Power and Developments Flashcards
What is population power and give an example.
A state with a larger population has larger military and economic capabilities; however, if a large amount lives in poverty, foreign policy may take the backburner
- China has now used its larger population to become the largest exporter but had to turn inwards after 2008 due to many being pushed into poverty
What is structural power and give an example.
A state’s capacity to influence the decision-making of IGOs.
- The P5 all have vetoes in the UNSC and the US essentially has a veto in the World Bank
What is regional power and give an example.
A state’s influence within a close region
- The US is the largest trading partner of Canada and Mexico and continues to influence South America
What is R&D power and give an example.
The amount a state spends on research and development, giving them a technological advantage
- The US was the first to develop the atom bomb
What is natural resource power and give an example.
States with large natural wealth can use it as bargaining chips or be more difficult to sanction due to others reliance on them
- Russia’s natural resources amount to $75tn and include coil, natural gas, and oil which countries like Italy (98% of their pipeline gas imports) rely on
What is hard power?
The ability of states to make other to do what they want, using ‘carrots’ or ‘sticks’
What is the ‘carrot’ and ‘stick’ of military power?
- Carrot: military personnel or technology, such as the use of American missiles in Ukraine
- Stick: use of power against a state
Give a Chinese, American, and Russian stats of military hard power.
- The US spends $900bn on the military, their biggest expenditure and 3x larger than 2nd, China.
- China has 2mn military personnel and 800 ships, the highest of both
- Russia is unique in that its military power comes from their willingness to use overt force, such as in Ukraine or Georgia
What is the ‘carrot’ and ‘stick’ of economic power?
- Carrot: trade agreements
- Stick: sanctions or tariffs
Give a Chinese, American, and Russian example of economic hard power.
- The US continually puts clauses in their trade agreements protecting human rights and workers’ conditions.
- China has been able to use its wealth to give loans to developing states to indebt them and increase their sphere of influence
- Minimal action has been taken against Russia and its invasion due to European dependence on Russian gas
What is soft power?
The ways in which a state achieves its aims using the attractiveness of its culture and political system
How is military power still important? Give a counter argument
Military power provides states the surest way to achieve their aims - the US was able to weaken their enemies in the Middle East with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, destroying Al Qaeda and dethroning Saddam Hussein
- States lose relations and other types of power when engaging in military operations only in their own interests - economic sanctions (all it’s £275bn foreign currency reserves were frozen) and expulsion from the G7/8 of Russia when they invaded in Ukraine
How is economic power still important? Give a counter argument
In a globalised market, holding economic power can give you control over investment, debt, corporations - China’s belt and Road Initiative has given them power by holding debt relief over nation’s heads and influence in one of the only other nations with nuclear weapons, Pakistan
- The efficacy of things like sanctions have been questioned, 16,500 of them having failing to end the war in Ukraine and the effect of tariffs only coming back to bite nations with trade wars
How is soft power important? Give a counter argument
In ‘The End of History, given cooperation is the game, a state’s ability to convince other states without use of force is a great tool - the Pew Research Centre found that the US is seen as technologically advanced, as well as having better than average education
- Soft power doesn’t give you control over an outcome, only the ability to influence it - the EU is hailed as a soft superpower but many states are increasingly ignoring its demands for rule of law, with Liberties reporting that the wave of populism has caused an “overall decline across the EU”
Outline smart power and give an example.
A state using both hard- and soft-power to achieve their goals
- Obama demonstrated in his addmittance of Western antagonism in his Cairo speech that he was willing to work with the Middle East. However, his use of drone strikes was fairly military.
Outline sharp power and give an example.
The attempt by a state to manipulate the image of itself in foreign nations, to mislead or divide public opinion or to divert attention. Autocracies are especially proficient at this given their tight hold over the media.
- Saudi Arabia has acquired stakes in foreign newspapers (such as The Independent) to help shape narratives and ‘sportswash’
What is a great power?
