Fiscal And Supply Side Policy Flashcards
A country’s banking system is an important part of the institutional structure of its economy because of its role
As a source of investment funds for business
The consequence of increasing the interest rate when the exchange rate is rising is likely to be an increase in
A level of unemploymentr
A large increase in borrowing by consumers is most likely to lead to a
Rise in imports into uk
The monetary policy comm (mpc) of the boe meets each month to decide on the rate of interest that is most likely to help it achieve the gov inflation target
Mpc is most likely to increase interest rates if
The rate of growth of gdp is above the long term trend rate of growth
Expansionary monetary policy is most likely tgo
Shift ad curve to right
Monetary policy
Involves controlling the macroecon through changes in monetary vairables such as the money supply or interest rates
Changes in short term interest rates, principle tool of monetary policy in recent years
Ususally first line of defence
Easy to implement- meeting of mpc
Mpc
Monetary policy comm- bofe
Central ank not gov
Changed 19970- balir moved out as believed politicians were using monetary policy for political gain
How does monetary policy work
Aim to influence ad
Mpc sets interest ratee that it pays commercial banks on their deposits held at bofe
And rate it chanegs for short term lends to those same commercial banks and financial institutions
Bank rate
Bank rate sets the benchmark/base ratee for all other interest rates charged throughout banks system in uk
Changes interest rates inflluence ad via transmission mechanism of monetary policy
Time lags
May occur monetary policy- up to 2y before full effect of monetary policy will have its impact on whole economy
Aim gradually encourage consuemrs and busineses to adjust spending to keep inflationary prssure under control so econ can continnue to grow steadiily
Making forcasts of inflation and decide interest rate changes appropriate
But reaction of consumers and businesses to interest rates uncertain as are potential time lags 6
Interest rates for other banks/financial organisation
Depend on legth of loan and level of risk
Variety of interest rates paid to savers depends on sums of money deposits and ease of access
Interest rates do tent to move in same direction0
Impacts of changing interest rates on ad- via transmission mechanism- consumption
Increase interest rates, increase cost borrowing- therefore consumers borrow less to finance consumer spending on consumer durables- cars
Demand personal loans decreases0- consumers spend less on credit cards- w v high interst- 200%^
Encouragge save more- increase return
Discretionary income decrease as mortgage repayment increases
Cost of mortage increase, demand houses decreases, house pirces fall, wealth efecte worson
Mortagage equity withdrawal- mew- decrease- consumers fund spending by increasing sixe of their mortageg
Value of shhares on stock market most liekly decrease whhen interest rates rise- feel less welathy, decrease spending
Decrease consumer confidence- about future earnings or job security- act based on this security
Impacts of changing in interest rates on ad- investment
Business investment in new caputal decrease as incrase interest rates
As borrowing fund capital expendaiture increase
Decrease business confidence in future demand, decrease investment0- in new plant, machinery, companies, new buildings, infrastructure
Impacts of changes in interest rates on ad- via transmission mechanism- exports
Increase interest rates, increase change rate, decrease demand exports
Foreigners take adv of high interest rates and deposit cash with uk banks- increase demand sterling, hot money flows- cash for short term investment purpose
Reverse-if interest rates decrease- hot money flows out of pound sterling, decrease demand, depreciation of currency, demand exports increase esp demand elastic0- increase ad
Lras impact o f changing interest rates via transmission mechanism
Increase interest rates may damage the supply side of the economy by increasing cost of borrowing
Firms more diff to invest in new capital and r&d
Damage competitivee adv longer term
Economists argue uncertainty caused by accelerating inflation is likely to be even more damge to supply side of ecoomy in lr
Evaluation of effectiveness of monetary policy
Main objective of mpc to keep cpi inflation in line with target rate of 2%- aim promote macroecon stability
If mpc faills to keeep cpi inflation w/in target- govenor of bofe must make open letter of explanation to chancellor
Sucessful in demand pull inflation decreasing in recent years0
But blunt instrument when deealing with cost push- 20066-2008- iinflation increase due to cost push factors- oil and comodity prices (raw materials, wheat, copper)) increase
Less effective increase ad when stuck in recession and confidence - paradox of thrift
Could increase value of pound- decrease pirce imports
Examples of coost push inflation recent years
2011- 5.2%- commodity prices, weak pound, increase cost imports, gov increase vat to 200^%
Inflation peak 11.1^% oct 2022- high energy prices and wheat (r-u), weak pound- collapse confidence truss
Credit crunch- cost push 5.2%0- but bofe not increase interest rates so not push int o deeper recession
Paradox of thrift
Save rather spend
Job security- as firms cut costs as decrease ad- cut back spending
Made redundancies- cant spend more
Wealth efect- assets stocks and property decreae value prce
Fiscal policy
Use of taxation, gov spending and gov borrowing to achieve macroecon obejctives
Fiscal automatic stabilisers
Dont require any change in gov polciy
Therefore not considered expansionary or contractionary fiscal policy
Automatic stabilisers- output fall
Tax revenue automatically decrease
Incomes and revenuue decrease when ad fall
Lower income, lower tax rates
Gov spending increase automatically, increase welfare and unemployment beneffits
Automatic stabilisers- output increase
Tax revenue increase
Income tax and firms revnuue increase0 move higher tax bracket
Welfare fall
Blair gov- auutomatic stabilisers?
No resorted to active or expansionary fiscal policy to deal with credit crunch recession in 2009
Direct taxation
Largely taxes on income paid directly to gov by individual tax payer
Income households and coperations
Tax liability cannot be passed onto others q