Global Market Forecast

Question 1

Air Traffic

Answer 1

RPK x2 every 15 years

Question 2

New Aircraft demand

Answer 2

34,900 over the next 20 years
40% for replacements and 60% for growth
Latin America 8% = 2666 Aircrafts 2017-2036

Question 3

Passenger Jet fleet forecast

Answer 3

Fleet doubles every 20 years. From 20,500 in 2017 to 42,530 in 2036

Question 4

Services Forecast 2017 to 2036

Answer 4

3.2T US$ from 2017 to 2036.

From over 110bn$ to more than 220bn$ per year

Question 5

MRO demand over 20 years

Answer 5

$1.85Tn

Question 6

MRO Market

Answer 6

x2 every 20 years

Question 7

MRO Market Split per Region 2017 to 2036

Answer 7

36% Asia Pacific
20% Europe
18% North America
10% Middle East
8% South America = 139bn US$
4% Africa
4% CIS = Russian Commonwealth (Russia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgistan, Armenia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan)

Question 8

Cabin & Systems Upgrade Market 2017-2036

Answer 8

180bn US$

Latin America: 5% = 9bn US$

Question 9

New Technicians 2017-2036

Answer 9

548K

Latin America: 10% = 53.8K

Question 10

New Pilots 2017-2037

Answer 10

534K

Latin America: 9% = 49.1K

Question 11

Air Transport Market Growth

Answer 11

60% over last ten years. Air Travel has proved to be reliient to external shocks such as Oi Crisis in the 70s and Gulf crisis in the 90s as well as Financial crisis in 2009

Question 12

Revenue Passenger Kilometeres (RPK) growth

Answer 12

6.3% in 2016 = 3.7bn pax carried by air in 2016. Over 50% of the worlds tourists who travel across international borders are transported by air.

Question 13

Global annual air traffic growth for the next 20 years

Answer 13

4.4%

Latin America 4.7%

Question 14

LATAM Traffic Flows 2017 to 2036

Answer 14

Domestic Brazil/Domestic South America: x2.6
South America to USA: x2.3
Western Europe - South America: x2.0

Question 15

Avg Load Factor

Answer 15

Around 80%

Question 16

Cabin Trends

Answer 16

Airline Business Model:
LCC: from short range to long range / 10 out of 30 largest airlines have now LCC in their group & 9 out of 10 LCC’s now also target Business Travellers.
Anxilliary Revenues:
30to40% linked to the cabin
59.2bn generated in 2015
x2.6 growth since 2007
Connectivity:
74 airlines offered in-flight connectivity in 2016
more than 16,000 aircrafts forecasted to ve equipped by 2025
Passenger Landscape:
nb of always online passengers increases
100% smartphone penetration of millennials by 2018 has been predicted
15% of passengers carry 3 mobile devices today

Question 17

Latin American Economy

Answer 17

• After two years of contraction the rebound of commodity
prices, Brazil’s abating recession, as well as Argentinian
economic progress is leading South America’s slow recovery.
• Despite long-term challenges including inadequate
infrastructure, restrictive business environments and income
inequality, the long term prospect for Latin America remains
positive.
• Real GDP growth is expected to average +3.0% per year
over the period 2016-2036.

Question 18

Latin American International Traffic

Answer 18

1-Mexico with 3m monthly seats (+50% since 2009 due to link to USA)
2- Brazil
3-Paraguay

Question 19

Boeing Global Services Revenue

Answer 19

15bn$ in 2015 up to 50bn$ in 2025