reading 1 - intro Flashcards
what is security studies? brief overview
- often seen as one of the most important subfields of IR (arguments against this)
- relatively recent (after WW2) + largely European and American
- golden age during 50s and 60s (close connection with gov) (focus on crisis management, nuclear deterrence, and armed forces and resource allocation)
- during cold war: focus on political realism + 4 S’s (states, strategy, science, status quo (preservative))
- key development 1983 = Buzan
Buzan 1983
book: People, States and Fear
undermined 2/4 S’s: state (security related to all human collectivities, not just states) + strategy (not only focus on military force)
alternative aproach: security of human collectivities affected by:
- military security (strategic studies as subset of security studies)
- political scurity: organizational stability states, systems of gov and ideologies that legitimize them
- economic security: access to resources, finance and markets to sustain welfare and state power
- societal security: sustainability and evolution of traditional patterns of language, culture, religious and national identity and custom
- environmental security: maintenance of local and planetary biosphere
framework does not focus on gender -> does not disrupt focus on maintaining status quo
problems with seeing security studies as subset of IR
- inter-state relations are just one aspect of contemporary security dynamics (more actors)
- intellectual reasons -> it can’t live in IR’s disciplinary shadow: IR dominated by Anglo-American men focus on political realism, for someone and for some purpose
- contemporary security problems complex and interdependent -> require analysis and solutions IR alone can’t provide
-> unhelpful to think of it as subfield of IR
-> security should be seen as AREA OF ENQUIRY REVOLVING LOOSELY AROUND A SET OF CORE QUESTIONS
defining a field of enquiry: 4 fundamental questions
security studies as area of enquiry revolving loosely around a set of core questions (intellectual core):
- what is security?
- whose security are we talking about?
- what counts as security issue?
- how can security be achieved?
+ additional questions depending on theoretical orientation (e.g. feminism)
- what is security?
= contested concept
most common = alleviation of threats to cherished values
- especially those which threaten survival of a something in the near feature
- survival and security are not synonymous: survival is existential condition, security involves ability to pursue political/social ambitions
-> security = survival-plus (Ken Booth): freedom fro life-determining threats and therefore some life choices
2 philosophies of secrity:
- security = accumulation of material power -> security as commodity (to be secure you need certain amount of x,y,z, especially material power)
- security based on emancipation: concern with justice and provision of human rights (not a commodity but relationship between diff actors)
- freedom from vs freedom to (relations in negative terms vs positive terms)
- security involves gaining confidence about relationships (e.g. US diff concern about North Korean nuclear weapons than about French)
- whose security?
what is the referent object that is threatened, what is being secured?
debate continues about who/what is the main referent object
- central focus along the sweep of human history = people -> human security (focus on dignity rather than weapons)
- IR = state + national interest -> focus on state/regime security
- society (bc part of being human is being part of a social group)
- focus on referent objects from lowest level of analysis through sources of collective identities
- (new view with climate crisis, Anthrophocene era) = focus on planet Earth as a whole, on the environment bc that is essential for human life (without it the rest is irrelevant)
- what is a security issue?
who decides which of a referent object’s cherished values are threatened, and by what or whom?
representatives of groups and organizations construct threat agendas + not all groups and threat agendas are of equal political significance (e.g. UNSC more consequential for world politics than national SC)
- core: inequalities of power and influence -> on what agendas should we focus?
academic debate:
- traditional = focus on armed conflict and military force (also argues that broadening the field reduces coherence and explanatory power and utility)
- focus on security as alleviating most serious and immediate threats that prevent people from pursuing their cherished values -> e.g. lack of efficient healthcare also important
- how can security be achieved?
what level of threat are actors willing to tolerate before taking remedial actions?
tolerance levels vary in light of events and as circumstances change
world is full of actors engaged in the politics of security provision, agenda’s are not always stated in such terms (e.g. states, IOs, social movements, criminal organizations, humanitarian groups)
- e.g. actors with ability to disseminate a persuasive message = Greta Thunberg attention to climate change + Zelensky mobilized opposition to Russia’s invasion
-> focus on understanding environments in which actors operate and how analysts should respond when their agendas conflict
traditional theoretical approach vs critical theoretical approach to security
traditional approaches:
- positivist epistemology + material ontology (focus on material power)
- narrow definition of security: preservation of the state or international system
- focus on explanation and prediction
- take the world as currently constituted as starting point
- realist theories = archetypal traditional approach (realism and traditional security often used interchangeable) = security as preservation of the state from military threat
critical approaches:
- post-positivist epistemology (no objective analysis) + broader ontology of security (not just material power, also discourse and ideas)
- ask how existing order came to be + whose interests it serves (security as socially constructed)
!some approaches straddle a traditional-critical divide, e.g. liberal approaches focus on status quo etc. (realism) + focus on values (critical)
syll question: what is global security?
