small groups and war(14) Flashcards
what is Rational Policy Model
- Model I assumes states are unitary rational actors: that the actors are their governments, and that they choose their actions on the basis of a rational comparison of different policy alternatives in order to maximize their gains. It is a simplifying assumption.
- To uncover why a state enacted a policy one simply needs to determine the goal of that policy. This is the rational model we looked at earlier.
The Rational Policy Model explanation of Soviet-American behavior assumes two propositions on the practice of nuclear deterrence that was central to the Cuban Missile Crisis:
- (1). Second-strike nuclear deterrence reduces the likelihood of nuclear war because when both sides have a guaranteed portion of their force that will survive an attack and can be used for retaliation, neither side can gain anything from an initial attack.
- (2). Nonetheless, states will seek first-strike capabilities and nuclear superiority in the belief that it is possible to obtain a sufficiently large advantage that the second-strike capabilities of the enemy can be overcome.
Problems with the Rational Policy Model (I):
- According to Games Theory, there is no such thing as an optimal collective decision-making model of the general will, or democracy, if by democracy we mean all those values and procedures we believe give it legitimacy and make it different from non-democratic approaches
what is Condorcet Paradox
as the number of actors and preferences increase, there will be an increased likelihood of cycling, which means that collectively there will be no consistent social preference ordering (intransitive social preferences).
The Condorcet Paradox demonstrates that…
states do not make decisions as if they were unitary rational actors.
what is K.J. Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem
to have democracy you need a method of choosing, implementing, and enforcing a voting procedure or agenda, all of which contradicts the basic assumptions of democracy.
nonsense to claim that a policy represents the will of the people since the will of the people depends on the process of representation, which distorts, one way or another, the outcome.
what is Model II: Organizational Process Model
- Governments are not in reality unitary rational actors, but are in fact a set of interacting organizations, each with their own goals and procedures.
o Their organizational processes detect and define the problems, provide and implement alternatives, and constrain to a large extent the policy choices of their leaders - Governments rely on a number of specialized organizations to execute all the tasks relevant to the conduct of governing.
o Individuals within organizations rely on routines and standard operating procedures (SOPs) to execute the task of the organization. - Governmental leaders can at best operate within the organizational processes:
o They must employ capabilities within these limits although they have some capacity in combining these organizational outputs.
what are the Propositions of Organizational Process Model (8)
- (1). Organizations operate according to routines and standard operating procedures that permit their efficient specialization but at the same time limit their ability to adapt to new circumstances.
- (2). Standard Operating Procedures are routines to deal with standard situations.
o Without SOPs, an individual approach to each problem would raise the cost in terms of time and applied resources. - (3). Organizations are at best capable of incremental change, and at worst resist it.
o However, they will adapt and learn depending on their routines. - (4). Intra-organizational resource distribution change incrementally.
- (5). Cybernetic decision-making: this argues that policy-decisions are normally too complex to be handled by any single organization, and therefore has its components sub-divided between different specialized organizations.
o Cybernetics argues that dysfunctions occur when a single component of a decision-making process is excluded, perhaps unintentionally, thereby creating a distorted output that is not detectable by the other organizations.
o Sub-organizations, because they lack the “full picture,” do not optimize, but satisfice – they look for the first best solution regardless of the overall goal. - (6). Organizations may suffer from the need to recoup of sunk costs in order to justify expenditures and justify its budget.
- (7). Principal-Agent Problem: ensuring that the policy that is formulated by the agent is the one that is executed by the principals.
- (8). Collective Action Problem.
what is Model III: Bureaucratic Politics Model:
- In a bureaucratic politics model of decision-making, bargaining occurs along regularized channels among a multiplicity of players positioned hierarchically within the government, and these players bargain for a variety of national, organizational and personal goals.
o Organizational decentralization, slack, or discretion, permits players the freedom to negotiate, and it is this political process of bargaining and compromise that produces policy outcomes.
Where you sit determines…
where you stand.
o Individuals bargain on behalf of, and in the interest of, their organizations in order to mobilize their support.
o Bargainers are consequently less concerned with the overall issue than the impact it has on their goals.
Bargaining does not occur in an open space, but…
within specified and situationally determined channels.
* Personality and less tangible factors that determine bargaining performance matter.
Negotiators that represent and fight for positions on the basis of narrow self-interest are normally unable to aggregate the numbers necessary to implement policy..
o This requires coalitions that are obtained through vote-trading:
In which two groups promise mutual support in different issue areas, and this often requires both parties to sacrifice some amount of their interest.
o Players therefore vote strategically – in such a fashion as to obtain a positive outcome, rather than voting sincerely on a policy.
Comprehensive vote-trading can lead to a dysfunction referred to as log-rolling, in which multiple-policy packages are move in unintended directions based on the composition of the compromise.
