IR 002: Lecture 17 Flashcards
What are the 3 main types of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)?
-Chemical (ex. mustard gas, sarin gas, etc.)
-Biological
-Nuclear
When was the Chemical Weapons Convention and how many members attended?
1993 with 188 members in attendance
When was the Biological Weapons Convention and how many states signed the agreement?
1972 with 165 states signing the agreement:
-No biological weapons
-Research is only allowed on small microbes for peaceful purposes
What is nuclear latency?
You have the infrastructure/material/capabilities but choose not build nukes (ex. Japan)
What is nuclear opacity/ambiguity?
You do not officially recognize that you have nukes (ex. Israel since the late 1960s)
What is vertical proliferation?
The growth of existing arsenals
What is horizontal proliferation?
The emergence of new arsenals
Who are the nuclear weapon states?
-Russia
-The United States
-China
-France
-The United Kingdom
-India
-Israel
-North Korea
Why do states want nuclear weapons?
-National security (28 out of 30 recorded cases of nuclear development were at least partly due to security threats)
-Identity (convey a message of self-reliance/autonomy/independence/prestige)
What are the two main arguments for the debate on if nuclear weapons made the world more unstable?
Nuclear Optimist:
-Makes leaders more reasonable (don’t want to risk nuclear war)
-Explains why there have been no World Wars since 1945
Nuclear Pessimists:
-A nuclear weapon state will pursue more dangerous policies (ex. Pakistans growing support to anti-Indian terrorists)
-Accidental detonation (Are non-Western states less professional?
-Theft (ex. threats of nuclear terrorism)
-Brinksmanship and nuclear escalation (ex. 1962 Cuban missile crisis or 2023 Ukraine vs. Russia)
-Developing nukes is a tremendous diversion of resources
Approximately how much of the global annual expenditure was spent on developing nuclear weapons?
~$105 Billion
What were the post-9/11 concerns about nuclear terrorism?
-Easier for terrorist groups to obtain nuclear weapons
-Rouge states can provide nukes to terrorist giving them the means to match their hatred
What are the 4 types of nuclear terrorism?
-Steal/Buy nukes
-Steal/Buy fissile materials to build nukes
-Build a “dirty bomb”: radiological dispersal device (easier build but can make a few city block uninhabitable)
-Attacks on Nuclear power reactors (ex. plans of a United States nuclear plant found in Al Qaeda’s Afghan hideouts)
What was the Manhattan project during World War II?
-Origins: fears about the Nazi nuclear program
-Involved 500,000 people in total
-Cost: $21 Billion
-Hiroshima: Aug. 6th, 1945 killing between 90,000-160,000
-Nagasaki: Aug. 9th, 1945 (60,000-80,000)
What was the nuclear revolution theory?
The conviction that nukes had changed International Relations forever by making wars unthinkable
When was the early atomic age?
1945-1949
When was the Soviet Union’s first nuclear test?
August 1949
When was the nuclear race?
1949-1991
What was the goal during the nuclear race of the late 1900s?
-Reduce vulnerabilities against potential attacks
-Develop new delivery vehicles (bombers/long-range missiles/submarines)
-Improve intelligence collection
-Build more nuclear weapons
-Development of nuclear war strategies
Approximately how many nukes did the United States have in 1967?
~32,000
Approximately how many nukes did the Soviet Union have in the mid 1980s?
~40,000
When was the Cuban missile crisis?
1962
When was first US-Soviet arms control agreements?
1972
What is the United States nuclear modernization program today?
-Announced in 2010 by Obama
-Trump expanded the budget from $1.2 Trillion to $1.7 Trillion
-Biden canceled a few items but endorsed most of it
When did the US-Soviet begin pushing for a Non-proliferation Treaty to keep the number nclear weapon states to a minimum?
1968
When did the US-Soviet begin to move towards nuclear disarmament?
1980s
What is the current United States nuclear arsenal as of 2023?
-5,244 warheads (deployed/in storage/retired)
-Best delivery vehicles (bombers, submarines, land missiles)
-Best intelligence capabilities
-Global network of bases
What are the two main ideas surrounding the United States nuclear policy today?
1) The United States must be more assertive and powerful
2) The United States assertiveness and power is destabilizing
What is the Chinese nuclear threat?
-China’s growing nuclear assertiveness
-Nuclear buildup (Today: 300-400 nukes, by 2035: likely 1,500 nukes, nuclear missiles can reach the United States, hypersonic vehicle test)
-China’s regime is untrustworthy
What are some of the counterarguments to the Chinese nuclear threat?
-The United States has many more nukes and delivery vehicles
-The United States is encircling China (not the other way around)
What is the Russian nuclear threat?
-Nuclear modernization (2023: ~6,000 nukes, ~70 billion in spending on nuclear development from 2011-2020
-The Ukraine war could lead to a nuclear exchange
