Reasoning, Judegement and Decision making Flashcards
what is reasoning
cognitive processes by which people start with information and come to conclusions that go beyond that information
deductive reasoning
any form of reasoning in which the conclusions follow with certainty from the premises
inductive reasoning
any form of reasoning in which the conclusions follow only probabilistically from the premises
syllogisms
logical arguments containing two statements called premises and a third statement called a conclusion
can be valid or invalid
is valid if the conclusion follows logically from its two premises
cateogrical syllogisns
describe the relation between two categories using the terms all no or some eg aristotle's perfect syllogism premise 1 = all a are b premise 2 = all b are c conclusion therefore all a are c
validity vs truth
validity = refers to form
truth = refers to content
but note that if two presmises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogism’s conclusion must also be true
how well can people judge validity
evaluation = ask people if the conclusion follows logically from the premise
production = ask people to indicate what logically follows from the premise
many errors in evaluation
-belief bias
-atmosphere effect
belief bias
if the syllogisms conclusion is something people already believe to be true, they are more likely to judge the conclusion as following from the preises
atmosphere effect
the logical terms (all, no, some, not) used in the premised of the syllogism bias people to accept conclusions that have the same terms
consitional statements and syllogisms
conditional syllogisms are another form of deductive reasoning
a conditional statemtn has the form if P, then Q
first part = antecedent provides th ocndition under which the second part (consequence) is guaranteed to be tru
in judging the validity of conditional syllogisms how well do people generally do
if p, then q..
affirming the antecende = good
denying the consequent = ok
affirming the consequent = poor
denying the antecedent = poor
wason four card problem
used to test the effect of using real world items in a conditional reasoning problem
-if a card has a vowel on one side, then it must have an even number on the other side
-which cards must be turned over to test this rule
eg EK47
falsification principle
to test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule
most participatns of wason four-card problem fail to do this
when problem is stated in concrete everyday term, correct responses generally increase
how to make wason four-card problem more concrete and waht happend
if a person is drinking beer, then the person must be over 21 years of age
which cards must be turned over to test this rule
when the problem is stated in concrete, everyday terms, correct responses greatly increase
why is the more concrete version of the wason four-card problem easier
a person performance can be greatly enhanced when the material to be judged has meaningful content
two possible explanations for this effect
1 - permission schema
2 - familiarity with the rule
permission schema
evolutionary psychologists suggest people can detect cheaters who are not following rules of social itneraction
-permission schem: if a is satisfied, b can be carried out - used in concrete version: if 21 can drink beer
an alternative explanation is that particiaptns simply have greater familiarity with the rule
can we discriminate between these two explanations?
testing familiarity vs permission
-cosmides and tooby
created unfamiliar situations where cheating could occue
-if a man eats root, he must have tattoo
-participants did well
-evidence against familiarity account
take-home message: cheating (or permission) within context is important, familiarity is not always important
induction in inductive reasoning
a pattern of reasoning in which one seeks to draw general claims from specific bits of evidence
premises are based on observation
we generalise from these cases to braoder conclusionswith varying degrees of certainty
eg based on what you know about cars, which is the best to buy
strength of argument in inductive reasoning
representativeness of observations
number of observations
quality of observations
how we use inductive reasoning
used to make scientific discoveries
-hypotheses and general conclusions
used in everyday life
-make a prediction about what will happen based on observations about what has happened in the past
heuristics
a quick, best-guess solution to a problem (short cut of sorts)
are strategies that are reasonably efficient and work most of the time
when using heuristics, we gain efficiency at the expense of more error
availability heuristic
events more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered
- do more words begin with k or have k as a third letter
- ease with which examples come to mind is used as an idex of frequency or likelihood
representativeness heuristic
the probability a comes from b can be determined by how well a resembles the properties of b
with this heuristic, people assume a greater degree of uniformity of a certain thing, group or event than may actually be true
when do we use base rates
if this is all the information that is available to us
but use descriptive info if available and disregard base rate info
what is a conjunction fallacy
when two events that can occur together or separately are seen as more likely to occur together
conjunction rule
the probability of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
law of large numbers
the larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
