pop change

Question 1

niger birth rate

Answer 1

46.86 per 1000 2021

Question 2

niger death rate

Answer 2

8.141 per 1000 2021

Question 3

growth rates projected 2020-2050 UN 2019

Answer 3

o Growth rates projected 2020-2050 by UN in 2019
 Eastern Europe experiences the most significant population decline, largely due to emigration, with Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Latvia facing over 20% reductions by 2050.
 Japan’s anticipated 16.3% population decrease by 2050 highlights a global trend, with low fertility rates and aging populations contributing significantly.
 Efforts to address population decline focus on boosting birth rates and attracting emigrants back, as seen in countries like Portugal and Hungary

Question 4

X countries already declining pop

Answer 4

27

Question 5

how many conutnires delcin ing pop 2050

Answer 5

55

Question 6

replacement rate

Answer 6

2.1

Question 7

global FR

Answer 7

2.3

Question 8

X of countires below replacemtn level - professor harper bbc articles 2 wees ago

Answer 8

2/3rds

Question 9

uk FR

Answer 9

1.49

Question 10

child marriage

Answer 10

sub sahran africa 40% girls married before 18
13% before 15
legal miminum age 16-18, 15 with parentla consent

Question 11

one child policy

Answer 11

o E.g. One Child Policy – China
 Now chinese parents choose to have one child as the social norm – even after the policy ended in 2015
 2016 onwards- encouraged to have 2 kids, but after lsight initial increase,e it has decreased again- suggesting feritltiy rate will remain low in China
 Why?
* Young people faced with high house prices, lbaour market pressure, expense of bring up and ecuating children
 With an ageing popilation – may have to consider intorudicng pro-natal polcies in the future

Question 12

Inida 2 child poilcy

Answer 12

 E.g. some Indian states have adopted a 2 child policy by introcuing penalties and disincentives for families wih more than 2 children
 Average Indian fertility rates have fallen from 3.2 to 2.2 in the last 20 years
 In 23 indina states- fertility rate I lower than rpelacemnt rate
 Kerla in south india – female secondary education sinc ethe 1980s- lowest fertility rate of 1.2

Question 13

DTM

Answer 13

1929 Warren Thompson

Question 14

what stage is the uk in

Answer 14

5

Question 15

what stage is niger in

Answer 15

2

Question 16

what stage is canda in

Answer 16

4

Question 17

Niger example

Answer 17

• Example Niger
  o Physical setting
   Sahelian naiosn with very arid, subtropical desert climate
   Terrain is desert plains and sand dunes
   The south has a tropical climate neasr the edge of the Niger River bain
   Non desert areas in the south and west threatened by drought and desertification
   Recurring droughts are a hazards – more due to CC
  o Human setting
   Sparsely populated, especially in the north
   Higher concentration in band of towns and cities in the south along the Niger basin
   Economy reliant on primary sector- agriculture and mining
   Most live in rural area and are subsistence farmers or nomadic pastoral hereders
   Rich in uranium desports and has developed oil production since 2010
   98% of the ocuntry are muslim, coming from a number of tribal groups
   Dorughts, failed crops, insect plague and internal conflict and rapid pop growth have eld to food shortages , high foo dprices and hunger for many
  o DTM
   High birth rates due to religious and cultural beliefs
   Low and falling death rates put Niger in Stage 2 of th DTM, but DR much lower than excepted for this stage
   Partly due to young population and the government has made great strides to reduce child mortality by reducing hunger and malunriton and improving healthcare
   Supported by 118 NGOs , including Save the Chilren and Water aid

Question 18

Canada example

Answer 18

• Example – Canada
  o Physical enviro
   Wide range of climates- arctic, tempratre contientnal and tempratre maritime
   West of Canda is mountainous and the southern central area features rolling fertile plains
   North is rugged and mountainous wilderness of taiga and tundra
   Rich in mineral resources
  o Human setting
   Large country with a relatively small population of around 37 million people
   National scale – sparsley population but highly urbanised with high density in large cites in south and east, brodeirng the USA
   Economy based on teriarty sector- financial services and manufacturing, though it also has thriving mining and oil industries
   A multicultural society, mostly welcoming to immigrnats and tolerant of different culture, languages and traditions
  o DTM?
   Low BR and low DR with low natural increase
   Stage 4
   Canda has not progressed into stage 5, although slight decrese in Bra nd increase in DR have reduced natrula increase in recent years
• Typical of an ageing population
   However, Canda encourages controlled migration in order to keep a balanced age structure to avoid this problem – which is encourated by some other developed countries
   Has lots of space and irch in reousrce- can accommodate population increase well

