Lecture 10 Decision making under deep uncertainty

Question 1

Societal purpose of policy analysis

Answer 1

Assist decisionmakers (problem owners) in choosing a good course of action based on multiple (and often competing) criteria from among a variety of alternatives under uncertain conditions

Question 2

Scientific purpose of policy analysis

Answer 2

Improve knowledge

Question 3

The role of policy analysis

Answer 3

• Reduce the chances of proposing a poor policy, missing a good policy, implementing a policy at the wrong time, or focusing on the wrong problems
• Reduce complexity to manageable proportions
• Provide intuition, insight, and understanding
• Handle uncertainties
• Develop satisficing (acceptable) solutions efficiently

Question 4

Parts of Transport Policy Analysis Framework

Answer 4

• External forces
• Urban Transport System
• Policymakers
• Goals, objectives, preferences
• Stakeholders
• Policies / strategies
• Outcomes of interest

Question 5

Uncertainty

Answer 5

• Level of (limited) knowledge about future (and present and past)
• The gap between desired and available knowledge to come up with good decisions

Question 6

Problems with current planning

Answer 6

• Substantial underestimation of costs, delay in implementation
• Results appear less useful and necessary than initially pretended

Question 7

Causes of problem of current planning

Answer 7

• Lack of comprehensive problem definition and exploration of options
• Inappropriate ex-ante specification of costs and benefits

Question 8

Traditional approaches assume:

Answer 8

• Sufficient knowledge
• Well characterized, predictable future
• Slowly changing environment
• Stable institutional arrangements
• Optimization using predictive models

Question 9

Why aren’t traditional approaches working?

Answer 9

• Change is rapid
• System elements are tightly connected
• Standard models and scenarios don’t capture important issues

Question 10

Frame Analysis (element of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty)

Answer 10

• Define problem and specify objectives
• Specify system and its boundaries
• Identify options

Question 11

Perform exploratory uncertainty analysis (element of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty)

Answer 11

• Specify uncertainty (X, R, O, W)
• Explore vulnerabilities of options given the uncertainties

Question 12

Choose short-term and long-term options (element of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty)

Answer 12

• Examine trade-offs and means for future adaptations
• Select (starting) policy and contingencies
• Plan for monitoring and making possible adaptations

Question 13

Uncertainties related to the content of planning (mobility hubs)

Answer 13

• Unknown effect of hubs on multimodal mobility behaviour
• Unknown interaction of mobility hubs with contextual developments

Question 14

Uncertainties related to process of planning (mobility hubs)

Answer 14

Unknown interactions between actors, unknown responses of private actors to public policies, unknown division of responsibilities across actors

Question 15

Uncertainties related to institutional context of planning (mobility hubs)

Answer 15

Unknown development of patterns of perceptions of various actors towards mobility hubs, unknown development of regulatory frameworks for transport policy

Question 16

Uncertainty may be:

Answer 16

Cognitive: related to lack of knowledge
Normative: related to different norms and values across actors

Question 17

Possible methods to cope with uncertainties

Answer 17

• Collective model building
• Shared visioning
• Collective exploring
• Serious gaming