F3 Fundamentals model Flashcards
What is the ‘Time for change’ model?
A referendum on the incumbent president: Popularity of the incumbent president, state of the economy (GDP Q2) and number of terms in the White House.
Erikson & Wlezien (2014) make a distinction between internal and external fundamentals, explain.
Internal fundamentals are part of the voter’s political predispositions. The campaign reinforces the voter’s party identification, ideological proclivities, and demographically based partisan loyalties.
External fundamentals are environmental forces unique to the campaign, such as, but not limited to, the state of the economy.
What are four relevant considerations for fundamentals in this election?
Trump has already been president - how does his incumbency come into play?
Will Harris inherit Bidens unpopularity?
How are perceptions of economy affected by polarization?
Is party identification more important than fundamentals due to polarization?
Does campaigning matter?
Fundamentals and Michigan model: Not really
Maybe for mobilization or in close elections.
Which presidents did not win after the party had only one term in the White House?
Jimmy Carter (1980)
Donald Trump (2020)
Kamala Harris (2024)
What is the advantage of only one term? What is the disadvantage of two terms?
One term: Speak as president, display of power, states man factor, status-quo bias etc.
Two term: Ready for change, new candidate, you dont need more than 8 years to fix the economy
What is a disadvantage of using fundamentals?
They assume states swing similarly and thus doesn’t incorporate the state-level (all national measures).
Why can popularity of the president explain vote?
A very good predictor of the national mood towards the president.
A proxy for many thing that economic indicators does not capture (e.g. war).
Who has been just as unpopular as Biden?
Bush in his second term (2004-2008)
Is GDP Q2 a strong predictor?
Not compared to popularity
How does significance and fundamentals mix?
Not very well. We only have 19 election and 2020 was an outlier. Does not satisfy CLT.
What is another fundamentals models?
The 13 keys to the White House.
What is a key take away from Linzer & Lauderdale (2015)
Anything can happen in an election.
Fundamentals (with historical regression) underestimate uncertainty.