Question 19

Uk dependancy ratio

Answer 19

56.75 2019

Question 20

Sub sharan education

Answer 20

o Example – Sub-Saharan Arica - primary education completion rates are 63 per cent for females and 71 per cent for males. Unfortunately, across SSA, enrolment drops by almost 50 per cent for secondary school, where only 34 per cent of girls and 42 per cent of boys are enrolled
o If countries in SSA hope to achieve a DD, they will have to invest in girls’ education to improve these rates.

Question 21

sOUTH Korea

Answer 21

Example of using the DD- South Korea
- In 1950, 42% of pop under 15 and TFR was 5.4
- Designed a population policy, investing in health centres and access to family planning – TFR rate when down (so less young dependants)- 2.9 in 1975
- Also developed an education strategy to focus on skills needed for economic developed – went from 54% attending school to 97% in 1990
- SK government took steps to boost investment – nromalised relations with Japan – allow the eoncomy to reieves influxes of investment that strengthen agriculture and fishing and also new shipping and manufacturing indystries
- Also employed large numbers inc pnstruction of infrastrcutre- damsn and roads – improved potneial for investment whilst also stimulating our internal economy
- Increased female labour force and encouraged works to save and invest
Success?
- Resulted in consistent, accelerated economic growth rates – 6.7 % per year 1960-1990 – increased GDP per capita in Korea from $100 in 1960 to $30 000 today – improved living standards
Now?
- FR below replacement rate as early as 2005 – 1.2
- Means ageing population and future heavy dependacy ratio

Question 22

SUb shara DD

Answer 22

Wasting a DD- Sub Sahara
- Population expected to double by 2050
- 40% of pop is currently under 15
- Fertility rates are high
o On average women have 5.1 children
o Progress- Rwanda – had a TFR of 7.54 in 1989 but is 2022- 3.8
 Investments in family planning and child survival
 Child morality cut in half in a decade
 But 2030 , Rwanda should have achieved demographic conditions necessary for accelerated growth – DD
o Others not successful
 Burundi’s rate has remained high (7.54 1989, 4.97 – 2024)
o Divergence in fertility rate sbwteen coutnies was followed by a similar divergence in ecoomci growth
o Both countries had similar GDP before , but now Rwanda;s figure is much bigger (940 dollars) of Burundis ($708) – even after economic collapse frollwing the rwandan genocide of the mdi 90s
 Lowering fertility rates can have dramatic economic benefits
o High fertility rates – increase global carbon emission and limist avaibiltiy of resources – lowering rates will prevtn environmental degation and curbing the potential conflict over resource scarcity
- Maternal deaths are high - need to reduce mothers deaths
- Unfortunately for SSA, it is predicted that “current investments in family planning must increase by three to five times their current levels to meet women’s needs for family planning, to stabilize births by 2030, and to establish the conditions to capitalize on the demographic dividend.”

Question 23

refugee convention

Answer 23

1951

Question 24

how many int migrants in 2019

Answer 24

272 million - 3.5% of pop

Question 25

un int migrantr eport 2019

Answer 25

• The UN International Migration Report for 2019 identified a number of key findings including:
  o ● two-thirds of all international migrants were living in just 20 countries
  o ● one-third of all international migrants originated from only ten countries (Table 10.11 shows the top five)
  o ● 74 per cent of all international migrants were of working age (20–64 years old)
  o ● forced migration across borders has risen significantly in the last 10 years
  o ● women and girls comprise around 48 per cent of all international migrants
  o ● few governments are seeking to lower the number of immigrants providing they arrive through legal channels. Promoting orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration is a priority for most governments.

