Starlizard Prep Flashcards
What does ICT stand for?
Influence, creativity, threat
Best signing so far? (get stats?)
Maddison
Other mentions:
Diaby
Szoboslai
Van der ven
Vicario
Worse Signing so far?
Caicdeo
Other mentions
Havertz
Tonali
Mount
Best XI?
Martinez
Estupinian
Botman
Saliba
James
Onana
Paqueta
Fernandes
Son
Salah
Haaland
If Kane was still in premier league would try get Rodri in the team
Wanted palhinia at CDM but difficult to leave out Bruno
What effects outcome in football matches?
Everything to the tiniest of details, the more levels of data you can put into a model the better
Speak about learn to code with soccer as well
Ranking MLS players?
Used EAFC24 rating is quite universal - 36 ratings 1-99, difficult to rank intelligence eg. Muller
Mixed with fotmob rating and POTM awards
The relevance of position
To make this even better signed into MLS fantasy football gives further stats
Describe the Betfair Exchange?
Betfair is a mediator, bets are placed by individuals
Therefore the odds are determined by the market, if lots of back an outcome, the odds will decrease, if lots of people lay an outcome the odds will increase
How to work out pay out of lay bet if back and lay commission are 0 when matching a bet?
stake multiplied by (back odds / lay odds)
When to back or lay on the exchange market?
We place a LAY bet when we think that the odds are too low and the possibility of the result is higher. We place a BACK bet when we think that the odds are too high, and then they will fall when other players and bookmakers realize that the odds should be lowered.
Example Man City to win is evens, but we actually think its a 60% chance they win (1.67), we therefore want to back the bet
This can be later hedged by laying if odds changed
Newcastle to not to win is available as a lay bet of evens, but we actually think its a 40% chance (2.5) that they win, we therefore want to lay the bet
This can be later hedged by backing the bet
Lay betting explained?
Placing £10 on a 5/1 shot will win you a profit of £50. Straightforward.In effect, the formula is reversed when it comes to laying.To make a profit of £10, the layer would have to be willing to risk £50
So you basically are saying to someone else, I’ll take your bet on, ill act as the bookmaker and choosing what there stake is
Expected value?
(Probabilty of winning x stake won) - (Probabilty of losing x stake lost)
Probability fundamentals?
Event of a probability not occurring is 1 - probability of it occurring
If events aren’t mutually exclusive you add
If events are mutually exclusive (cannot happen simultaneously) you multiply
Probability Venn diagrams?
A = all of A highlighted including the intersect
B = all of B highlighted including intersect
A’ = Everything highlighted except A and the middle
B’ = Everything highlighted except B and the intersect
A U B = A and B and the middle highlighted
A n B = only the middle highlighted
How to find the number of outcomes in a probability question?
Do the number of options to the amount of times picked
If probabilities vary then do a sample space diagram
Learn to code with soccer Nathan Daunes?
Teaches Python, SQL (language used on large databases), and machine learning (makes own decisions)
How does Asian Handicap work?
So lets say its evens for Man City - 2 goals
If they win by 3 bet wins, if they win by 2 bet is pushed, by 1, draw or lose, stake is lost. Winnings are multiplied by evens
Lets say its 10/1 Cambridge united +0.75, that means half our stake is on 0.5 and half is on 1. If they win or draw we at 10/1, if they lose by 1 goal, we lose half the stake, and push the other half, anything else we lose the bet
Lets say Liverpool is -0.25 at 5/1, so half our stake is on 0, half is on 0.5. If they win we win the bet, if they draw we push half and lose half
if is 1.75, half the stake is on 1.5, half is on 2
If is 0.5, can never push will always be win or lose
What is spread betting
Eg. how many goals in a football match
You buy if you think outcome will be higher
Sell if you think it will be lower
2.8-3
If you placed £10 buy at 3 and 7 goals were scored you would make £40.
However if was 0-0 you would lose £30
Job specs for starlizard?
Strong mathematically
Strong interest in football, will be watching games regularly
Good under pressure
How to convert bettings odds to probabilities?
do the (denominator / the numerator + the denominator) x 100
Eg. 4/1 = 1/5 = 0.2, x100 = 20% chance
1/4 = 4/5 = 0.8 = 80% chance
Job roles?
Handling processes prior to matches
Develop league and player knowledge
Watching live matches and analysing them
Open to new methods and suggestions
Will have to work evenings and weekends
Motivations for working experience?
It combines 3 aspects that are important to me
Sport especially football, time at Exeter City
Matched betting, been a side job for many years
Data analytics from my MSc
Experience for working character?
Communication from punting, comfortable speaking to anyone about anything
Playing sports as well deepened understanding of team work and how to act as a leader
Performance?
I know I don’t have any previous direct experience
But completing my degree shows I’m able to turn up and consistently perform to a high level and I really support/align with the goal of starlizard
How to work out implied probability using decimals?
(1 / Decimal odds) x 100
Can rearrange to find decimal odds if know probability
EPL table?
Man city - Haaland
Liverpool - Salah
Arsenal - Saka
Spurs - Son
Villa - Watkins
Man utd - Bruno
Newcastke - Wilson
Brighton - Fegusen
West Ham - Bowen
Chelsea - Jackson
Brentford - Mbuemo
Wolves - Hwang
Palace - eduard
Everton - Doucore
Forest - Awonyi
Fulham - Bobby reid
Bournmouth - Solanke
Luton - Morris
Sheffield - Archer
Burnley - Foster
Pick 3 EPL players who drastically effect their team winning?
Rodri - Win vs Nottingam(Rodri played✅️) (Rodri played the first 46 minutes and got a red card, but he helped City get an early 2-0 while he was playing) Loss vs Newcastle (Rodri didnt play❌️) Loss vs Wolves (Rodri did not play❌️) Win vs Leipzig (Rodri played✅️) Loss vs Arsenal (Rodri didnt play❌️)
The last time Rodri lost a game that he played in for City was February 5th 2023 vs Tottenham.
Van Dijk - 2020/21 ACL tear - just got into UCL due to allison header winning 8 out of 10 last matches
Saka - repeatedly made to play by arteta even when injured
Values?
Green Lizard - becoming environmentally friendly
Social programme for charities
