme encouraged energy-saving improvements to homes, (efficient boilers & lighting, improved insulation.) It was scrapped in 2015.
Afforestation
Tree planting in the UK is increasing, helps carbon sequestration. It involves the Forestry Commission, charities such as the National Trust and the Woodland Trust, landowners and local authorities.
The Big Tree Plant campaign encourages communities to plant 1 million new trees, mostly in urban areas.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Few actual geologic CCS projects exist globally, despite its potential. in 2015, the UK government cancelled its investment in full-scale projects at gas- and coal-powered plants in Scotland and Yorkshire.
Kyoto Protocol in 1997, an agreement which aimed to cut GHG emissions by 5% by 2012. Since then, the reduction targets have been revised upwards and emissions have been reduced. It remains to be seen whether enough is being done or whether the global mitigation strategy should be made even more aggressive. It has to be said that not every country has been enthusiastic about signing up to the succession of agreements tabled since 1997.
The most recent of these, the Paris Agreement of 2016, aims to keep the rise in global temperature to less than 2°C above its pre-industrial level. The Agreement now has 140 national signatures. Among the more reluctant signatories are the three largest producers of GHGs: China, India and the USA (withdrew in 2017)
The attitude of a large proportion of the world’s population to the threat of global warming is one of indifference. TNCs may express concern, but are often found wanting when it comes to taking appropriate action. When it comes to government attitudes, those whose contributions to GHG emissions are relatively small are vociferous in drawing attention to those countries that are large contributors.
