Judgement Flashcards
An assessment of the
probability of a given
event occurred. It
involves deciding on
the likelihood of
various events using
incomplete
information.
Judgement
Making a selection
from various options.
It involves selecting
one option from
several posibilities.
Decision
explores how our subjective
assessments of probabilities change with new
information. Bayesian inference, developed by Rev.
Thomas Bayes, provides a framework for understanding
how new data alters subjective probabilities.
Bayesian Inference is a form of statistical inference in
which initial beliefs (prior probabilities) are modified by
evidence or experience to produce posterior
probabilities.
Judgement research
The assumption
that an object or
individual belongs
to a specified
category because it
is representative
(typical) of that
category.
Representativeness
Heuristic
Are mental
shortcuts that allow
people to solve
problems and make
judgments quickly
and efficiently.
Heuristic
Measured human decision-
making, comparing answers
to what statistics and logic
predict, and found that
people used heuristics quite
a lot, which causes them to
make inaccurate judgments
and choices that lead to
biases.
Tversky & Kahneman
Which frequencies of events can be
estimated by how easy or hard it is
subjectively to retrieve them from
longterm memory.
Availability Heuristic
(De Neys, 2012; Kahneman, 2003)
The majority of people rely significantly
on heuristics to make decisions since they
can be applied quickly and easily.
Individuals still engage more complicated
cognitive processes on a regular basis.
Dual-process theory
(Tversky & Koehler, 1994)
It is based on usage of availability
heuristics. It says that an event
appears more or less likely depending
how it is described.
support theory
Proposed by Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd,
and the ABC Research Group, in Simple
Heuristics That Make Us Smart (1999).
We are born with an
“
adaptive toolbox
“
which
contains: the recognition heuristic, one good
reason (such as take-the-best heuristic) and on
the wisdom of others (such as imitate-the-
majority heuristic)
Fast and Frugal Heuristics
Fast/Automatic
Emotional
Impulse/Drives
Habits
Beliefs
Based on
Experience
Dual Process theory of thought
SYSTEM 1
Slow/Effortful
Logical
Reflection
Planning
Problem Solving
Based on
Consequence
Dual Process theory of thought
System 2
(Kahneman and Tversky (1979,1984))
It assumes that losses and gains are valued
differently, thus people make decisions based on
perceived rewards rather than perceived losses.
Also known as the
“loss-aversion
” theory, the
main idea is that if two equal choices are
presented to an individual, one in terms of
potential gains and the other in terms of potential
losses, the former will be chosen.
Prospect theory
