LECTURE 9 Flashcards
What is judgment in psychology?
Deciding on the likelihood of events using incomplete information, focusing on accuracy.
What is decision-making in psychology?
Selecting one option from several possibilities, often requiring judgment when full information is unavailable.
What does Bayesian inference explain?
How to update beliefs (prior probabilities) with new evidence to form posterior probabilities.
What is Bayes’ Theorem?
A formula showing how observed data updates prior beliefs to form posterior beliefs.
What is the taxicab problem by Kahneman and Tversky (1972)?
A problem illustrating base-rate neglect, where most people ignore prior probabilities and give incorrect answers.
What is base-rate neglect?
Failing to consider the base-rate information when making judgments.
What is an example of base-rate neglect?
Assuming an eyewitness’s accuracy is enough evidence without considering the relative number of Green vs. Blue cabs in the population.
What are heuristics? .
Mental shortcuts or “rules of thumb” used to make decisions quickly and with less effort
Who introduced the concept of heuristics?
Tversky and Kahneman (1974).
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Judging the likelihood of an event based on how similar it is to a prototype.
What is the conjunction fallacy?
Believing the probability of two events happening together is greater than one of them happening alone.
What is an example of the conjunction fallacy?
Assuming Linda is more likely to be a “bank teller active in the feminist movement” than just a “bank teller.”
What is the availability heuristic?
Estimating the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind.
What influences the availability heuristic?
Media coverage and personal experiences.
What is anchoring and adjustment?
Making judgments influenced by an initial reference point, even if irrelevant.
What is an example of anchoring?
Estimating the number of African countries in the UN based on a randomly spun number.
What are fast-and-frugal heuristics?
Simple decision-making strategies, such as “take-the-best,” that ignore some information to make efficient judgments.
What is the “take-the-best” heuristic?
A strategy where the best cue is selected, and all other information is ignored.
What is the recognition heuristic?
Judging one option as better because it is recognized, while the other is not.
What is the affect heuristic?
Using emotional responses to make rapid judgments or decisions.
What is Kahneman’s dual-process theory?
It proposes two systems of thought: System 1 (fast, automatic) and System 2 (slow, deliberate).
What is System 1 in dual-process theory?
Fast, automatic, effortless, and often emotionally charged thinking.
What is System 2 in dual-process theory?
Slow, effortful, deliberate, and more likely to follow rules.
What is prospect theory?
A theory by Kahneman and Tversky explaining how people evaluate potential gains and losses differently.
What is loss aversion in prospect theory?
People are more sensitive to potential losses than to equivalent gains.
What is risk aversion for gains?
Preferring a sure gain over a risky but potentially higher gain.
What is risk seeking for losses?
Preferring a risky option to avoid a certain loss.
What is the framing effect?
Decisions are influenced by how a problem is worded or presented.
What is an example of the framing effect?
People prefer “90% survival rate” over “10% mortality rate,” even though they mean the same.
What is the sunk-cost effect?
Investing more resources into a failing endeavor to justify past commitments.
What is an example of the sunk-cost effect?
Continuing a costly project (e.g., Concorde jet) despite poor returns.
What did Lichtenstein et al. (1978) study?
People overestimate the likelihood of dramatic, well-publicized causes of death compared to less publicized ones.
How does prospect theory explain paradoxical decisions?
People are risk-averse for gains but risk-seeking to avoid losses.
What is base-rate motivation?
People use base-rate information more often when motivated by high stakes or personal relevance.
What is the role of heuristics in decision-making?
They enable quick, efficient decisions but can sometimes lead to errors or biases.
What are the advantages of heuristics?
Speed, reduced cognitive load, and usually acceptable solutions.
What are the disadvantages of heuristics?
They can lead to suboptimal or incorrect decisions.
What does the McGurk effect illustrate?
How visual information can alter auditory perception in speech.
How does Kahneman’s dual-process theory summarize human thought?
System 1 is intuitive and fast, while System 2 is analytical and slow.
Why are heuristics essential in everyday life?
They allow people to make decisions quickly in complex or uncertain situations.
