POPULATION IMPACT OF WAR Flashcards
NUMBER OF ARMED CONFLICTS AT CURRENT TIMES? HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE AFFECTED?
AT HISTORICAL PEAK
12% OF THE WORLD POPULATION, I.E. CCA 1 BILLION PEOPLE, LIVE IN ACTIVE CONFLICT AREAS
AVERAGE CIVIL CONFLICT LASTS ABOUT:
7 YEARS
DO SHORT RUN OR LONG RUN CONSEQUENCES OF CONFLICT ATTRACT MORE PUBLIC ATTENTION?
SHORT RUN, IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES
Short run, immediate consequences of conflicts much more visible, attract more public attention. Casualties, displacements, destruction of infrastructure and property…
LONG RUN CONSEQUENCES OF ARMED CONFLICTS
- Indirect and longer-term negative impacts on social well-being, physical and psychological health, education, economic activity, social cohesion and trust…
- MOSTLY DON’T REACH THE ATTENTION OF THE PUBLIC BUT ARE USUALLY MUCH MORE IMPORTANT AND SUBSTANTIAL THAN SHORT TERM CONSEQUENCES
- LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES ARE ‘THE TIP OF THE ICE BERG OF THE TRUE HUMAN COSTS’
BATTLE RELATED DEATHS IN THE LAST 10 YEARS:
- ON THE RISE, MUCH HIGHER THAN IN THE FIRST DECADE OF 21ST CENTURY
- MOSTLY FROM MIDDLE EAST REGION
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ARMED CONFLICTS
- MACRO LEVEL IMPACT
- ARMED CONFLICTS REVRESE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
During a war, a society diverts some of its resources from productive activities to destruction. For an average developing country, military spending increases from 2.8% to 5%. This is money that could have been spent on productive activities. Instead, it is spent on destroying the productive.
Destruction of infrastructure
Flight and destruction of physical capital
The structure of the economy changes. Manufacturing and service sectors get disrupted, leaving behind natural resource dependent industries (those industries are ‘forced’ to stay, but are much less profitable). Agricultural production is hit, crop and livestock portfolios shift towards low risk, low return compositions. (ANY BUSINESS THAT IS ABLE TO LEAVE THE CONFLICT AREA, LEAVES)
Economic policies and institutions deteriorate.
- Destruction of community ties
- Destruction of rule of law
- Heightened opportunism and uncertainty
During a civil war, a country loses, on average, around 2.2 percentage points off its normal annual growth rate (Collier, 1999).
After a typical civil war of seven years duration, incomes would be around 15 percent lower than had the war not happened, implying an approximately 30 percent increase in the incidence of absolute poverty.
The cumulative loss of income during a typical civil war would be equal to around 60 percent of a year’s GDP.
- DESTRUCTION OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND LIFE CHANCES
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SYRIAN CIVIL WAR
“even if the conflict ceased now and GDP grew at an average rate of five per cent each year, it is estimated that it would take the Syrian economy 30 years to return to the economic level of 2010”
CHANGE IN COUNTRY’S MILITARY SPENDING DURING CONFLICT
For an average developing country, military spending increases from 2.8% to 5%
CHANGES IN COUNTRY INCOME AND POVERTY DURING A CONFLICT
During a civil war, a country loses, on average, around 2.2 percentage points off its normal annual growth rate (Collier, 1999).
After a typical civil war of seven years duration, incomes would be around 15 percent lower than had the war not happened, implying an approximately 30 percent increase in the incidence of absolute poverty.
The cumulative loss of income during a typical civil war would be equal to around 60 percent of a year’s GDP.
DESTRUCTION OF HUMAN CAPITAL DURING ARMED CONFLICTS (also can be considered an economic aspect)
Armed conflicts hurt ”life chances”
Food availability
Health
Education (leads to much poorer performance on standardised tests)
Armed conflicts hurt educational attainment and achievement through:
- destruction of infrastructure
- disruptions in daily life
- economic, physical, and psychological damage (less teaching conducted)
- loss of personnel
Career opportunities
Wealth
THE POLITICAL IMPACTS OF ARMED CONFLICTS
Wars impact political attitudes, behaviour and institutions.
Exposure to armed violence has been found to result in high levels of psychological distress which feeds perception of threat resulting in support for exclusionary/hawkish policies.
Some studies report higher political engagement, mobilization and social participation in exposed individuals, but the nature of that engagement might be “dark”. There is some indication that war violence especially enhances in-group or “parochial” norms and preferences, a finding that suggests that the rising social cohesion need not promote broader peace.
- EVEN THOUGH THERE MIGHT BE MORE POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT, THAT ENGAGEMENT OFTEN DOESN’T ALIGN WITH PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF CONFLICT
THE SOCIAL IMPACTS OF ARMED CONFLICTS
Wars impact how we regard and treat each other.
Exposure to armed violence has been found to undermine trust within localities, to decrease the willingness to engage in impersonal exchange and to reinforce reliance on kinship groups.
- CONFLICTS POLARISE GROUPS, STRENGTHEN INGROUP TIES, AND LEAD TO MORE DISCRIMINATION BETWEEN GROUPS (GROUPS DEFINED IN RELATION TO THE CONFLICT)
THE PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS OF ARMED CONFLICTS
Negative effects on nearly all aspects of physical health ranging from stunted growth in children to resurgence of contagious diseases to domestic violence.
Exposure to armed violence has been found to lead to domestic violence (being exposed to armed violence increases one’s chances of becoming violent)
parent to child
male to female IPV (INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE)
Very substantial effects:
Survey study in the Occupied Palestinian Territory
Respondents whose husbands were directly exposed to political violence had 47% higher odds of reporting psychological violence, 89% for physical violence, and 123% for sexual violence compared with those whose husbands were not personally exposed to political violence
- AVAILABILITY OF SPECIALISTS AND PRACTITIONERS DECREASES THE MORE SEVERE A CONFLICT IS (THE MORE VICTIMS THERE ARE): LACK OF HEALTHCARE PERSONNEL (ALSO APPLIES TO DENTISTS, NURSES AND MIDWIVES)
The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental health problems is substantial among both military veterans and non-combatant civilians who have been exposed to armed combat.
Increased occurrence of mental health problems extends to veterans’ spouses and children
Elevated levels of aggressive behaviour and violence in refugee communities and post-war societies may be explained by trauma-related symptoms and appetitive aggression, both potential consequences of war-related trauma exposure
EXPOVIBE
Exposure to Political Violence and Individual Behaviour
SURVEY DETAILS
Between 1984 and 2014 Turkey called up an estimated 15 million draft soldiers, with approximately six million sent to fight in the armed struggle with the Kurdish insurgency group the PKK.
Two large-n survey studies conducted in Turkey in 2019 to analyze the effects of that exposure
EXPOVIBE (Exposure to Political Violence and Individual Behaviour) survey findings - Are husbands who got exposed to armed violence during their military service more likely to abuse their wives?
- POSSIBILITY OF PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ABUSE INCERASES WITH THE INCREASED EXPOSURE TO VIOLENCE AND COFLINCT
A man who gets exposed to high levels of political violence becomes 60% to 80% more likely to resort to physical and psychological violence against his wife!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why is this happening? What is the mechanism?
the transmission of violence from one social context to another via the devaluation of nonviolent norms, and the normalization of violence in everyday life.
Exposed men exhibit more aggression, they are more likely to resort to violence to solve everyday problems.
‘VIOLENCE SPILLOVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!’