confirmation bias
is a tendency to seek out evidence that confirms one’s beliefs and to discount evidence that challenges ones beliefs
- developing a scientific theory
- maintaining a sterotype
- wason’s 2-4-6 task illustrates confirmation bias
dual process models
people have two distinct ways of thinking about evidence they encounter
system 1 - refers to think that is fast, automatic and uses heuristics
system 2 - refers to thinking that is slower effortful and more likely to be correct
whether context 1 or 2 is used depends on the context of the decision (time, attention, working memory available), how problem is presented etc
emphasizing chance cues…
statistical reasoning
what increases the likelihood people will pay attention to base rates
background knowledge
one way we can increase the likelihood of reasoning with system 2
training
- participants can be trained that large samples of data are more reliable than small samples
- taking a stats class also improves reasoning when a sample size is important
decision- making vs reasoning
decision making can involve inductive and deductive reasoning
study of decision making emphasises how people choose between different courses of action
economic utility theory
of decision making
assumes people are rational
if they have all the relevant info, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility
expected value = probability of a particular outcome x utility of the outcome
utility = outcomes that are desireable becuase they are in the persons best interest
-maximum monetary pay off
advantages for utility approach
specific procedures to determine the best choice
problems for utility approach
not necessarily money, people find value in other things
many decision invovle pay offs that cannot be calculated
people are often not rational thinkers
peoples choices that do not follow the logic of probabliity
gambling in casinos - the house always wins
gamblers fallacy after 7 H, neither H nor T is more likley
driving to avoid danger of flying = increase in traffic deaths following 9/11
deal or no deal
26 brief cases, one owned by contestant, reat opened one by one
with each opening offer from bank based on amounts received
research shows people do not respond optimally in these situations
post (2008) found that responses (caution vs risk) were influenced by how well the contestant had been doing up to that point - those who were doing more poorly were more likely to take risks
emotions affect decisions
expected emotions - emotions that people predict that they will feel concerning an outcome
immediate emotions - experienced at the time a decision is being made
integral - associated the act of making a decision (eg anxiety)
incidental - unrelated ot the decision
predictions of emotions related to decision making
people inaccurately predict their emotions
predicted negative response to losing money much stronger than predicted positive response to gaining money
overestimated both, but especially the negative
how decision making is effected by incidental emotions
people will pay more on average for a good when they are sad
will sell the good for less when sad or disgusted (compared to neutral)
hypothesis - related to desire for change associated with negative moods
framing effect
decision are influenced by how a decision is stated
-can highlight one aspect of situation
opt in vs opt out procedures
risky decision
risk-aversion strategy used when problem is stated in terms of gains
risk-taking strategy when problem is stated in terms of losses
tversky and shafir decision making exp
subjects given s story about passing or failing a tough exam
then given choice to buy or not buy or postpone the decision (for a cost) of whether to buy a vacation
no difference between pass and fail groups in likelihood of purchasing vacation now
i don’t know yet - wait to find out results before making decision to go on trip or not (so pay more later)
but passing and failling didn’t make a differnce! just wanted a reason to buy the vacation
prefrontal cortex and decision making
important for planning
PFC damage interferes with ability to act in a flexible manner (important for problem solving)
damage = impairs ability on problems like tower of hanoi
important for reasoning, planning and making connections among different parts of a problem or story
damage = have trouble with difficult deductive reasoning problems
as reasoning problems become more complex, larger areas of the PFC are activated
perseveration
cannot swithc from one pattern of behaviour to another
orbitofrontal cortex role in decision making
essential for evaluation of somatic markers of decision making eg tight stomach, fast heart rate
patients with damage will make risky decisions
-will continue to draw from risky decks of cards instead of the safe decks that would lead them to a higher overall payoff
ultimatum game
offers made - logical to always accept as is always money
often rejected low offers becuase they became nagry that offers were unfair
less angry though when told it was a computer making the offers
physiology of ultimatum game
more activation of right anterior insula (connected with emotional states) = participants more likely to reject more offers
PFC equally active for accepting or rejecting offers
emotion is important in decision making
flu vaccine decision shows
omission bias - tendency to do nothing to avoid making a decision that could be interpreted as harm
put off / try not make decision
changes drastically if you are making the choice for yourself than others