syll question: why is security a contested concept?
syll question: in your view, what are the most important security threats in 2025 and why?
interlinked conflicts make unintended consequences likelier
if adventurism is on the rise, knock-on effects (how rivals sensing the same loosened fetters might react) are harder to foresee
Trump brings fresh uncertainty + risk of miscalculations
many conflicts in the world -> generalising what drives turmoil is hard
(China-Russia-North Korea-Iran “axis” increasingly helps each other out, main interest in resisting US power and evading sanctions)
2025 unpredictable, slide into lawlessness looks set to continue
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Syria
- Sudan
- Ukraine and European security
- Israel-Palestine
- Iran vs US and Israel
- Haiti
- US-Mexico
- Myanmar
- Korean peninsula
- China-US
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Syria
Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship has fallen (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leading the Idlib province took Aleppo and moved south, regime fell in less than 2 weeks)
- suc6 bc: Assad relied on support Hizbollah, Iran and Russia -> neglected own forces + supporters were focused on other issues (Israel + Ukraine)
immediate danger = disorder: HTS forces overstretched + other former rebels active
other challenge = governing: HTS jihadi roots -> fear Islamist edicts + many diff groups want a role (alienating is dangerous bc proliferation arms)
also outside dangers: Israeli bombs (“defensive”) + Turkey indirectly driving SDF (kurdish led syrian democratic forces) out of towns)
lastly: western and UN sanctions need to be loosened
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Sudan
most devastating war (people displaced and hungry)
Rapid Support Forces (RSF, led by “Hemedti”) against Sudanese army (headed by al-Burhan)
- leaders first shared power after 2019 ouster al-Bashir
army relies on militias + Darfuri rebels
war risks roiling Sudan’s neighbours; South Sudan’s oil revenues have tanked, refugee, Chad president allows Emirati weapons to flow through Chad leads to anger of his own Zaghawa clan
outside meddling -> competing camps Horn of Africa
SAudi Arabia has hosted talks in Jeddah, little success, recently US appointed a Sudan envoy
worryingly: talk about partition (army north and east + RSF holding west and other areas)
ending the war needs to be a higher priority
Trump shows little interest in Sudan, may defer to Gulf power there, would be a mistake (US can push Egypt and UAE to forge a deal)
violent breakup could destabilise the Horn, Red Sea and farther
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Ukraine and European security
Trump promised to end the war by negotiating with Putin
- Russian forces have upper hand, but immense cost (death+ eco sanctions), Putin believes he is winning but seems willing to talk
- Kyiv not giving up, US aid unclear, too few trained soldiers
negotiations would be though: Kyiv recognizes Russia will keep 1/5 of occupied territory, issue is Russia demand to demilitarise or cap army size
Ukraine and Western backers disagree about what deterrence should look like (NATO membership not likely in near future) + Putin unlikely to agree
negotiations likely to fall or yield
Trump seems inclined to force more European defence spending, but ambiguity can embold Putin, could lead to major European crisis
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Israel-Palestine
Isreal is reshaping Gaza’s geography: besieging and emptying north of Gaza City + expanding buffer zone along perimeter with Isreal
Trump unclear: told Netanyahu he wants it ended before assuming office, not clear how
even with ceasefire, society in Gaza can’t recover soon
Isreal appears posed to annex the West Bank: moving from military to civilian control without formal annexation
slim hope in the Gulf: Trump wants Saudi Arabia to normalise diplomatic ties with Israel, perhaps Riyadh can persuade Trump to lean on Isreal to keep Palestinian statehood a viable option
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Iran vs US and Israel
Iran Axis of Resistance = Assad regime Syria + collection of militant groups surrounding Iran = protection and region-wide influence
second half of 2024 = Axis of resistance around Israel (Tehran) broken: deterrent against Israeli or US attacks is broken
Iran’s nuclear program since Trump broke out of the 2015 nuclear deal -> Iran has small breakout time -> but leader Khamenei sees nuclear concessions as ticket to sanctions stalling the econ
Trump advisors see Iran weakness as opportunity to cripple nuclear program or gov (toppling regime would destabilize and lead to war Trump doesn’t want)
rebooted maximum pressure effort with sanctions and military actions would still be dangerous: fuel on region already on fire
better = start with talks, threaten to turn up the heat when they fail
A chastened Iran might entertain previously unimagined concessions: not only nuclear checks but halting weapons shipments to Russia or an end to its support for militants in exchange for the United States pledging to not attack Tehran, or even an informal nonaggression pact with Israel.
