Lesson 3

Question 1

Why is bluffing better when world favorability increase?

Answer 1

Because GTO would fold more if the world favor us compared to the fold equity that we need (eg it will defend way less than MDF).

Question 2

What is the “pot odds norm fold equity” when hero goes B33 on the flop?

Answer 2

From hero’s prespective,let’s assume hero has two napkins, villian needs to fold 1/(1+3)=1/4=25% of the time to make this a profitable bet. That’s the pot odds norm fold equity.

Question 3

Explain the MDF fallacy

Answer 3

We don’t have to meet MDF in an unfavorable world! As BB vs. UTG on the AA7 board, it’s theoretically correct to overfold compared to the pot odds norm.

Sentences such as “we have to call with type X hand to meet MDF” and “Otherwise he will auto profit/we get run over” are emotional and don’t take into account world favorability.

Question 4

What is the river blunder theorem?

Answer 4

“It is a blunder to check the river in a favorable situation with very little showdown value”.

Why? fold equity is above the pot odd norms in a favorable situation, so it’s +ev where checking is close to 0 ev. Therefore, betting has higher ev than checking. Therefore, I MUST bet.

Question 5

Favorable river spot 1: Double delayed c-bet.

CO vs BB, KT5J5 what should CO do with:

1. Q8s? 2.A3s? 3. A9o? 4.44?

Answer 5

Board texture is very easy to connect with for preflop raiser with three broadway cards (close to “tsunami” in the language of grade 1), so A-high is near the bottom of CO’s range when getting here:

1. Q8s - has no SDV, mandatory bet
2. A4 - pure bet

3.A9o - pure bet

4. 44 we can check back

Question 6

Favorable river spot 2: Having condensed (by calling) and being checked to.

SB vs BB SRP, sb bet on AQ6hhs,
XX on 9c
x on 2d

What should I do with the following:

1. 74hh
2. KTcc
   3.K2ss
   4.33

Answer 6

1. Mandatory bet with no SDV in a favorable spot - even though it has “negative blockers”. Favorable world overrides blockers.
2. Can check or can bet
3. same as 2 - optional bluff
4. Check back - this hand has enough SDV

Question 7

What are the bluff tiers?

Answer 7

Tiers 5-7 are the bluffing tiers:

None of them have SDV, they differ only in terms of EV.

Tier 5 has medium EV, tier 6 has low EV, tier 7 has very low EV.

Question 8

What hands belong to tier 5? What do i do with those pre-river?

Answer 8

Bluff often, in any world (favorable or not). Flush draws, OESD, a gutter to the nuts,gutter with fd blockers,

Question 9

What are tier-6 hands? What do I do with those pre-river?

Answer 9

bad draws, like a gutshot when 2 flush draws are available, can bet them only in favorable worlds and sometimes in neutral worlds, but never in unfavorable worlds.

Question 10

What are tier-7 hands? What do I do with those pre-river?

Answer 10

Complete air hands, or blocking folding range, can bluff only in favorable worlds

Question 11

What do i do with tier 5 on the river, depending on the world?

Answer 11

MUST BLUFF in any world

Question 12

What do i do with tier 6 on the river, depending on the world?

Answer 12

favorable world- must bluff,
neutral- can bluff
negative world - give up

Question 13

What do i do with tier 7 on the river, depending on the world?

Answer 13

in a favorable world- must bluff,
neutral and negative worlds - give up

Question 14

How do I categorize bluffs before the river?

Answer 14

1. Nut potential

2.Blockers

Question 15

How do I categorize bluffs on the river?

Answer 15

There’s no nut potential on the river, so it’s only about blockers.

Positive blockers- remove more of villian’s calling range than his folding range = tier 5

Neutral blockers - remove same amount = tier 6

Negative blockers - remove more of villian’s folding range than his calling range = tier 7

Remember that blockers affect by just a few percents, and things like world favorability are more important

Question 16

BU vs BB SRP,

984cdc flop goes X/B75/C
turn Ac X/B75/C

river Ah

What should BU do with the following:

1. QJcc
   2.J7hh
   3.K3CC
   4.Q5dd

Answer 16

This is a neutral world as BB did call twice.

1. QJcc- I block tons from his fold range (clubs draw,TJ, QJ). This is tier 7 and a give up
2. I unblock clubs, despite it blocking JT and 87 it’s tier 5 - mandatory bluff
3. K3cc block some of his clubs like A3cc(which is a thick value hand anyways lol), Kxcc, but it’s not too bad, I can bluff sometimes
4. Q5dd - I unblock his fold range, it’s a tier 5 bluff = must bluff

Question 17

sb vs bb SRP,
flop comes Q93ssd goes B33/C
turn 4d goes X/X
river 9c.

What should sb do with:

1.86hh
2.J8cc
3.K6hh
4.75dd

Answer 17

The 9 on the river is particularly bad for sb (bb called flop so has 9x for sure in his range).

1. This is tier 5 as it unblocks spades, unblocked T9, blocks some 98. Must bluff.
2. J8cc blocks some JT and unlocks spades, it’s tier 6-7, unfavorable world - pure giveup

3.K6hh - very neutral, unblocks spades but that’s pretty much it, tier 6 - give up

4. 75dd unblock spades,tier 5-6, can bluff

Question 18

What are the HW for lesson 3?

Answer 18

Find a hand that:

1.Hero had the chance to bluff river after betting flop and checking turn

2. Could triple barrel on the river

3.Had the chance to float bet the river (I called turn in position and he checked river).

4. had the chance to probe the river

Go over hands and think what my decisions mean in relation to the theory, how does theory connect to those. Write my own words. Review the material again.