OM CH3 Flashcards
Short range forecast
< 3 months
Long range forecast
> 3years
Qualitative forecasting methods
- Jury of executive opinion
- Delphi method
- Sales force composite
- Consumer market survey
Jury of executive opinion
A method of forecasting using a composite forecast prepared by a number of individual experts. The experts form their own opinions initially from the data given, and revise their opinions according to the others’ opinions. Finally, the individuals’ final opinions are combined.
Delphi method
The Delphi method is a forecasting process framework based on the results of several rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. Several rounds of questionnaires are sent out, and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round. The experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds. Since multiple rounds of questions are asked and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole, the Delphi method seeks to reach the correct response through consensus.
naive approach of forecasting
demand in current period is that of last period
Moving average method
average of 3 years for example
Weighted moving average method
like weighted average but recent years receive a higher weight
Exponential smoothing
uses the smoothing constant.
If it is 1 then the current period = demand of previous period
Linear regression
forecasting method with computer. Takes external factors into account., like managers of weather.
Error of forecast
Ft - At
MAD
Mean Absolute Deviation
MSE
Mean Squared Error
MAD^2
to enlarge the mistakes made
MAPE
Mean Absolute Percent Error
for comparing companies of different sizes
Tracking signal
when
- The forecast is too low because you are in a growing market
- If your seasonal index is wrong
Life cycle
introduction
growth
maturity
decline
Introduction phase
- product design is crucial
- regular changes in design
- variation is limited
- high attention to quality
- high production costs
Growth phase
- forecasts are crucial
- product- and process reliability are increased
- improvement in product compared to competitors
- enlarging capacity
Maturity
- standardization
- small adjustments
- optimal capacity
- increasing stability
- cutting costs
Decline
- small product variation
- minimalizing costs
- overcapacity in the industry
- items with a low margin are discarded
- decreasing capacity
classical products
early entry / late exit
innovators
early entry / early exit
followers
wait for a product to be successful and then sell it for a low price
Product development first 2 phases
idea, ability
What happens when plan is approved?
Product Development Team is formed
What does the Product Development Team do?
examine customer requirements
What team is formed after the Product Development Team?
Design & Engineering Team
supervised by Product Development Team
What does the Design & Engineering Team do?
Functional specifications
Product specifications
Design review
Functional specifications
What the product should be capable of.
Product specifications
How to implement the functional specifications.
Design review
internal test
Test Market
external test of the product
Quality Function Deployment
method to build a bridge between customer wishes and the attributes of the product
What step-by-step guide do consultants use for Quality Function Deployment?
They use the House of Quality
- Customer wishes (10h battery life)
- How to satisfy what the customer wants. (certain type of battery)
- Relationship matrix. The degree to which 2 satisfies 1.
- Comparison of product to product of competitors.
Robust design
variation can be handled (frozen pizza)
CAM
Computer Aided Manufacturing
CIM
Computer Integrated Manufacturing
combination of CAD and CAM
–> less mistakes, because only one software is used
Value Analysis
Testing products during the production, instead of afterwards (Elon Musk and Tesla on bamboo floor.)
Strategic alliance
contract is not mandatory
joint-venture
there is a contract.
