F11-F14 Random stuff

Question 1

What could be reasons for polls over- or underestimating Trump?

Answer 1

Overestimating: Overcorrect for past mistakes

Underestimate: Trump mobilize voters that are difficult to capture in a poll (partisan nonresponse). Does the actual turnout underrepresent trump (population effects)

Question 2

What could be reasons for Trump winning?

Answer 2

The bro-strategy worked

Question 3

What could be reasons for Harris winnig?

Answer 3

A massive gender gap (as predicted) / strong female vote

Low turnout of non-college

Question 4

What could be reasons for polls over- or underestimating Harris?

Answer 4

Overestimating: Lower turnout than predicted. Herding?

Underestimating: Recalled 2020 vote adjustments

Question 5

Why shouldn’t we trust forecasts?

Answer 5

Grimmer et al. (2024) show that we are decades away from assessing probabilistic forecasting provides reliable insights into election outcomes due to limited empirical data (elections).

Question 6

What could a solution to assessing model performance in other ways than ‘right or wrong’

Answer 6

Morris: Looking a the distance from the result on vote share

Question 7

What is MSE?

Answer 7

Mean squared error. The average squared difference between observed and predicted value.

MSE is always positive and sensitive to outliers.

Question 8

What type of election was 2024?

Answer 8

Maybe more balancing than realignment. A realignment would have been clearer in polls

Question 9

Why was the turnout lower?

Answer 9

No primaries could be reasons for less mobilization.

Question 10

How was the national swing?

Answer 10

Very uniform towards Trump nation wide expect a few places (GA amongst others).

Question 11

What could lead to polling error in 2024?

Answer 11

Closet republicans (not voting Harris)
Changing of the latino vote
Adjustment for recalled vote
Less incentive to get ride of Trump (very strong motivation in primaries for Biden).
The bro vote (Elon Musk etc.)

Question 12

What was the polling error in the last 21 days according to 538?

Answer 12

2024: D+2.7
2020: D+4.2
2016: D+3.2

Question 13

Which states had big/small polling error in 2024

Answer 13

Iowa: D+8.2
Florida: D+6.6

Georgia: D+1.0
Wisconsin: D+1.6

Question 14

How was the polling error in swing states?

Answer 14

All overestimated Democrats between +1 and +3

Question 15

Why is the assumption of correlation in state-level sample error not the best?

Answer 15

Past three elections:
Iowa between Dem+6.2 and Dem+8.2
Georgia between Dem+0.7 and Dem+1.4

Question 16

Explain anti-incumbency explanation of the eleciton.

Answer 16

All incumbents have lost in 2024. Covid-19 and inflation backlash?

Question 17

Explain partisan nonresponse bias in 2024 polls

Answer 17

An explanation could be that Trump mobilizes republican voters with the lowest propensity score for voting (young men etc.)

Question 18

What about the latino vote in 2024?

Answer 18

One county in Texas with 97 pct. latino shifted 75 pct. points Trump from 2016 to 2024.

Question 19

What was special about turnout in 2024?

Answer 19

People had hadn’t voted since 2018 overwhelmingly voted Trump. Maybe he mobilizes people because of inflation that normally doesn’t vote.

Question 20

What can we say about polls in general in 2024?

Answer 20

Fewer polls but with higher quality.
Fewer polls due to late change in candidate.