Monetary Policy And Financial Markets Flashcards
Monetary policu
Involves controlling macroecon by changes in monetary variables such as the money supply or interest rates
Usually first line of defence
Easy to implement- meeting mpc
mpc
Monetary policy comm of boe
Changed 1997- blair moved as believed policticians were using monetary policy for political gain
How does monetary policy work- interest rates
Aims to influence ad
Mpc sets interest rate that it pays commercial banks on their deposits held at bofe and rate it charges for short term loan to some conmercial banks or financial institutions
Sets bank rate
Bank rate
Sets benchmark for all other interest rates charged throughout banking system in uk
Chanes in interest rates influence ad via transmission mechanism of monetary policy
Time lags
May occur 6months-2y before full effect of monetary policy will have it simpact on whole econ
Interest rates for otheer banks/financial organisations
Depends on lenth of loan and level of risk
Variety of interest rates paid to savers depends of sums if money deposits and ease of access
Move in same direction as bank rate
Impact of interest rates changes on consumption
Increase interest rates, increase cost borrwing
Consumer borrowing to finance consumer spending on consumer durables- cars, furnaiture, falls
Demand personal loans falls- consumers likely to spend less on their credit cards esp with v high interest - atleast 20%
Encourages to save more- increased return
Discretionary income fall as money repayment on mortages increases
Additionally cost of mortgages increases, reduces demand for homes, house prices may fall or rise more slowly, consumer feel less wealthy
Mortgage equity withdrawal likely to fall- mew- consumers finance spending by increasing size of mortgage
Vakue of shares on stock market likely to fall when interest rates rises- less borrow less spend less rev more cost repay loans, less dividens, decrease demand, decrease price
Wealth effect
Decrease consumer conifdeence- about future earnings or job security so less likely to spend
Impact of increase interest rates on investment
Business investment in new capital fall as interests rates increase
As borrowing to fund capital expendaiture increases in cost
Business confidence in future demand falls, decreasing investment (in new plants, mahinery, computers, new buildings, infrastructure)
Impact of rise in interest rates- exports
Increase interest rates increase exchange rates, decrease demand exports
Foriegn take adv of high interest rates and deposit cash with uk banks- increase demand for sterling as hot money flows
Demand for imports inelastic, exports elastic
Impact of increasing interest rates on as
Long term increading interest ratess may damage the supply side of the economy by increasing cost of borrowing
Firms find more diff to invest in new capital and r&d- damage competitive adv over time
Economists argue that uncertainity caused by accelerating inflation even more damage ot supply side of econ in lr
Eval effectiveness of monetary policu
Main objective of mpc is to keep cpi inflation at 2% give or take 1%- aim to promote macroecon stability
If mpc failes to keep cpi inflation at 2% gov of boe must explain why and aim to do
But blunt insturment with cost push (more effective demand pull)
Not effective at raising ad when econ stuck in recession and confidence low- instead use qe
Recent examples of cost push inflation
Ukraine 2022- oiil and grain
Credit crunch- 5.2% yet boe not increase interest rates as did not push econ into even deeper neg output gap- make recession worse
Paradox of thrift
Save rather spend
Job security- as firms cut costs as decrease ad- cut loan spending
Made redundant- cant sepnd as cannot borrow
Wealth effect assests, stocks and porpoerty decrease value
Money supply
Total q of money circulating in the econ
Narrow money
Notes and coins in circulation plus balances in instant access bank accounts such as current accounts
M0
Broad money
Cash deposited in bank accounts and building society accounts to which savers donet have instant access
Money is held in accounts which notice is required to make withdrawal eg, savings account
M4
Expansionary monetary policy
When interest rates are low, borrowing should rise and money supply and ad too
Boosting econ growth
Contractionary monetary policy
Interest rates high, borrowing should fall, money supply and ad fall, decrease inflationary pressure
Monetary policy 1979-1992
Con tried control money supply itself by setting targets for monetary growth- stratgey v unreliable and often resulted in sharp swing in interest rates
1992 onwards monetary policy
Preferred startegy has been to use changes in repo/bank rate
Sets benchmark for short term interest rates throughout the econ
Since 1997 monetary poliuc
Monetary policu removed from control of poitics and set by mpc of boe
Exchange rate
Price of one currency in terms of another currency
May be fized or allowed to float
Floating exchange rate
Exchange rate depends on demand supply conditions
Pound since left erm
Fixed exchange rate
Eg erm
Hot money
Flows of cash for short term investment purposes
Can be invested in money markets around world for as little as 24h
appreciation of currency
High interest rates
Encourage hot money flows or short term flows from abroad into banking sector- take adv high interest rates
