global pop futures Flashcards
X global loss of ozone may lead to a X% increase in the incidence of skin cancers among fair-skinned people
o 10% global loss of ozone may lead to a 26% increase in the incidence of skin cancers among fair-skinned people
Non-malignant - Xth most commonly occuing cancer globally – Xmillion diagnosis in 2020
5th most commonly occuing cancer globally – 1.2 million diagnosis in 2020
AUS
o Australia
at least 2 in 3 Australians will be diagnosed with skin cancer in their lifetime
2000 Australian die from skin cancer each year
80% of a years diagnosis of cancer sis skin cancer – 11% malignant melanoses
* Melanomas contribute to 3% of all deaths from cancer
Treating all skin cancer cost the Australian health system around A U$900 million in 2017
Fair skinned, low latitude, high levels of UV radiation, cultural emphasis on outdoor activities
SLIP SLAP SLOP- Australia campaign to wear sunscreen
o A sustained X per cent depletion of the ozone layer is expected to result in nearly X million new cases of cataracts globally each year
o A sustained 10 per cent depletion of the ozone layer is expected to result in nearly 2 million new cases of cataracts globally each year
heat waves
During august 2003 – France and space, unprecendted hig temperature last for 3 weeks – 15 000 deaths . In the whole of europe – 70 000 deaths
2019 – UK – 900 deaths in summer heatwaves .
. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by,
. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.5–5.0°C,
- Malaria and dengue
o Most important diseases in tropics and subtropics
o If the geographic range expands – those who suffer with it presnelty and have ineffective healrhcare – will suffer the most
o CC could expose an additional one billion epople to denuge transmission by the end of the century
o Malaria
Some new areas will be conducive to malria by 2050, others may become free of malaria
El Nino events have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, asia, and south America
- Lyme Disease
o Most common vector brone disease in temperature climate sof the nrothen hemispere0 USA and Europe
o Transmiisted by deer ticks
o It is thought to be associated with warmer an dhumid conditons
- West Nile Virus
- West Nile Virus
- West Nile Virus
o Emergent disease which can survive in more tmeprature regions
o Since 1997 it has spread widley an din 199 it reached NY , resulting in a dramatic outbreak – spread from Canda ro Venseuzla
- Zika virus
o Causes rahs, mild fever conjunitvisis and muscle pain
o Virus was isolate din 947 in Zika ofrest in Uganda
o Remianed mainly in Africa until 2014 when Children notified the WHO of the virus of Easter Island
o Spread to into south and central America the the cairbeean
o Peaked in 2016
o 2019- 87 countries with it
o Africa, Americas, south east asia, and western pacific
Crops grown in lower latitudes, such as maize, sunflower and soya beans, could become viable further north and at higher altitudes; yields could increase by as much as x per cent by the 2050s.
Crops grown in lower latitudes, such as maize, sunflower and soya beans, could become viable further north and at higher altitudes; yields could increase by as much as 30 per cent by the 2050s.
potentially large gains in agricultural land for regions such as Russia, owing to longer planting seasons and more favourable growing conditions, amounting to a x per cent increase over x million hectares by the 2080s.
potentially large gains in agricultural land for regions such as Russia, owing to longer planting seasons and more favourable growing conditions, amounting to a 64 per cent increase over 245 million hectares by the 2080s.
. As an example, it is thought that a X°C warming in the mid-latitudes could increase wheat production there by X per cent, whereas at low latitudes the same amount of warming may decrease yields by around the same amount
. As an example, it is thought that a 2°C warming in the mid-latitudes could increase wheat production there by 10 per cent, whereas at low latitudes the same amount of warming may decrease yields by around the same amount
- UN projection for global feriltiy
- UN projection for global feriltiy 1.9 by 2100
2017 Accurate?
- The 2050 forecast shows a 2.1 billion range between different sceneries
- Difference of 9.24 billion for 2100 forecast
- The extenrt of speads points to the opprnity for fertility reducation, but also to the threat of more unsustaibel growth
- 2100 lowest predicted is below current population – 7.28 billion
2019 accurate?
- 2019 report predicted 2100 pop would be 10.9 billion ,with a 95% chance of ebing between 9.4 and 12.70 billion
- Incdicates more cifnece that the medium variant is likely
o There are signs that fertility is declining
o But will low feriltiybe sustaibel in countries that already have low ferility levels
- In 2014 – the Wittgenstein Centre for DEMOGRAPHY OF IIASA produced a set of projections
o Different emthods and incopation level of education in a given population
o As a result ,projection were lower and claime dowlr dpopulationw oudl stablise before the end of the centre
the population will reach 8.3 billion by 2030, 9.2 billion by 2050 and peak at 9.4 billion in 2070 before falling back to 9 billion by 2100
UN projections for rapid population growth in Nigeria were overestimated because improvements in education there will reduce fertility (the UN have since revised their estimates)
educating girls is one of the most successful methods of reducing fertility in the long term – there is a strong negative correlation between female education and levels of fertility and child mortality
- Global life expectancy at brith will continue to rise –
- Global life expectancy at brith will continue to rise – reaching 77.1 in 2050
- 2019-2050, X countries are porkjected to decrease by 1 % of more due to sustained levels of low fetility and ins ome place due to high rate sof emigration
- 2019-2050, 55 countries are porkjected to decrease by 1 % of more due to sustained levels of low fetility and ins ome place due to high rate sof emigration
- Around x countries, including Japan and many others across Europe, have a falling proportion of working-age populations and increased ageing dependency, which will put pressure on social, welfare and pension systems and may impede future economic performance
- Around 30 countries, including Japan and many others across Europe, have a falling proportion of working-age populations and increased ageing dependency, which will put pressure on social, welfare and pension systems and may impede future economic performance
