F8 Simple state-level models

Question 1

What are five basic components of a probabilistic forecasting model?

Answer 1

1) Fundamentals forecast of NPV
2) Model state-level prior (NPV-SPV from 2020)
3) State and national polls
4) Modeling sampling and non-sampling error i polls
5) Model state and national opinion changes during campaign

Question 2

What is the main difference between Linzer (2013) and our model?

Answer 2

Linzer believes house effects will even out (criticized by Jackman).

Linzer assume a uniform swing when sharing polls across states (no covariance matrix)

Question 3

Why not just use NPV-SPV from fundamentals?

Answer 3

The assumption of similar swing from election to election is to simple.

Question 4

What does Linzer (2013) assume about the race?

Answer 4

He assumes no third candidates

Question 5

What is a random walk?

Answer 5

An exploration of data within parameters. It has a random element but is not completely random