Increase demand currency, appreciation
depreciation of currency
Low interest rates or speculation of a fall in interest rates
Hot money to leave country in search of higher interest rates elsewhere
Decrease demand for th ecurrency- depreciation
Link between pound and trade
Spiced
Strong pound imports cheap exports dear
adv strong pound
Cheaper imports for consumers- less sterling used to pay for imports
Lower production costs- uk imports many basic commodities raw materials so decrease cost push inflationary pressures
Lower inflation decrease cost push- domestic suppliers face stiffer competition from cheap imports-less likely to increase prices
Disafv strong pound
Increased deficit on current account of boe- make exports more expensive and imports cheaper
Where demand elastic, likely to import more and export less
Decrease econ growth exprots fall, reduction ad and reduce econ growth rate- may reduce employment rate and living standards esp in regions where industries dependent on export makret- eg car manufacturing industry- storng exchang rrate caused closure of many uk industries in 80s and 90s especiallly textiles, clothing, semi conductor production
Negative impact on business confidence and capital investment- as investment dependent on strength fo demand- so less exports decrease willingness to invest
Adv weak pound
Increased demand for exports, decrese deficit on current account - if demand exports price elastic, eg high value added luxury goods such as land rovers and bmw minis
High cost of imports decrease demand where demand elastic- manufactured goods- decrease deficit bop
Exports injection circulr flow of income- provided net injectections greater than net withdrawls- positive multpplier effect- boost gdp and create more jobs- econ growth increase, increase tax rev, decrease welfare costs increaisng equity
Higher demand exports may boost business confidence, encourage net investment, further boost econ growth
Disadv weak pound
Cost push inflation likely to hit uk due to high mpm- raw material sand oil- creates greater uncertainity and undermine beneifts of export led growth
Increases cost of exports/manufacured goods
Money
A medium of exchange
An asset accepted in echange for goods and services rather than having to resort to barter
functions of money
Store of wealth
Unit of account/measure of value
Standard of deffered payment
Money- store of wealth
Cash convenient store of purchaisng power
Asset universally accepted means of payment for goods and services- medium of exchange
Unit of account/measure of value
Money provdies means of expressing value, allows people to compare relational values of g and s
Price signalling mechanism
Standard of deffered payment
In developed ecoomies goods frequently purchased on credit with amount repaid in futuyre
Allwos delay payment for goods or settling debates as can be reasonably confident about futrure alue and pruchasin power of money
Iiquity
Ddegree to which financial assets can be easily converted into money
Money suply equation
Money supply x velocity = price level x gdp= m=p
Demand for money dictated by
Income- higher level of income, grater demand for money in order to facilitate spending
Rate of interest- higher rate of interest, higher opp cost of holding money in cash fofrm or in current acount that does not pay interest
Money supplyu increases seen on diagram
Shift right
Decrease rate of interest
Demand for money increases on diagram
Upwards shfit or right shift of demand curve, interest rates likely to increase
Nominal interest rate
Interest rates not adjusted for inflation
Credit crunch
Reduced wilingness of financial institutions to lend to households, busienss and to one another
Real interest rates
Nominal rate of interest minus rate of inflation
Problem with barter
V inefficient and impractical require double incidence of wants
Inefficent- time and energy spend securing markets
Limit developmenyt o f specialisations, if tradin inefficient, division of labour, lagre scale production leading to econoies of scale
Asset
Something of value
May be savings deposit for idivid- gain interest
But or bank this would be a liability, bank has to pay interest on deposit and honour withdrawals from account
Liability
Legal debt, legal obligation to pay at some point future debt
If lends out cash deposuted with the bank in a 3rd party in return for interetspayments-0 creates asset0 interest earning use of funds
Liability for lender
Debt
Money owed and is a libaility
Net worth of a bank=
Assets - liabilities
Money markets
Primarilty used for trading of short dtaes financial assets eg cash, st loans, trade in shrt dated bonds about to mat7rue
Short dated bonds (treasury bills and commercial bills) considered to be highly liquid assets and can be easily traded for cash
Banks trade on money market and money lent for 24hr to 1yr
Lond intermank market
Important operation of uk monetary policu
Banks lending to each other
LIBOR
London interbank offered rate
Rate of interest charged when banks lend to each other on lim
Gov raise finance on money markets- trasurey bills sold to raise st finance for gov cash flow purposes
Capital markets
Used by plc and gov raise funds lt
Primary markets
New shares plc sold as a result of stock market flotations and noew corporate.gov bonds may be issued
Inititial selling of shares