A great power has many definitions: Waltz defined it based on population, political stability, miltiary, etc. However, one can also argue a great power is defined by their ability to prject power past their borders.
What are Kenneth Waltz’s 5 criterion for a great power?
- Population and territory
- Resources
- Economic development
- Political Stability
- Competence and military strength
What is a superpower?
A country with great economic, military and cultural power, but that is characterised by its ability to have immediate influence in any part of the world immediately
What is an emerging power?
A country that has some of the criterion to be a greatpower but lacks in others
Give two ways that BRICS acts as a serious rival to the G7.
- BRICS+ represents 55% of the world’s population and 35% of the global GDP, as well as a combined military of 13.5 million
- BRICS’ New Development Bank has lent $32bn
Give two ways that BRICS is not a serious rival to the G7.
- The G7 is ideologically tight, even kicking Russia out when they invaded Ukraine, allowing group cohesion; BRICS is united only by rejection of Western ideals, not any shared ideals themselves - India has been a staunch opponent of the Belt and Road Initiative
- BRICS nations are still intimidated by the US - Brazil’s president allegedly did not attend a summit due to fear of appearing ‘anti-West’ and South Africa has refused to join a BRICS currency due to Trump’s threats of 100% tarriffs
How is the US still a superpower, militarily? Give a counterargument.
The US maintains the largest military in the world, with enduring influence globally - $900bn/year, defying the UN and invading Iraq
- Increasing protectionism has seen the US pull out of its globally military involvements, possibly signally a ‘stepping back’ under Trump - Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine in 6 months; Obama pulling out troops from Iraq and Afghanistan
How is the US still a superpower, economically? Give a counterargument.
The US maintains the largest economy in the world and holding strong structural power in economic institutes like the World Bank - $27tn GDP (2023) and veto in World Bank and IMF
- China has risen as a strong rival to the US, an exporting superpower (No. 1) and predicted to overtake the US (Global Times - 2035), also has structural power in the Asian Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and using the Belt and Road Initiative
How is the US still a soft superpower? Give a counterargument.
Countries around the world continue to adopt American-style Liberal Democracy; additionally, the power of the US brands maintains over seas - 80 more liberal democracies since 1984, American companies contribute more than 1/4 of the global GDP
- Since the invasion of Iraq, the idolisation of America has been largely dampened, with countries either seeing it as equal to or lesser than other similar states - The Pew Research Centre found that others nations saw the US as more dangerous and less toleranct than other similar states. However, the US still consistently ranks top of soft power index from Brand Finance.
How does the US’s military power outweigh China’s? Give a counter argument
The US maintains the most expensive military in the world; though China’s is also impressive, what makes the US superior is NATO, with 3.5 million troops and a growing membership (Norway) since the invasion of Ukraine, China’s closest comparison (BRICS) is mostly too scared of the US to back them
- China does outwiegh the US in personnel alone by about 700,000, as well as 2x as many naval assets; what makes China unique is their open willingness to push forth their military power, such as with operations to control the South China Sea
How does the US’s economic power outweigh China’s? Give a counter argument
The US maintains the largest economy in the world and holding strong structural power in economic institutes like the World Bank - $27tn GDP (2023) and vetoes in the World Bank and IMF
- China has risen as a strong rival to the US, an exporting superpower (No. 1) and predicted to overtake the US (Global Times - 2035), also has structural power in the Asian Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and using the Belt and Road Initiative
How does the US’s soft power outweigh China’s? Give a counter argument
Countries around the world continue to adopt American-style Liberal Democracy; additionally, the power of the US brands maintains over seas - 80 more liberal democracies since 1984, American companies contribute more than 1/4 of the global GDP
- China puts more work directly into gaining influence, across Asia and all the way to Africa - the BRI gives China significant leverage with indebted states, China has give more FDI to Africa every year since 2011 (peaking recently in 2018 at roughly $5.5bn)
Give an argument and counterargument to the superpower status of Russia.
