Fiscal And Supply Side Policy Flashcards

1
Q

A country’s banking system is an important part of the institutional structure of its economy because of its role

A

As a source of investment funds for business

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2
Q

The consequence of increasing the interest rate when the exchange rate is rising is likely to be an increase in

A

A level of unemploymentr

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3
Q

A large increase in borrowing by consumers is most likely to lead to a

A

Rise in imports into uk

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4
Q

The monetary policy comm (mpc) of the boe meets each month to decide on the rate of interest that is most likely to help it achieve the gov inflation target
Mpc is most likely to increase interest rates if

A

The rate of growth of gdp is above the long term trend rate of growth

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5
Q

Expansionary monetary policy is most likely tgo

A

Shift ad curve to right

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6
Q

Monetary policy

A

Involves controlling the macroecon through changes in monetary vairables such as the money supply or interest rates
Changes in short term interest rates, principle tool of monetary policy in recent years
Ususally first line of defence
Easy to implement- meeting of mpc

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7
Q

Mpc

A

Monetary policy comm- bofe
Central ank not gov
Changed 19970- balir moved out as believed politicians were using monetary policy for political gain

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8
Q

How does monetary policy work

A

Aim to influence ad
Mpc sets interest ratee that it pays commercial banks on their deposits held at bofe
And rate it chanegs for short term lends to those same commercial banks and financial institutions

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9
Q

Bank rate

A

Bank rate sets the benchmark/base ratee for all other interest rates charged throughout banks system in uk
Changes interest rates inflluence ad via transmission mechanism of monetary policy

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10
Q

Time lags

A

May occur monetary policy- up to 2y before full effect of monetary policy will have its impact on whole economy
Aim gradually encourage consuemrs and busineses to adjust spending to keep inflationary prssure under control so econ can continnue to grow steadiily
Making forcasts of inflation and decide interest rate changes appropriate
But reaction of consumers and businesses to interest rates uncertain as are potential time lags 6

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11
Q

Interest rates for other banks/financial organisation

A

Depend on legth of loan and level of risk
Variety of interest rates paid to savers depends on sums of money deposits and ease of access
Interest rates do tent to move in same direction0

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12
Q

Impacts of changing interest rates on ad- via transmission mechanism- consumption

A

Increase interest rates, increase cost borrowing- therefore consumers borrow less to finance consumer spending on consumer durables- cars
Demand personal loans decreases0- consumers spend less on credit cards- w v high interst- 200%^
Encouragge save more- increase return
Discretionary income decrease as mortgage repayment increases
Cost of mortage increase, demand houses decreases, house pirces fall, wealth efecte worson
Mortagage equity withdrawal- mew- decrease- consumers fund spending by increasing sixe of their mortageg
Value of shhares on stock market most liekly decrease whhen interest rates rise- feel less welathy, decrease spending
Decrease consumer confidence- about future earnings or job security- act based on this security

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13
Q

Impacts of changing in interest rates on ad- investment

A

Business investment in new caputal decrease as incrase interest rates
As borrowing fund capital expendaiture increase
Decrease business confidence in future demand, decrease investment0- in new plant, machinery, companies, new buildings, infrastructure

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14
Q

Impacts of changes in interest rates on ad- via transmission mechanism- exports

A

Increase interest rates, increase change rate, decrease demand exports
Foreigners take adv of high interest rates and deposit cash with uk banks- increase demand sterling, hot money flows- cash for short term investment purpose
Reverse-if interest rates decrease- hot money flows out of pound sterling, decrease demand, depreciation of currency, demand exports increase esp demand elastic0- increase ad

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15
Q

Lras impact o f changing interest rates via transmission mechanism

A

Increase interest rates may damage the supply side of the economy by increasing cost of borrowing
Firms more diff to invest in new capital and r&d
Damage competitivee adv longer term
Economists argue uncertainty caused by accelerating inflation is likely to be even more damge to supply side of ecoomy in lr

