Lecture 5c: How State And Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics (Threlkeld et al., 2022)

Question 1

The importance of large protests

Answer 1

Protesters often want to join larger protests because the probability of suppression is lower and the probability of policy change is bigger.

Question 2

Protest violence and protest size

Answer 2

Protest violence almost always decreases the size of the protest because:
- It decreases the consumption benefit and increases the probability of repression.
- Most people oppose violence and see it as evidence that the protesters goals are far from the mainstream view.
- Violent protest raise the risk negative consequences.
- Violent protests are seen as less justifiable, making it easier for the state to suppress them without backlash.
- Violence causes the chance to face harm for the protesters.
Violent protests invite harsher suppression, because the state labels violent protesters as threats.

Question 3

Non-violent protests

Answer 3

Are usually more effective, gain higher legitimacy, and create backlash against state repression (which can lead to even more protest growth).

Question 4

Large protests are generally more effective at influencing policy because:

Answer 4

• They send a stronger message that aligns with the preferences of the median voter.
• Even without frequent options to vote, protests can highlight public dissatisfaction in this way (especially in the absence of free media or reliable polling)
• Leaders change their policies if large protests threaten their hold on power.

Question 5

State violence in reaction to protests

Answer 5

State violence has a n-shaped relation to protest size:
- Preventative repression: leads to no protest occurring.
- Low levels of state violence: leads to increased protest size.
- High levels of state violence: leads to decreased protest size.

Question 6

This n-shaped relations depends on 2 processes.

Answer 6

1. Relative expectations of repression: protesters and bystanders evaluate repression based on how it compares to their expectations:
   - Lower than expected repression encourages people form joining protests.
   - Higher than expected repression discourages people form joining protests.
2. Emotional responses to oppression among the protesters:
   - Emboldening emotions (anger/pride/joy): encouraging effect.
   - Dispiriting emotions (fear/sadness/shame): discouraging effect.
   - Anger: can create a backlash effect, leading to event larger protest when repression in present.

Low repression: often triggers emboldening emotions –> increased participation.
High repression: often triggers dispiriting emotions –> reduced protest size.

Question 7

Implications

Answer 7

• Preventative repression can hinder protests before they start.
• Light repression often backfires by generating a backlash.
• Severe repression ‘works’ to demobilise participants.

Question 8

Design of the study

Answer 8

Researcher used computer vision and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to measure the protest size and the severity of state and protester violence, using images from former protests.