risk and uncertainity Flashcards
precautionary principle
to prevent false negatives (evidence later emerging of harmful effect)
in times of uncertainity where POSSIBLE risks exist
rio declaration on environment and development 1992
gives governments power to invoke precatuionry principle in policy; specifically in environmental policies
john snow
chloera 1854; he thought water pump might be cause; removed it without certaniity
rachel carson
wrote ‘silent spring’; adverse effects of industry on environment and health
jerome ravetz 2006
uncertainity; uncertainity is a way of knowing where imperfection is recognized; openness is important;
- handling uncertainity as important for scientsits/experts in Public interaction
UN intergovrnmental panel on climate change
want to reduce carbon emmissions by 60% by 2050
donald trumsfeld 2002
US secretary of defense in iraq;
unknown unknown
known unkonwns
known knowns
stirling 2007 on risk
risk= probability of an event x magniture of an event
thalomide
an ‘acute risk’; just because there is absense of evidnece of risk doesnt mean there is no risk
- 1950 morning sickness drug that caused birth abnormalities later on (only affected UK as US more septical with policy)
examples of risk
- vaccines
0 GMO - Zika and prego
- drugs
Gigerenzer on Risk Effect/Risk Perception
9/11; additionall 1000 people died as increased preference for driving over flying
Japan Nuclear Station 2011
partial meltdown due to tsunami and earthwuake and backup generation crashing= UNLIKELY circumstances sitll invoked an effect
gillinksy 2017
looks at risks of power plants
wilson 1979
calculated risk comparision of health from living 5 miles from nuclear power plants is the same as 50 years of:
- eating 50 tbs of peanut butter
- living for 2 days in new york
perception of risk ;slovic 1987
people look at what people THINK risk is;
for example;
US fear of nuclear power due to Mile Island partial metldown= pbulic perceptio nnot fixed
experts place nuclear power as 20, college students place it as 1.
