Diversionary theory and war

Question 1

what is diversionary theory of war ( assumption by the media )

Answer 1

a state’s leadership elite anticipates outcomes of domestic violence, caused either by domestic or economic conflict, and diverts the attention of his or her population from problems at home by starting a war against an exaggerated external threat.

Question 2

facing declining support relative to political challengers either because of economic issues or domestic turmoil), leaders have a number of options:

Answer 2

o They can improve the economy, address or suppress the domestic turmoil, or alternately, shift the public attention abroad, termed externalization.
o Logically, the expected utility of externalizing (meaning the success payoff times the probability minus the penalty of defeat times the probability) should be lower than dealing with the domestic issues.
o So these policies that link economic decline and its link to external war matter more for major powers than for minor powers.

Question 3

the rally around the flag effect

Answer 3

• It was found that during the Cold War, U.S. presidential popularity ratings increased by 4-5% for a short time following conflictual behavior with the Soviet Union and dropped by 2% following cooperative behavior with the Soviet Union.
  o This is called the rally around the flag effect, and its basic logic of hawkish nationalism is based on the ingroupism/outgroupism logic (G&S:52; Gelpi 1997).

Question 4

a major assumption of this theory as applied to democracies is that state leaders are both smarter and more

Answer 4

warlike than their citizens.

Question 5

Associations with diversionary behavior are

Answer 5

(non-overwhelming) domestic unrest, high unemployment, high inflation, slow economic growth, a robust opposition, and low approval ratings.

Question 6

• More fine grained results: democracies have the greatest incentives to engage in diversionary war, but also

Answer 6

the fewest opportunities.

Question 7

o We can therefore use regime type to specify this likelihood:

Answer 7

 Diversionary theory is least likely to explain war in democracies, where populations are most conscious of the costs of war.
 Military regimes are disconnected from symbolic domestic issues and are therefore unresponsive to popularity issues.
 Authoritarian regimes, which rely on a mixture of military force and popular support, are the most prone for a diversionary cause of war.