Russia has an abundance of natural resources, holding 10-12% of the global oil supply; Russia is unique in its pure willingness to just do shit (largest nuclear arsenal) (the invasion of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, the political retribution in Georgia), Russia is feared rightfully, which is why states like Mongolia cooperate
- Russia’s soft power is minimal, their invasion of Ukraine has made them a relative global pariah, having 16,500 sanctions and having been expelled from the G8.
What is polarity?
The way in which power is distributed in the global system.
What is bipolarity?
The concentration of power with two equally matched competing states, others bandwagoning behind them to gain alliances and security. The two states rarely engage in direct warfare, often fighting in proxy wars.
Give 3 argument and counterargument for the stability of a bipolar system
- Bandwagoning V Hegemon domination
- MAD V nuclear proliferation and shows of power
- Balance of power and lack of direct conflict V Proxy wars
How does bandwagoning provide stability? give a counterargument.
From a realist perspective, bipolarity provides states with greater solidarity due to the common enemy, as well as clean-cut knowledge about who your enemies and allies are - there has never been a war between NATO nations
- Bandwagoning states are constantly dominated by the hegemon and ideals are heavily policed by conditional ‘allies’ - the Hungarian revolution was violently ended by the USSR, whereas Czech social reforms led to their invasion by 4 other Warsaw nations
How does MAD lead to stability? Give a counterargument
Neither state commits fully to conflict with the other as they are aware the equal nuclear capabilities would destroy them both - the end of the Cuban Missile crisis
- The result of this is the constant attempt to gain greater capabilities over the other (the arms race) and the display of that power (the bombing of Japan); additionally, MAD didn’t save us, as JFK put it, “We lucked out”
How does the balance of power of bipolarity lead to stability? Give a counterargument
Some political commentators have argued that the Cold War encouraged cooperation between poles as bot sided understood the best way to achieve their aims was to work with the other - SALT ensuring the Warsaw Pact was safe from invasion
- States do challenge one another via harmful proxy wars - up to 6 million Vietnamese and Korean dead with little to no progress for Korea; the Cold War was characterised by 14 seperate proxy wars, covering the entire period for 45 years
What is unipolarity?
The concentration of power with a single state, often acting as a ‘global policeman’ to keep other states in line
Give 3 argument and counterargument for the stability of a unipolar system
- Hegemon can act as a policeman to enforce stability V enforcement is often violent
- Lack of opportunity V unsustaibale
- Reduced rivalry V Resentment
How does the unipolarity’s ‘global policeman’ ensure stability? Give a counterargument.
The hegemon can use their awesome power to resolve conflicts peacefully and suppress alternative ideas that threaten stability- US attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan have been argued to weaken terrorist networks in the Middle East
- This suppresion is anything but peaceful and arent always successful - The Watson Institute estimates that more than 432,000 people have died in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001, with the destruction of Hussein’s regime only leading to greater chaos from the power vaccum. In the end, the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021.
How does unipolar lack of opportunity provide stability? Give a counterargument.
Other states lack the power to challenge the hegemon’s superiority so make no attempt to, avoiding conflict - the Cold War was characterised by 14 seperate proxy wars, covering the entire period for 45 years
- Unipolar power is unsustainable as inevitable some states gain enough power to challenge them - Modelski’s ‘long cycles theory’ argues that we exist in a cycle of global hegemony that starts and ends with global war, power moving to England after the wars of Louis XIV (>2mn dead) and to America after WWII (>50mn dead)
How does the unipolar reduced rivalry create stability? Give a counterargument.
A lack of rivalry decreases the tensions between states, this can increase trade and complex interdependence - US-Russian trade was $20bn in 2022; between 1989 and 2001, US military spending went down about $150bn
- States inevitably resent their inferiority, inspiring them to defy - BRICS is founded on anti-US domination; the growth of terrorist organisations like the Nigerian ‘Boko Haram’ which translates to ‘Western Education is forbidden’
What is multipolarity?
