Revolution and war (20) Flashcards
o Generally, when domestic turmoil becomes violent or mass-based, the state becomes
less likely to engage in external war
- The logical link between domestic and external violence is complex
o Some states are too domestically violent to be able to organize external violence.
o Some states are so domestically violent that they export violence without state sanction, leading to an inter-state war.
o Some states are so domestically violent that other states attack it believing it is weak.
Definition of revolution
destruction of an existing state by members of its own society, followed by the creation of a new political order (excluding coups d’etat, pure national liberation movements, and civil orders without advocacy of a new political order).
2 types of revolution
a). Mass Revolutions: revolutions from below: political participation by groups that were excluded under previous regime.
(b). Elite Revolution: revolutions from above: old regime challenged by a new movement whose leaders are former members of the old regime.
How do revolutionaries behave?
- (1). First, the administrative capacity of the state is weakened following the revolution because the new revolutionary leaders do not have the same skill to lead their state;
- (2). Second, revolutions require successful political activity to overcome the collective action problem: the fact that almost all citizens want the government to change but are not themselves willing to risk capture and death.
3). The violence experienced during the revolution generally makes revolutionaries extremists, either because they had to adapt to the violence, or because the more extreme revolutionaries replaced those who were more accommodating.
the threefold propaganda of revolutionary movements:
(a). They describe their opponents as evil, including the old regime and external supporters or former allies;
(b). They claim that victory is inevitable;
(c). They proclaim universal applicability of the revolution.
The policy effect of this once a revolution is consolidated is to:
- (1). Revolutionaries overrate the possibility of success because they come to believe their own revolutionary ideology;
- (2). Their fragile hold on power and their generally vulnerable position encourages them to seek to spread the revolutionary ideology before it is extinguished by reactionary elements;
- (3). Because of their sense of vulnerability, revolutionaries become hostile to external states they suspect of harbouring exiles.
balance-of-threat theory
This is a realist theory that argues that states calculate threats from other states three cumulative way
This is a realist theory that argues that states calculate threats from other states three cumulative way
- (1). Aggregate capability: how strong is the other state in terms of relative power;
- (2). The perception of the intent of the other state: is it passive or aggressive?
- (3). The offense-defense balance: are the weapons of the enemy better used in the attack than the defense, and does it make them more likely to attack?
Main Hypothesis: Revolutions increase the likelihood of war by:
- (1) Create the fear of the spread of the revolution.
o Walt finds that revolutionary states speak aggressively but do not act aggressively – they are generally attacked from the outside. - (2) Create conflicts of interests between the new regime and old allies.
o This is due mainly because the revolutionaries assume that external states are hostile because it is there that the defeated elites have fled, and also because revolutionary sympathizers in these external states typically encourage the spread of the revolution. - (3) Uncertainty pervades all these calculations because old lines of communications are disrupted and are unavailable.
o Prior commitments and treaties are disrupted and external states have difficulty judging the policies of the new state. - (4) These revolutionary disruptions create changes in power and windows of opportunity
two main alternative hypotheses
- Alternative Hypothesis #1: Wars happen because revolutionary states attack their neighbours: this is not empirically supported because revolutionary states are usually not the aggressors.
- Alternative Hypothesis #2: Domestic divisions within the revolution lead to elite or popular scapegoating in which foreigners are blamed and war is therefore exported. Again, this is not empirically supported because revolutionary states are usually not the aggressors.
Policy illusions of revolutions:
- (1). Exporting revolutions is very difficult because of the balance of power and very rarely are the domestic conditions in one state that caused the revolution similar to the domestic circumstances in another.
- (2). Interventions are difficult: states should be careful not to exaggerate the likelihood of a successful intervention.
- What does Walt’s theory tell us about appropriate policies to adopt if a revolution were to occur in a pivotal state such as Saudi Arabia?
Criticisms of Walt’s Revolution and War:4
- (1). It is possible that the states would have gone to war anyway.
o A student of mine some three years ago wrote an ingenious paper arguing that the French Revolution made no difference because France was on the verge of a systemic war anyway: counterfactually, had the revolution not occurred, the French Monarchy was going to make a bid against the other major powers of Europe. - (2). His notion of revolution is very normative: revolution implies away from the norm as opposed towards a norm: revolutions that bring states closer ideologically do not cause war:
- (3): Revolutions do not lead to war if the revolutionary state is extremely weak and of no consequence: Walt thereby ignores the role of the system.
- (4): Some of these new revolutionary states do not create uncertainty, but immediately seek alliances during or immediately after the revolution.
Edmund Burke & Crane Brinton’s Thermidorian Reaction:
A second theory that link revolution to wars argues that
it is the domestic cycle of revolutions that produce war. This theory, it is the revolutionary state that initiates the war. It is based metaphorically on the French revolution of 1789.
Revolutions proceed through five evolutionary stages:
- (1). Old Regime: The pre-Revolutionary government.
- (2). Spontaneous Revolt: a military, bourgeoisie, peasant or urban worker revolt installs a revolutionary government.
- (3). Rule and Demise of the Moderates: the moderate revolutionary leaders encounter problems while seeking to domestically consolidate the revolution, but are delegitimized as compromising with members of the old regime.
- (4). Rise of the Extremists and the Reign of Terror: Extremist revolutionaries seize control of government and seek to create a purified leadership that leads to a reign of terror that ultimately consumes the extremists themselves.
- (5). Thermidorian Reaction: The domestic anarchy in the state leads to a complete breakdown of legitimacy and in the vacuum the pre-revolutionary military take-over.
o In the case of France, this consisted of Napoleon. With the military now in charge, the state behaves as a military state does, which we looked at earlier: prone to escalate crises rapidly.