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16
Q

Evaluation of effectiveness of monetary policy

A

Main objective of mpc to keep cpi inflation in line with target rate of 2%- aim promote macroecon stability
If mpc faills to keeep cpi inflation w/in target- govenor of bofe must make open letter of explanation to chancellor
Sucessful in demand pull inflation decreasing in recent years0
But blunt instrument when deealing with cost push- 20066-2008- iinflation increase due to cost push factors- oil and comodity prices (raw materials, wheat, copper)) increase
Less effective increase ad when stuck in recession and confidence - paradox of thrift
Could increase value of pound- decrease pirce imports

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17
Q

Examples of coost push inflation recent years

A

2011- 5.2%- commodity prices, weak pound, increase cost imports, gov increase vat to 200^%
Inflation peak 11.1^% oct 2022- high energy prices and wheat (r-u), weak pound- collapse confidence truss
Credit crunch- cost push 5.2%0- but bofe not increase interest rates so not push int o deeper recession

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18
Q

Paradox of thrift

A

Save rather spend
Job security- as firms cut costs as decrease ad- cut back spending
Made redundancies- cant spend more
Wealth efect- assets stocks and property decreae value prce

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19
Q

Fiscal policy

A

Use of taxation, gov spending and gov borrowing to achieve macroecon obejctives

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20
Q

Fiscal automatic stabilisers

A

Dont require any change in gov polciy
Therefore not considered expansionary or contractionary fiscal policy

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21
Q

Automatic stabilisers- output fall

A

Tax revenue automatically decrease
Incomes and revenuue decrease when ad fall
Lower income, lower tax rates
Gov spending increase automatically, increase welfare and unemployment beneffits

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22
Q

Automatic stabilisers- output increase

A

Tax revenue increase
Income tax and firms revnuue increase0 move higher tax bracket
Welfare fall

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23
Q

Blair gov- auutomatic stabilisers?

A

No resorted to active or expansionary fiscal policy to deal with credit crunch recession in 2009

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24
Q

Direct taxation

A

Largely taxes on income paid directly to gov by individual tax payer
Income households and coperations
Tax liability cannot be passed onto others q