The concentration of power with 3+ poles, often competing with one another
Give 3 argument and counterargument for the stability of a multipolar system
- Variety V lack of cohesion
- Classical Realist V Neo-Realist
- Cooperation V constant competition
How does the variety of powers in a multipolar system create stability? Give counterargument.
States can choose which power to align with based on their ideologies which causes less conflict later on, similar to businesses in a market - the expansion of BRICS to BRICS+ (4 new anti-US dominance states) and more states wanting to join NATO (3 new states worried about Russia)
- This means that international cooperation is hamstrung by large alliances that disagree, as Dervis puts it “a loss of multilateralism” - the US and it’s allies supported the Syrian rebels whereas countries like Russia have supported the Assad regime
What is the classical V neo-realist debate about the stability of multipolarity?
Classical realists, E. H. Carr, argue that great powers are able to enhance their status via alliances and petty wars that in no way directly challenge other states - the ‘War on Terror’ to get rid of terroris threat and the G7 as a means of pushing US power
- Neo-realists, like Christensen and Snyder, argue that there is greater chance of “chain-ganging” (where states get pulled into conflict via alliance) and “buck-passing” (where states avoid confronting a growing threat, hoping others will deal with it) - Trump pulling out of Paris “The United States will not sabotage its own industries while China pollutes with impunity.”
How does cooperation in a multipolar system create stability? Give a counterargument.
As there are multiple powers who each provide something different, they are encouraged to trade with one another, creating complex interdependence - in 2022, China supplies the US with 17% of their imports, in return, the US exported $151bn in machinery, chemicals, etc.
- This also means that there is more competition as each aims to gain power over the others, like an expanded arms race - 2024 saw a global military expenditure of $2.4tn, 3x that of 2001; Verisk estimates that conflict zones have grown by 67% since 2021 alone
Name the types of state
- Democratic
- Semi-democratic
- Non-democratic
- Autocratic
- Failed
- Rogue
What are the characteristics of a democratic state?
Have elections that:
- Are free and fair
- Count each person’s vote the same
- Have a range of candidates/parties
They often have:
- Rule of law
- Various rights
Give an example of a democracy
The UK has been described as the ‘Cradle of Democracy’ as rule of law was established here with Magna Carta. Representation began in the 12th century with the creation of the English Parliament, but universal suffrage was not established till 1928. Finally, through things like the HRA and the Equality Act, citizens enjoy various freedoms.
Give three positive consequences of democracy on global order
- Less conflict prone: Democratic Peace Thesis; no conflict between two democracies, 45 currently in ME/SubAfrica
- Greater cooperation: Kant; support of IGOs (like the ICJ) and international law
- Protection of human rights and freedoms: ECHR, HRA, Equality Act, European Court of Human Rights
Give three negative consequences of democracy on global order
- Difficulty solving long-term problems: lack of electoral benefit, effect on climate change policy (1.5C rise in 2024) (Trump leaves Paris)
- Populism: prioritise nationalism (turning in), rise of Orban, Farage (14.3% of votes), Trump
- Interventionism: prone to liberal interventionism to ‘ensure future peace’, the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and failed attempts to spread democracy
What is a semi-democracy?
A state that fulfills some of the criteria for a democracy but not all; such as an non-independent judiciary or tampering in elections.
Outline an example of a semi-democracy.
Russia has had elections since the end of the USSR, with regular elections of the President and the Duma (Parliament). However, Putin has circumvented two-term limit laws and won elections that were wildly unexpected; he has also been accused of press censorship, repression of protest, and political asassination, such as Yushenkov, leader of the anti-Kremlin Liberal Russia Party.
What is a non-democracy?
A state without free and fair elections for a variety of parties or candidates. Most countries pay a lip-service to demoacracy but only half actually are.
Give an example of a non-democracy.
China has regular elections to its National People’s Congress; however, any party or pressure group other than the 8 communist parties is banned. There is also no freedom of speech in China, such as taboos around discussing the Tianamen Square Massacre of 1989.
What is an autocracy?
