F15 Recap of course

Question 1

What is our approach to forecasting?

Answer 1

Probabilistic

Question 2

What are reasons to forecast?

Answer 2

There is demand (but is that equal to value)?

Can help to organize political and economic resources

Can help temper ever-growing desire to report on “change”

Can help advance understanding of voters and their electoral preferences

Question 3

Deliver the simple Bayesian answer

Answer 3

First, before conducting a study, researchers explicitly state what they believe to be true, and how confident they are in that belief. This is called a “prior”.

Next, after acquiring data, they update this prior to reflect the new information—gaining more confidence if it confirms the prior, and generally becoming more uncertain if it refutes the prior

The model is exploring the within the bounds of the parameters we’ve given the model.

Question 4

What are implications of the electoral college?

Answer 4

Few Americans live in states where campaigns are present
It really depends on seven states
Weird interpretation of results: EV victory can look big + popular vote off

Question 5

What is the difference between sampling and nonsampling error?

Answer 5

Sampling error: Random chance of difference in sample and population.

Nonsampling error: House effects, mode effects, population effects and adjusters

Question 6

What is the difference between polls 6 months prior to election and closer to election?

Answer 6

Polls can be problematic many months in advance (voters are not paying attention)

Converge towards ‘true’ opinions closer to election (economic voting of swing voters - fundamentals are brought to voters through campagining)

Question 7

What characterizes swing voters?

Answer 7

They are weak partisans or independents (10%) and not locked in by sociodemographic.

Question 8

What is the difference between issue voting and proximity models?

Answer 8

Issue: Simple evaluation of economic performance

Proximity models: Which candidate is closer to my preference (assume full information)

Question 9

How did states swing in the 2024 election?

Answer 9

Uniformly - all more in favor of Trump

Question 10

Why is the Michigan model different from proximity models?

Answer 10

Assumptions about high level of voter rational and effort from voters are unrealistic

It doesn’t capture stuff like elite cuing (from groups)