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25
Direct tax rates
Personal tax allowance- 12.5k Income tax rates, 00%, 20%(above 12.5), 40% over 50k, 45% over 150k but loose tax allowance over 100k National houshold contributions on workers
26
Why may a gov wish to increase income tax
Increase rveenue to avoid borrowing when increase spending Decrease ad- contractionary fiscal policy- decrease disposable income- ad falls as consumer spending a componeent of ad If progressive- increase equality as redistribution of wealth
27
Indirect taxation
Largely on spending Vat 20%^ Excise duties- tobacco, alcohol, sugar, tax, fuel duties - demerit goods Depends on price leasticity and supply for good- firms may be able to shift burden of tax onto consumer Recent decades- shift away from using direct taxations as part of discretionary fiscal policy
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Adv indirect taxation
Influence spending pattern Correct externalities Incentive effect Flexibility
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Indirect tax- influence spenidng patterns
Indirect tax changes are arguably more effective in changing overall patterns of demand for particular g Change relative rpices and discourage consumption of demerit goods
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Indirect tax- correct externalities
Indirect taxes for negative externalities The polluter pays principel for internalising external cost of production and consumption
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Incentive effects- indirect tax
Indiect taxes have less impact upon individual work v leisure changes May increase indirect taxes rather than direct tax flexibility
32
Disadv indirect tax
Distribution effects- regressive effect of many indirect taxes to make disrtibution of income more unequal Inflationary pressures- increase can trigger cost push inflation Crime- create incentives to avoid indirect taxes- eg smuggling ciggarettes Stealth taxes- lack of announcement means people unaware of how much pay in indirect atxes- goes against ‘certainty principle’ of good tax system
33
Proportional tax
Everybody pays ssame % of their income Egg russia at 13%
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Progressiive taxation
More earnt, bigger ^% of income spent in tax Uk
35
Regressive taxation
Low income groups pay bigger proportion of incomee in tax Criticism of indirect tax- vat
36
Main objectives of uk tax system
Funds gov spendng- able to borrow moeny up to a certan extent but majority must come from taxation to avoid inflationary pressure Manage economy as a whole- macroecon performance- eg alter taxes and rates to influence econ growth , inflation, unemployment, bop Decrease certain tax- microecon supply side benefits such as more incentives Redistribution of iincome- fairness in society Correct market failure- micro econ improvement workings of market, indirect taxes on demerit goods fund to decrease negative externalities
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Horizontal equity
Where people or firms with same income and financial circumstances pay same amount of tax
38
Verticle equity
When amount that people pay is based on their ability to pay High income groups pay income more than low incomes
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Principles of taxation
Decide if tax is good or bad from economic pov Economical Equity Convevnience Certainty Efficiency, flexible- modern principels, ones above canons
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Economical taxation
Tax should be simple and easy to colect So revenue is maximised compared to coost of collection
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Equity taxation
Taxes should be fair and based on taxpayer ability to pay Justification for progressive nature of income tax Horiontal and verticle equity
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convenience of taxation
Payment method and timing should be convenient to the taxpayer
43
Certainty of taxation
Tax payers hsould understand how system works Cleaer, what, when and how to pay Taxes diff to evade
44
Efficient tax systeem
Meets its aims whilst minimising neagtive distortions Eg decrease individual incentives to work save and invest
45
Flexible tax system
Structure and rates of taxation must be capable of easy alteration in responsible to changing economic conditions
46
Hypothication of taxes
Taxes raised for specific purpose- revenue earmarked for particular use Large proportion of tax on cigarettes for smoking related disorders Reveal how much individuals are prepared to pay for partiuclar services- if still ocnusme Eg,. Tv licnce0- tax cover cost of bbc
47
Pigouvian taxes
Take money from those creating negative externalities Spend revenue on compensating those who suffer the spillover or r=negative consequencees Some argue fuel tax and improt tax used to subsidise investment in alternatives to fossil fuels
48
Benefit principel
Argument taxes should be linked to the benefits that taxpayer recive from teh tax
49
Gov spending categories
Current spenidng0 Capital spending Transfer payments
50
Current spending- gov spending
Wages public sector wrkers and consumables- medicine in hospital Less sensible to borrow for
51
Capital spending
Spending on infrastructure Growing economu by increasing productve capacity, supply side0 Building schools, hospitals More sensible to borrow for - long term benefits
52
Transfer payments0- gov spending
Transer of income from tax payers to those recieving beneifts/pensions One group to another
53
Budget deficit
Occur when gov spending exceeds gov rev from taxation and other sources of income- eg. Prescription charges Borrowing for just one yeaar
54
Budget surplus
Gov revenue exceeds gov spending
55
Balanced budget
Gov revenue equals gov spenidng Last seen in 2000-2001
56
How to fix budget deficit
