Median Voter Theorem

Question 1

MVT theory

Answer 1

Ideal point MV= key
Doesn’t have to be centrist
Beats all other ideal points in 1d policy space in majority vote
=chosen policy
Thus important for electoral strategies and outcomes

Question 2

MVT implications

Answer 2

Downs’ model: parties only care about winning know close MV=more likely win
Thus move to MV
Converge no matter what distribution of political opinion
–> parties become indistinguishable
E.g. new labour 1997
-moved towards centre = ‘clone of conservatives’

Question 3

MVT assumptions

Answer 3

1) parties can move freely to any position on L-R continuum
- lose credibility –> lose support –> lose votes
- labels used as info short cuts –> meaningless –> increasing cost voting –> lower turnout

2) there only 2 competing parties
- convergence doesn’t gold in multi-party competition
- more centrist parties could lose votes to extremists if move to centre

3) only 1-d
- voter and party pref not captured in 1d
- more dimensions –> 1) harder know where MV is
2) harder know consequences of moving direction (loses or gains?)

Question 4

Voting in general

Answer 4

Assuming voter i turns up, vote for party max utility

Depends distance to i

Assuming axioms of RCT: 1) completeness - compare and rank
-2) transivity- A>B B>C then A>C