Question 26

european migrant crisis

Answer 26

2015-2016

Question 27

harris todaro model

Answer 27

1970

Question 28

Ravenstein laws of migratiom

Answer 28

1. Most migration is over short distances
2. Migration occurs in steps
3. Long-range migrants usually move to urban areas
4. Each migration produces a movement in the opposite direction
5. Rural dwellers are more migratory than urban dwellers
6. Within their own country females are more migratory than males, but males are more migratory over long distances
7. Most migrants are adults, not families
8. Large towns grow more by migration than by natural increase
9. Migration Increases as Transport Improves and Economic Opportunity Increases
10. Migration Is Mostly from Rural Areas to Urban Areas
11. People Migrate for Economic Reasons

Question 29

austin, texas

Answer 29

The state capital and home of the University of Texas, with a burgeoning tech sector, Austin was for a long time a mid-sized US urban area, but in recent decades, it has exploded in growth, with no end in sight. It is now the 11th most populous city and 28th largest metro area; in 2010 it was the 37th largest metro area.
Here are some ways Austin fits Ravenstein’s laws:
- Austin adds 56,340 people every year, of which 33,700 are from the US and mostly from Texas, 6,660 are from outside the US, and the rest are via natural increase (births minus deaths). These numbers support laws (1) and (8).
- From 2015 to 2019, Austin received 120,625 migrants and had a counter-flow of 93,665 out-migrants (4).
- While exact data are lacking, economic reasons figure at the top of the reasons why so many are moving to Austin. Texas has the US’s largest GDP and Austin’s economy is booming; a lower cost of living relative to the number one outside state migrants come from, California; real estate is less expensive than in other states; taxes are lower. These suggest a confirmation of (11) and, partially, (9).
-

Question 30

UK health

Answer 30

o In 2019, a Health Foundation statement concluded that evidence showed that immigration made a positive contribution to the UK health service
 Data suggest migrants only create a low demand on health service (tend to be young and healthier and due to lack of knowledge of accessing it, language barrier)
 As taxpayers, immigrants contribute to the cost of public services
 Migrants are an essential part of the healthcare workforce in the UK
* 13% of NHS staff are non British
* 28% of doctors working in the NHS trained in other countries
* Considerable staffs shortage predicted in coming years – likely the UK will be continually dependent on recruiting both healthcare and social care staff from overseas to fill these shortages- for example – thought that the NHS will need to recruit 5,000 international nurses each year until 2023-24

Question 31

migration examples

Answer 31

EXAMPLE OF MIGRATION
- Quatar to the UAE
o 90% of UAE workforce is migrant
- New Delhi internalmigration
o Pop has growin – nayure increase and rural urba migration
o FRI – coca cola and Microsoft
o However, rual mirgnats often edn up in slums at the city edge
- Mexico to the USA
o Began 30 years ago when southern states undergin period of rapid eocnomcic growth- e.g. Texas and Claifornia
 Miexcans worke idn new factories or as clearns or farm labours
 Americans initlaly happy for mirgnats to have these poorly paid jobs
 It was asummed many Mexicans would return to Mexico after a few years but no
 Late 1970-1980 recession
* Unemployment increase in southern states – more resent to imgrants and the jobs they took
* Control of immigrnaito tightedne-d more illegal immigration
* 1990- 1 million illegal cases that were deported
* By early 1990s- over 12 million living in the USA, about 10% illegal imkgrnats
* 1994- calfornia -most voted to withdraw welfare service sform illegal imkgrnats – save stat emoeny
o NOW?
- Australia ?
- UK
o – 2022- net migration 745 000. 2023- over 670 000
 1995 -3% of the public thought migration was a problem
 2015- 56%
 Why?
* 1997- Tony Blair elected and opened borders
o More people came under UK under Blair than between 1066 and 1950
o 11 years under Blair than 9 centuries
o British people have voted lower immigration over and over again – but it has continued
o Cannot credibly assimilate that many people
o Allows politicians to pretend they are boosting economic growth
o Not all immigrants the same
 10x polish people than Albanians
 Though number of Albanians in prison double polish
 150 000 HK – no HK criminals
 200 000 Ukraine’s- not criminals
o 8 million a day on hotels for illegal immigrants
o Need immigrants to sustain economy?