Methodology

Question 1

what is the Hawthorne experiment?

Answer 1

Humans are like
clouds, very difficult to predict the shape because of the intense complexity. When pure scientists accuse social science of a lag of rigor, they ignore that human complexity – we invite any of them to predict how this class would dress on a given day, which is far simpler than predicting wars or economic depressions.

Question 2

what are the two sources opf information in the social science world?

Answer 2

deduction and induction

Question 3

what is deduction?

Answer 3

Axiomatic reasoning; drawing conclusions for postulates (uses internal consistency criteria for validation). EG: Since wars make people suffer, we can deduce that it would be rational for most people to wish to avoid them.

Question 4

what is induction?

Answer 4

Empirical reasoning; drawing conclusions from observed behavior (uses external consistency criteria for validation). Empirical: means knowledge obtained through research from nature. EG: If we want to know where war is most
frequent, we go and make a count.

Question 5

what are the 8 elements of a theory?

Answer 5

-the research question or puzzle
-the literature review of current hypothesis
-list of current hypothesis
-alternative hypothesis
-identification of variables
-the test design
-the case selection
-evaluation of findings and policy recommendation

Question 6

what are counterfactual?

Answer 6

events that could have happen but didn’t

Question 7

what is March’s falsification criterium?

Answer 7

you cannot prove a theory to be correct, but you can disprove it. (probabilistic) Technically you can’t really disprove a theory, which is why you break a theory into hypotheses with indicators, and disprove these.

Question 8

what is the method of difference?

Answer 8

consists of selecting circumstantially similar cases, and then comparing the application of the cause in one case with the absence of the cause in the second case.

Question 9

what is the method of agreement?

Answer 9

consists of selecting dissimilar cases and isolating common independent and dependent variables. Assumption: univariate causes (no interaction effects).

Question 10

what is negative power?

Answer 10

a power that produces undesirable and unintended outcomes

Question 11

does theory precedes observation?

Answer 11

always. ex; colors are not real but perception of light

Question 12

what is the test design?

Answer 12

Competing explanations:3 Hypotheses must either be falsified or put into competition with one another to see which provides the best predictions and/or explanation.We are trying to establish correlation (which is not causation).

Question 13

can you prove a theory?

Answer 13

We can show correlation but cannot prove or show causation.
_So we must disprove.

Question 14

what are the two methods of falsification?

Answer 14

either falsified by the available data ( popperian criterium )
(2) an alternative theory exists that explains more( lakatosian criteria ).

Question 15

what is a endogeneity probelm?

Answer 15

when a cause is also a outcome of the process examined. ex: arms races may be a cause of war but also a product of interstate hostility

Question 16

what is the case selection

Answer 16

derive easy and hard cases ( hard case is the one that is the most likely case for the original explanation )

Question 17

how to test a theory?

Answer 17

sample of cases

Question 18

what are the signs of a good theory?

Answer 18

-leverage and parsimony
-explicitly falsifiable
-generalizable
-reproducible
-has heuristic power(lead to futher questions)

Question 19

what is the central limit theorem?

Answer 19

all observable behaviours in nature can be approximated in a normal ball curve. b

Question 20

what are the three level of analysis?

Answer 20

• individual ( bureaucracies, domestic political systems )
  -the state ( monadic ), pair of states dyads , regions
• the internations, system

Question 21

what is the problem of reductionism?

Answer 21

dysfunction that occurs when we attribute the dynamics of one process at one level of analysis to the dynamic of a process at another level of analysis. For example, we often make reductionist errors when we anthropomorphize the state and assume that it behaves like an individual human. States cannot hate or love, or be suspicious, like humans. States have interests, not friends or enemies.

Question 22

what is the definition of war?

Answer 22

Armed contest between two independent political units (not intra- state), by means of organized military force, usually fought for political ends.
Not all wars need have casualties (some definitions require 1000 battle-deaths, but then this would disqualify the 1982 Falklands War).
* Not all wars need be declared – in fact, most are not.
* Wars may not be fought for political ends – some pursue war for glory.

Question 23

what is the definition of peace?

Answer 23

is the lack of militarized contest between two independent political units.
Peace is the opposite: if we want to explain war, we must also be able to explain peace (they describe two different states of the same object – the international system).

Question 24

what are three types of causes of war

Answer 24

(1): Causes of war as an activity (a constant – related to human nature).
* (2): The cause of a specific war.
* (3): Causes of war that explain variance: when wars happen and not.
o We will examine the third cause of war in detail.

Question 25

what are two type of cause of war

Answer 25

• (I): States disagree on the shared distribution of power
  Explanation: the weaker state submits to the stronger state when there is full information.
• (II): War happens when:
  o (1) the status quo becomes intolerable.
  o (2) the state preempts a feared attack.
  ▪ EG: Tripartite Agreement: 1955 Czech Arms Deal leads Israel to attack Egypt.