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
Haiti
assassination president Jovenel Moise in 2021 -> criminal gangs have seized much of Haiti
2024 gang alliance (Viv Ansanm) besieged the capital of Port-au-Prince -> unpopular prime minister Henry resigned under international pressure -> transitional presidential council (representatives of major political/social forces) took over + Kenyan forces arrived to work with Haitian police against the gangs
now: corruption scandals + deployed paramilitaries to small force -> gangs emboldened, attacking safe havens
gov has called on UN for full peacekeeping mission, unclear if it will happen (Russia and China sceptical about political solution + Western experts quietely concur)
Trump unlikely to support the mission, he wants Haitians out of the US, but many flee to Florida -> may reconsider
talks/truce with gangs questionable: Haitians increasingly oppose gangs and don’t want to bargain
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
US-Mexico
Mexico: criminal gangs + cartels
US: Trump wants tariffs, send back migrants and bomb cartels
2006 war on drug cartels -> conflict among smaller criminal groups profiting from drugs transport to the north (US)
successive leaders failed to end the bloodshed + Mexico still highest murder rates
Trumps’ pick to become national security advisor co-sponsored legislation asking for authorisation to use force against cartels (far-fetched but popular)
tariffs problematic bc exports important for Mexico
Mexico (Sheinbaum) has asked Washington to deport migrants to country of origin (Mexico is a migrant buffer)
without cooperation, expect a bumpy ride
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Myanmar
rebels (e.g. Three Brotherhood Alliance) fight against military regime (since 2021) led by Min Aung Hlaing
vote in 2025 will bring further bloodshed
civil war -> displaced + crumbled health and edu systems + poverty + currency crash
2023 army started losing ground to ethnic armed groups, China first supported rebels, now the military junta (requiring elections, but that would lead to military-backed administration, as loathed as the current regime)
military remains on the backfoot + Kachin Independence Army has seized rare earth mines, taking control over Myanmar’s trade with China
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
- Korean Peninsula
2024: Kim Jong Un (North Korea) turned against policy of peaceful unification + ratified mutual defence pact with Moscow + deployed military to support Russia in Ukraine
Kim wants to further seal off North Korea from cultural exports + tightening grip on econ
Kim flexing military muscle with nuclear tests + threatened to redraw maritime borders with South Korea -> risks destabilising + attracting more US military assets -> China opposes
2024 Yoon failed power grab -> Yoon impeached
Trump return -> uncertainty: may demand Seoul pay more for protection, would boost calls for nuclear arsenal
+ Trump was close with nuclear diplomacy in his first term
Kim seems unlikely to launch a full-blown war: risk going nuclear, catastrophic for Asia and the world econ + likely lead to own demise
MAIN DANGER = miscalculation
10 conflicts to watch in 2025
China-US
2023 more even relations, but entrenched rivalry + Trump policy is unpredictable (mixed signals: confrontational on trade, lukewarm on Taiwan’s defence, cantankerous about US commitments to Asian allies, admiring Xi’s authority)
Trump talks about tariffs of 60%, likely opening salvo in talks rather than prelude to a trade war (would undercut China’s eco growth, but China could retaliate by banning critical mineral exports)
Trump might express scepticism about if defending Taiwan is feasible or try to make it to pay more for defence
- China may squeeze Taiwan if US support weakens + lash out if it increases
South China Sea: overlapping maritime claims -> clashes with the Philippines (US treaty ally, if a Philippine fatality than Marcos may invoke its defence pact with Washington) -> hard to avoid escalatory spiral)
2025 Preventive Priorities Survey
growing level of armed conflict recent years -> increased risk costly US military intervention (esp. in Middle East + Ukraine war may escalate)
Trump should craft policies to lessen dangers otherwise could become overwhelmed by multiple concurrent crises
findings:
- never so many contingencies with high likelihood and high impact since PPS began in 2008
- leading concern: further deterioration of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East
- second concern: aggressive behavior Russia and China
- several contingencies have risen since last year, e.g. Haiti from tier 3 to tier 1
- risk associated with North Korean provocations fell (tier 1->2)
some tier one contingencies
- high likelihood, high impact = Gaza, West Bank Israel, Ukraine, escalation between Iran and Israel, US-Mexico
- moderate impact, high likelihood = Haiti
- moderate likelihood, high impact = China-Taiwan, South China Sea
