Modelling

Question 1

Thought Experiment

Answer 1

Considering a hypothesis, theory, or principle for the purpose of thinking through its consequences

Question 2

Systems Thinking

Answer 2

Taking the overall system as well as its parts into account when modeling a scenario or understanding a problem. Tool -> Systems Map

Question 3

Scenario Analysis

Answer 3

Analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. Tool -> Pre-mortems

Question 4

Black Swan Theory

Answer 4

An event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Black swans in Australia surprised colonizers.

Question 5

Power Law

Answer 5

One quantity varies as a power of another changes. Generally, balancing another out.

Question 6

Pareto Principle

Answer 6

For many events and distributions, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes

Question 7

Normal Distribution

Answer 7

Physical quantities that are expected to be the sum of many independent processes (such as measurement errors) often have distributions that are nearly normal.

Question 8

Sensitivity Analysis

Answer 8

Uncertainty in the output of a system (numerical or otherwise) can be attributed to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. -> If you don’t know what’s going in, you are less likely to know what will come from the system.

Question 9

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Answer 9

A systematic approach to estimating the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives that satisfy transactions, activities or functional requirements for a business.