Eliminate by cut back public spending or raise tax- long term implications Infrasturcture less- damage supply side Increase tax- decrease incentive work save and invest
57
If budget surplus- how to fix
Gov use exess rev or other expendaiture to repay preious borrowing Private sector debt repayment- psdr
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National debt
Accumulated borrowing How much state owes Peaks in wars and recessions
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Cyclical deficit
Gov in debt during recession
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Structural deficit
Gov in debt during growth phase Current spending
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Expansionary fiscal policy
Discretionary /active fiscal policy Deliberate chanegs in direct/indirect taxation and gov spenidng to influence ad Successful 1949-79
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How expansionary fiscal policu works
In recession gov boost public spendng/cut direct taxes to stimulate ad an set off positive multiplier
63
Cut income tax- expansionary fiscal policu
Give consumer more disposable income- increase demand for sonsumer g&s Retailer increase order from manufacturer- take on more workers, increase investment, more capital spending Demand new premises, factories and homes increase- increase consumption workers Net injection exceed net withdrwawal positive multiplier Increase sales- firms more profitable and falling unemployment means income increase Increased income from employyment and dividens from rising profit- increase ad until econ settle at higher equilibrium
64
Cut vat- expansionary fiscal policy
Hope decrease prices would encourage consuemrs to spend more on other g&s boosting ad Cut cost in production Eg. In 2009 lack of confidence- cut vat from 17.5 to 15%^ rather cut in direct tax
65
Increase gov spending on infrastructire projects- expansinary fiscal policu
If felt that tax saved or spent on imports Eg build road andd rail networks- Increase effieciency in transport Or build new schools and hospotal- expanding social capital Both create work for construction workers- increasing iincome Some extra income spent local g&s creating more jobs and income and profitcs- positive multiplier (iff injections exceed withdrawals) increase gdp
66
impact increase gov spending- expansionary fiscal policu
Increase in recession- counteract. Fall in public spening Important debt repayed when economy recover High levels of borrowing in econ danger- crowding out effect
67
Adv cut direct taxes
Increase spending as disposible income increases Increase mpc- positive multiplier if increase net injections Ad to right
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Disadv cut direct taxes
Lead to increase psnb Decrease rveneu Additional money saved or pay off existing debts- paradox of thrift Spent imports- not beneficial to local g&s- no increased incentive for firms to invest
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Pro cut indirect tax
Sras to right- cut cost of production Increas ad as less expensive- increase spending on other g&S
70
Disadv cut indirect taxes
May lead to increase psnb May increase demand demerit goods
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Increase gov spending adv
Road and rail network improved- transport mroe goods, decrease cost for firms Expand social capital- new schools and hospitals Creates jobs workers, boosts income, spent local g&s, creating more jobs, further boost income Lras to rght- long term benefit- supply side Multiplier and create more jobs
72
Increase gov spending- disadv
Increae psnb Time lags- planning permisson and get programmes started- eg in 2009 recession- labour bought forward infrastructure n pipeline Crowd out private sector spending and investment- damage competitiveness in industry longer term
73
Multiplier effect
Increase gdp+ multiplier x increas enet injections into circular flow of inocme 1=mps+mpt+mpm+mpc Multiplier = 1/1-mpc = 1/mps+mpm+mpt
74
Negatiev multiplier
Decrease gdp= increase net withdrawals x multipier
75
Effectiveness of expansionary fiscal policy depends on
Multiplier efect If have higher margiinal propensity to consumer- higher multiplier
76
History of fiscal policy- 1945 to 1970s
Discretionary expansionary fiscal policu Sucesfulin keeping unemployment low and stable economic growth 1970s oil price crisis
77
1979-1008 fiscal policy istory
Automiatic stabilisers not effective Stagflation- increase unemployment, increase accelerated cost push inflation End of 1970s- expansionary- artificiail econ growth when supply side econ (structural weakeness) unable to grwo fast enough for existing demand Poorly judged and misused00- accelerating inflation and increase inports ‘unecessary and decrease cmpetitiveness of british businesses
78
Recession 2000/01- fiscal policy history
Collapse dot com bubble and 911 Bush cut tax and increase spending-sucess Uk econ-avoid recessioin-supply side fiscal rather expansionary fsical Not structural deficit as capital not current spending
79
2009 credit crunch recession-fiscal policy
Lbaour use of expansionary Positive multiplier to lift out Infrastructure projects bought forward and bail out banks Psnb increase- current capital and tranfer (increase unemployment
80
2010-2016 fiscal
Osbiurne cut budget Austerity decrease gov spending Cut welfare 26k to 20k max Vat increase 17.5 to 20% Cut local authoritie -libraries Cut surestart scheme -intridyce more single motehrs into work with better childcare
81
Contractionary fiscal policy
Decrease ad ti decrease inflationary pressures Increase direct tax, decrease disposabke inckne- decrease ad when in positive output gap
82
Single currency
Used in european single currency Reduce domestic inflation Us firms took adv of ireland in single currency Increase fdi- foreign direct investment, increase net injection , positve multiplier, increase gdp, positive output gao, fuel inflationary demand ohkk Increase direct tax to redhce ad
