Modelling Climate Change - C

Question 1

Predictive models + rationale

Answer 1

most common models we use in climate science
complex math-based computer

rationale:
what happned in the past and currently will proabbly remain true for future events

Question 2

General Circulation Model

Answer 2

uses math models to simulate circulation of energy and mass within and between the atmosphere and ocean
includes air temp, vapor pressure, solar radiation, albedo, air pressure (fluxes)
simulate climatic conditions by unit of area

Question 3

Scale of GCMs

Answer 3

100km^2 grid size, very broad but varies by model
useful for global predictions but misses local trends

have been able to reduce scale of our GCMs over time with greater computing power and more data

Question 4

downscaling and regional climate modal

Answer 4

global-scale data can be converted to local-scale data (Regional climate model)
to apply to small-scale, local topography

not necessarily more accurate, just data is calibrated over smaller geographic area

Question 5

Uncertainty + sources

Answer 5

all predictive models include some uncertainty, insufficient

known or unknown (don’t even realize you’re missing data)

some sources do not stay the same over time periods in study, difficult to determine how important each is, not possible to know all variable

Question 6

Earth System Models

Answer 6

new class of GCMs that incorporate biogeochemical cycles like carbon and nitrogen cycles and life

Question 7

Integrated Assessment Models

Answer 7

integration of predictions based on human activities into GCMs

Question 8

Representative concentration pathway

Answer 8

type of global temperature projections published by IPCC (made using IAMs)
represent different projections based on future CO2 emissions

Question 9

RCP 1.9

Answer 9

limits global warming to below 1.5C

Question 10

RCP 2.6

Answer 10

1.5-2C by 2100
CO2 emissions goes to 0 by 2100

Question 11

RCP 4.5

Answer 11

2.5-3C at 2100

CO2 emissions peak in 2045 with peak oil

Question 12

RCP 8.5

Answer 12

5C by 2100
CO2 emissions do not peak before 2100

Question 13

Hindcasting

Answer 13

use past environmental conditions to calibrate a model
then use it see if it can predict current conditions
then it should be able to predict future

Question 14

Uncertainty with clouds

Answer 14

formation and breakdown are frequently fast and local events
no proxy data on clouds
cannot be captured at scale of most GCMs or RCMs (15km long)

Question 15

Parameterize

Answer 15

average a variable over a large area as accurately as possible
use that as best estimate for a small area
(split cloud into quadrants and calculate average coverage)

Question 16

Convective-permitting models

Answer 16

simulate on a very very small scale, many more grids to analyze

more accurate modeling of clouds –> more accurate rainfall modeling, more changes in precipitation rates modeling