Judgement, Reasoning, & Decision-Making (ch 13) pt 1 Flashcards
Deductive Reasoning
Reasoning that involves drawingconclusions in which a conclusion logically follows from premises
Inductive Reasoning
Reasoning in which a conclusion follows from a consideration of evidence. This conclusion is stated as being probably true rather than definitely true, as can be the case for the conclusions from deductive reasoning.
Judgement
The process of drawing conclusions.
Decision
The process of making choices between alternatives.
Hypohtesis Testing
the tester compares the actual observations to the deduced consequences of the assumptions and decides whether the observations are consistent with them.
Heuristics & Biases in Judgement/Reasoning
Confirmation bias, availability heuristic,, illusory correlations, representative heuristic, myside bias, overconfidence bias, & hindsight bias.
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to our hypothesis and to overlook information that argues against it.
Availability Heuristic
Events that are more easily remembered are judged to be more probable than events that are less easily remembered.
Illusory Correlations
A correlation that appears to exist between two events, when in reality there is no correlation or it is weaker than it is assumed to be.
Representative Heuristic
The probability that an event A comes from class B can be determined by how well A resembles the properties of class B.
Myside Bias
people process information in a manner biased toward their own prior beliefs, opinions, and attitudes
Overconfidence Bias
the tendency people have to be more confident in their own abilities
Hindsight Bias
the tendency to perceive past events as more predictable than they actually were
