F1 Introduction to forecast modelling

Question 1

What is special about Maine, Nebraska and District of Columbia?

Answer 1

Two states, Maine and Nebraska, do not apply the winner-takes-all rule to allocate their electoral votes; for the sake of simplicity, we will apply the winner-takes-all rule uniformly across these states as well.

District of Columbia is not a state but has 3 EV

Question 2

What are the seven swing states?

Answer 2

Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Question 3

What is the great compromise and what was the two proposals leading up to it?

Answer 3

A compromise at the constitutional convention in Philadelphia between big and small states’ preferences:

Virginia plan (number of representatives based on state population)

New Jersey plan (each state has one vote)

Bicameral legislature, with a House of Representatives based on population and a senate with equal state representation

Question 4

What are arguments for election forecasting? How is it useful?

Answer 4

There is a massive demand.

Instrumental use to organize political and economic ressources.

Understanding voters and electoral preferences.

Question 5

What are the big forecasters?

Answer 5

538
The Economist
Silver Bulletin
The needle

Question 6

How were slaves treated the great compromise?

Answer 6

The three-fifths compromise established that slaves would be counted as 3/5 of a citizen (important of southern states)

Question 7

What were the different considerations regarding election of a president?

Answer 7

By the legislature or by the people.

Legislature: A big focus on seperation of powers and concerns about corruption.

People: College educated are the ones designing and they don’t believe that people are informed + worried about home-state advantage.

Question 8

What was the solution to how a president should be elected and what was the expectation from this system?

Answer 8

The electoral college - an indirect way of election a president

Question 9

What happens if candidates are tied in the electoral collage?

Answer 9

The House decides with one vote pr. state. Last time it happened was in 1824

Question 10

How is the amount of electors determined for at state?

Answer 10

Number of seats in House + Senate (always=2)

Question 11

How does the electoral college differ today from the intention back then?

Answer 11

They expected electors to be wise and informed citizens voting for candidates from their own states resulting in the House deciding every time.

Question 12

What kind of system is the U.S. election system?

Answer 12

Winner takes it all in all state but two: Maine and Nebraska

Question 13

How many electors are their and how many does it take to win?

Answer 13

All in all 538 (100 from Senate, 435 from House and 3 from DC). It takes 270 to win

Question 14

What are the four main implications and critics of the U.S. election system?

Answer 14

‘Artificial’ focus on swing states where there is ‘something to be gained’ resulting in resources are primarily allocated to swing states

Favors a two-party-system due to winner takes it all

Push towards the median voter

You can win the popular vote without winning the election

Question 15

What is the main assumption with political and economic fundamentals

Answer 15

It’s not an election between candidates but a referendum on the performance of the incumbent president.

Question 16

What is MAGA within the GOP?

Answer 16

Make america great again

Question 17

What is a super PAC?

Answer 17

Political Action Committee.

A political organisation that raise money for candidates without coordinating with the campagins.

Question 18

How can the U.S. election be characterized?

Answer 18

U.S. presidential elections are, in essence, multiple state-level contests.

Question 19

What is ANES?

Answer 19

American National Election Studies.

The ANES is a nation-wide survey that has been conducted for every election since 1948. The ANES conducts face- to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of adults.

Question 20

What is the national swing?

Answer 20

States often swing similarly from election to election. In 2024 all states swung republican. Can be used for sharing information across state lines.

Question 21

What is split-ticket voting?

Answer 21

Voting for different parties in general and midterm elections. Becoming rare.

Question 22

What is the popular vote?

Answer 22

The national vote share for a candidate across all states

Question 23

How should you visualize predictions?

Answer 23

In many different ways. Important considerations:

Vote share vs. election winner.
Understanding probability.
Underestimating uncertainty.

Question 24

What are disadvantages of election forecasting?

Answer 24

Could affect turnout (my candidate is definitely losing anyways).

Moves attention from policy to the horse race.

Increase distrust in science and political system.

Question 25

What are are two challenges for forecasting?

Answer 25

Small n problem - not a lot of elections.
Third party candidates

Question 26

What is so special about this election?

Answer 26

Polarization / calcification is messing with perception of fundamentals

Covid-19 is messing with the economy and it’s difficult to separate from policy (inflation reduction act)

Fewer polls in the model because of late change of candidate

Question 27

How are 5 important persons and what is their affiliation?

Answer 27

Nate Silver (538 before now Silver Bulletin)
Alan Abramowitz (fundamentals)
Andrew Gelman (the Economist)
Merlin Heidemanns (the Economist)
Elliott Marris (the Economist before now 538)

Question 28

What are 5 important pollsters?

Answer 28

AtlasIntel – very recognized pollster
Fox News – republican
Gallup
YouGov – only panel
Selzer & Co. is one of the most reliable in Iowa

Question 29

What is a relevant distinction between vote share and election winner?

Answer 29

You can win the popular vote without winning the election because of the electoral college

Question 30

What is a relevant distinction between vote intention and vote turnout

Answer 30

They are not necessarily equal each other which can have grave implications for polling data (nonresponse bias)

Question 31

What is the dependent and independent variable in fundamentals models?

Answer 31

Independent: Fundamentals (political and economic)
Dependent: Two-party vote share

Question 32

What is another major criticism of forecasting?

Answer 32

Not good in close elections, but that where we need them most (538 podcast).