Lecture 9.1 Syria Flashcards
Syrian background - Arab Spring
- Bashar Al Assad has been leader of Syria since 2000.
- He had originally pursued a career as an eye doctor (educated in Britain).
- However, his elder brother, who had been in line to follow their father as the leader of the country died in a car accident.
- Originally seen as a reformer.
- His British-educated and born wife also drew attention. Couple viewed by many as young, reformist, cosmopolitan leadership in a region lacking them.
- Vogue ran a special in March 2011 titled “A Rose in the Desert.” Other media outlets also joined in.
Syrian background Arab Spring - mid 2012
- Coincided with spread of Arab Spring to Syria and degeneration into civil war.
- Assad brutally cracks down on protests and then on insurgents and rebels during civil war. Estimate of casualties range from 60,000-100,000
- Later emerged that Vogue piece had been planned by a public relations firm that had been paid by the Syrian government.
- Writer of Asma Assad piece did not have her contract renewed after 30 years of working for Vogue. (similar case to LSE and Saif Gaddafi’s contribution to it.)
Syrian background mid 2012 - march
- After a few months where it looked as if the rebels may oust Assad, the tide has since turned and the general view now is that the rebels are on the defensive. Casualties keep on mounting.
- Meanwhile the outside world has largely kept to the sidelines, giving political and diplomatic support to the rebels, but refraining from intervention or military support.
- Reports emerge in March of 2013 that Assad has used chemical weapons in rebel controlled areas. Evidence mounts regarding veracity of reports. Immediate response not forthcoming though…
Syrian background August/Sept 2013
- Obama, in August of 2012, had made “off the cuff,” “unscripted” remarks (NYT), that use of chemical weapons constituted a “red line” for US intervention in Syria.
- Reports emerge again of more lethal use of chemical weapons in August of 2013. Casualties estimated at more than 1000.
- Britain and France call for intervention. House of Commons in Britain subsequently opposes military action. Obama calls for vote in Congress.
Realism and Syria
->look at “acts” and not rhetoric.
What does US behavior before last month suggest about American interests regarding intervention in Syria?
-> Roughly 100,000 civilian deaths through conventional weapons, the prospect of removing Assad had previously not been worth the costs of US intervention.
> Why? US overstretched, political orientation of rebels questioned, Syrian military capabilities, capacity for maintaining stability in Syria after intervention uncertain.
Liberalism and Syria
democracy and interdependence
What you don’t hear sometimes tells you as much as what you do here. Syria is not a democracy: Kantian liberalism does not apply here for it is a theory about relations between liberal states. You don’t here about “commerce” being affected by potential attacks, nothing about the will or voice of the Syrian people. Syria is also not well integrated with global networks, whether economically, in terms of civil society, or international institutions. Not one of the “industrialized pluralized countries“ that complex interdependence focuses on. Syria not a member of various international conventions outlawing chemical weapons.
Kantian “caution”
parliament’s vote against taking action reflected “the great skepticism of the British people about any involvement in the Middle East.”
Not certain that Obama will get the votes for action in Syria.
Why won’t US go to UN?
joint decision making
collective action problem
joint decision making and UN
“We have been trying to get the U.N. Security Council to be more assertive on Syria even before this incident… The problem is that the Russians won’t vote for any accountability.” - Benjamin J. Rhodes, deputy national security adviser
“Without a separate resolution authorizing force, the UN has mostly kept to urging a peaceful resolution to the conflict. “The situation should be resolved in a peaceful way through dialogue” –Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General
collective action problem and UN
Without consensus among the permanent members of the security council, collective action under the UN name become impossible. A coalition of those that agree with punishing Assad could still act collectively though. However…
“A lot of people think something should be done, but nobody wants to do it,” Obama said.
We can think of a chemical weapons free world as a public good that all states would like, but there are costs providing this good. Everyone would prefer that someone else bear the costs while they enjoy the benefits
Why intervention in Syria?
International Norms, Maintaining US credibility
International Norms and Syria
Who we, and humanity, want to be (or should be) as the case for intervention.
“It’s important we uphold the international taboo on the use of chemical weapons,” remarked David Cameron, British Prime Minister.
“We didn’t draw the red line, humanity drew the red line (against use of chemical weapons).” –Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader
“International norms…” -John Kerry, US secretary of State
“Heinous crime…” –Francois Hollande, French President
US Credibility and Syria
Remember in the bargaining theory of war, credibility becomes very important in securing gains (now as well as in the future) and avoiding war. Obama had said that chemical weapons use was a red line.
John McCain: “The consequences of the Congress of the United States overriding a decision of the President of the United States of this magnitude are really very, very serious… and already we’re sending a bad signal to Iran, to North Korea, to Bashar al-Assad.” –On Meet the Press
NYT: “…influential pro-Israel lobby group AIPAC was already at work pressing for military action against the government of President Bashar al-Assad, fearing that if Syria escapes American retribution for its use of chemical weapons, Iran might be emboldened in the future to attack Israel.” -NYT
