Lesson 4 Flashcards
BU vs BB SRP.
Flop comes QJ6sdd
X/B75/C
Turn 2h
X/X
What happens to BU’s range when he checks back turn?
Since BU will bet his strongest hands, like any set, two pair and strong Qx, BU will be left with a range consisting of middling hands and bad hands.
This means that now BB is in a favorable world.
What’s the toolkit on the river as BB?
We can apply various sizes on the river and unlike the turn where we have 2 sizes for each scenario, here we can choose any of 33%,75%,150% and 400%.
Each hand has to be more precise about how much money it invests as the river is the final chance to reach the investment ceiling
What happens when we value bet and get called?
Our equity goes down (villian sheds his worst hands),
Our EV goes up (we stand to win more when we win).
So I trade having A LOT of a small pot for QUITE A LOT of a much larger pot
What’s the half blind pitfall?
Focusing only on frequency or magnitude when thinking about EV.
“I was afraid he would fold to the bigger bet here. I mean, what calls?” what is the issue here
Only considers frequency (the half blind pitfall)
“I wanted to get max value” (shoves x6 pot on a tiny pot) - what’s the issue
It considers only the magnitude (but it’s much better than betting tiny with nuts IP on the river unless the opponent rises a lot). the half-blind pitfall
“He’ll fold less often if I size smaller”- what’s the issue
- considers only frequency(the half blind pitfall)
Is the goal of bluffing to maximize fold equity?
Nope, the goal of bluffing is to maximize the ratio between investment and reward. For example, in spots where villain isn’t elastic and won’t fold much of his value range regardless of bet size, and fold all of his air regardless of bet size, betting small is much better.
“Risking 3x pot seems spewy to me”- what’s the issue
It considers only the magnitude, but not the frequency. Things that are terrible for me, aren’t that terrible if they happen really infrequently. (half-blind pitfall).
What’s the targeting fallacy?
Focusing only on one part of villian’s range for an arbitary reason, eg “I will bet 33% here to target villian’s Ax”.
When targeting, I want to think about which part of villian’s range will become indifferent to the potential bet size I consider.
Instead of targetting, what’s a better guide to bet sizing?
Landing equity (=the equity that I have prior to betting and getting called) vs villian’s range.
I can’t calculate it but I can become better when estimating landing equity.
What’s the greed theorem?
If I land on the river with massive equity and I choose to bet, I will do better by betting bigger and getting called less frequently than betting smaller and get called more frequently, UNLESS villain raises at a high frequency vs small bets
How do I prove the greed theorem?
If I bet $B into $P, in a neutral world, villain should call me P/(P+B) (aka MDF).
So my profit is BP/(P+B). The derivative by B is PB/(P+C)^2 which is always a positive number.
GTO Spot exercise for lesson 4
BB vs BU SRP, flop XB75C,X/X, river BB can bet, as BB.
BU vs BB SRP,
flop QJ6sdd X/B75/C
turn 2h X/X
river 4d
What is the favorability for BB?
Once BB’s range was condensed, and BU checked the turn, BU range contains a lot of air and BB’s range doesn’t contain a lot of air (he called a big bet on the flop). Also, since BB called with something that connected with the flop, and the river (a third diamond) is in the same theme as the flop, this again favors BB.
So BB has a high favorability in this scenario.