A state ruled by a single person or body; used to be more monarchies but recently it is the leaders of political parties or movements that have risen to power via democracy (Hitler) or have taken violent control (Hussein).
Give an example of an autocracy.
Syria operates with the Assad family controlling the Ba’ath party, having been in power since Hafez took control in 1970, there is srict control of press and Human Rights Watch said they have one of the worst records in history.
Give three postive effects of autocracies on the global order
- Long-term problems: autocrats lack the need for immediate public benefit that inhibits democracies from dealing with climate change - China ratified Paris, US has left twice
- Investment: autocracies will often invest in other states to create alliances and ensure their own stability - China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi foreign direct-investment has averaged $1.3bn since 2005
- Stabilisers: autocracies often control the surrounding region to ensure their own security, this can create peace; the fall of Hussein’s regime led to chaos in Iraq, deepening the civil war between Sunni and Shi’ite factions
Give three negative effects of autocracies on global order
- Unpredictable: less scrutiny on decisions (downside of gridlock), North Korea has constantly shifted between diplomacy (Trump) and more nuclear testing (2006)
- More prone to violence: Democratic Peace thesis, currently 45 wars in SubAfrica/ME
- Harm to rights and freedoms: need to restrict protest and speech to limit scrutiny; Human Rights Watch said Syria “one of worst human rights record”, 56,000 “arbitrarily or indefinitely detained (Amnesty)
What is a failed state?
- Loss of control of territory and legitimate use of force
- A government that lacks legitimacy
- Inability to provide basic services
- Inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community
Outline an example of a failed state
Somalia has topped the Fund for Peace Index as the most fragile state since 2008. Warlords have seized control of different areas in the Civil War starting after the fall of the Barre regime in 1991, Children receive 3 years of education on average, life expectancy is 35 (20 years less than West) and received $2bn in aid in 2018.
Give three positive effects of failed states for the global order
- Inspiring cooperation: can provide a way for competing nations to work together; unanimous vote for UNSC Resolution 1816 combatting Somali piracy
- Weakening of hostile regimes: failed states can inhibit the strength of harmful leaders; Libya remains unstable but Gaddafi’s regime persecuted many minorities and paralysing Berber activists like Mahrooq
- Catalyst for reform opportunities: can provide the opportunity to see what systems and aids work; Afghanistan nation-building fails, Libya is able to recover and get first African female president
Give three negatives of failed states for the global order.
- Aid expense: inhibits ability to deal with other problems; Somalia received $2bn in 2018 alone, compared to climate funds like Adaptation of $100bn
- Lack of trade: Congo has 51% of known reserves of Cobalt, 738,000 displaced
- Safe havens for terrorism: low levels of regulation; Boko Haram in Nigeria and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan
What is a rogue state?
A pariah in the international community, that flouts international agreements and shuns membership to IGOs.
Outline an example of a rogue state.
North Korea is tightly controlled by the Stalinist Workers’ Party and the Kim’s are venerated as Gods. They are wildly suspicious of other states (building up their nuclear deterrent since 2006) (specifically South Korea and the US) and engaging in self isolation and self-sufficiency (Juche)
Give three positive effects of rogue states for the global order
- Rallying cry: inspires cooperation between other states; Georgia wants to join NATO cause of Russia, greater relations between US and South Korea ($37bn in 2022)
- Testing the system: strengthening of Global anti-money laundering initiatives cause of Korea, EU council creates new sanction system for Russia in 2022
- Driving innovation: existence of threat pushes advancements in defence and cybersecurity; Trump’s Iron Dome was inspired by rogue actors like Hamas and Hezbollah, North Korean hackers (Lazarus Group) holding hostage
Give three negative effects of rogue states for the global order
- Unpredictable: lack of consistent power creates instability; Hamas missiles
- Prone to violence: Democratic peace thesis; Russia in Ukraine and Georgia
- Fostering terrorism: Discontent with the international system encourages terrorism; Hamas, the Wagner Group, ISIS-L in Libya