83
Fiscal supply side policies
Aim to shift lras to right Increase efficiency and boost productive capacity Largely targeted private sector aiming to improve quality factor inputs- esp capital labour and entrepreneurship More poduction at lower price level
84
Main categories of supplyy side policies- not all fiscal
Competition policy Increase incentives to work save and invest Creation more flexible labour market Policies to encourage increased investment in infrastucture and r&d
85
Creation more flexible labour market- supply side
Eg deregulation- easier to hire and fire staff, increase spending on education and training - fiscal
86
Competition policy
Deregulation Decrease barriers to entry Make markets more competitive- eg privatisation
87
Increase incentives to work save and invest- supply side
Lower taxes- high income- save, low- no work Decrease welfare benefits- welfare refomr, decrease replacement ratio
88
Policies to encourage increased investiment in infrastructure and r&d- supply side
Subsidies (gov pays) or tax break for r&d- inflation reduction plan biden Provided directly- gov spending- fiscal Telecoms, ewater, electricity
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Fiscal supply sider policies
Decrease direct tax or increase tax allowances Changes to welfare benefit system Increased spendiing education and training Increased capital spending infrastructure Encourage investment in r&d
90
Decrease direct tax or increase tax allowances- fiscal supply side
Enhance incentive to work save and invest, lower unemployment trap Increase save- banks more cash to lend to businesses and entrepreneurs More busiinesses ratani more profit for reinvestment Shareholders retain more dividens, encourage individuals to invest in cpmanies by-purchasing stocks Important taxes arent reduced so much that gov no revenue to deliver effective public services
91
Changes to welfare benefit system- fiscal supply side
Increase incentives find work, decrease uneemployment trap Thatcher- increase benefits in line with inflation rather av earnings Blair- working tax credit meant workers recieived extra benefits Incapacity benefits decreaes for thhose deemed less sick and capable of carying on with soem sort of wokrk Current con gov- decrease working tax credit, raise national living wage to 10.42 pounds Taxpayer not subsidising underpaying employer Welfare benefits combined uc- no more than 20k per year
92
increase spending education and training- fiscal supply side
Increase occupational mobility Increase efficiency and effectiveness of labour in lr 0v expensive and time lag Current con gov- apprenticeship levy give large firms funds to train mroe employees
93
Encourage investment in r&d- fiscal upply side
Gov fund r&d in defence o rhealthcare Tax credit, tax allowances, gov grants (subsidies, influence q+q of r and d by prvate sector V expensive and diff enforce patents on international market
94
Effectiveness of supply side policies- free marketeer
No-classical Private sector more likely to deliver technical and allocative efficiency Concerned risk gov failure
95
Keynsian interventionist approach to supply side policies
Market failre concern Carefully target gov spending n merit goods and infrastructure, r&d, education and training Lead to crowding in effect- firms attracted to areas with good infrasturcture, good controls within r&d and more skilled workforce
96
Crowding out effect
Gov spending/borrowing displaces private sector spending/borrowing Increase gov borrowing, increase interest rates, increase cost of borrowing private esector jobs, deter from investing, decrease ad in short term Longer term- low levels of investment- less competitive industries, decrease domestic sales and exports, decrease econ growth lr
97
Keynsian argument of crowding out efefct
Sensiblee borrow in recession Injection compensating decrease private sector spending During recession, privaet sector, investment falls
98
Most economists wouuld argue that crowding out effect
Takes place during period of econmic growth Fund current expendaitrue- unsustainable in lr0- structural budget deficit But if on capital- kensians may argue- then justified as leads to stronger econ growth i n longer term
99
Neutral fiscal stance
Gov runs a balanced budgeht Designed to have a benigni mpact on level of econ activity
100
Demand management
Influence level of ad in econ Eg through contractionary fiscal poliu Create greater stability and smoothing out fluctuations in econ cycle Eg inject extra demand - cut in taxes or increase gov spending- when private sector demand too low- opp if demand pull inflation In past- gov attempt to fine tune econ by fiscal policy- most accept now not so precise
101
Psnb
Public sector net borrowing Diff between tax rev and gov expendatityre Borrow from banking sector or non bank private sector- insurance companies, pension fynds, hedge funds, individuals- sell bonds
102
Benefits of budget deficit
Finance capital spending- eg build new roads ro schoools- boot lr supply side of econ- brown justify post 2001 Keynsian- yes- boost ad to lift out of recesion
103
An increase in teh exchange rate is most likely to contribute to
A reduction of inflation
104
Public expenditure is gov spending on goods and services folllowing their consideration of
Collective needs
105
A structural budget deficit can occur when
The econ is at full emp
106
If there is a budget deficit that is addressed by the gov increasing tax the likely impact of this measure to rebalance the budget is
Reduced ad
107
Tax against multinational often avoid
But under oecd rule smust prove that pay at least 15% tax rate in each and every couontry they operate Estimates it would raise 220bn dollars globally per year
108
Inhibitiing factors to global consistent tax
Ie saudi arabia does not even have corpoerate tax system but instead has a tax system based on islamic principles