F1 Introduction to forecast modelling Flashcards
All the basics
What is special about Maine, Nebraska and District of Columbia?
Two states, Maine and Nebraska, do not apply the winner-takes-all rule to allocate their electoral votes; for the sake of simplicity, we will apply the winner-takes-all rule uniformly across these states as well.
District of Columbia is not a state but has 3 EV
What are the seven swing states?
Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
What is the great compromise and what was the two proposals leading up to it?
A compromise at the constitutional convention in Philadelphia between big and small states’ preferences:
Virginia plan (number of representatives based on state population)
New Jersey plan (each state has one vote)
Bicameral legislature, with a House of Representatives based on population and a senate with equal state representation
What are arguments for election forecasting? How is it useful?
There is a massive demand.
Instrumental use to organize political and economic ressources.
Understanding voters and electoral preferences.
What are the big forecasters?
538
The Economist
Silver Bulletin
The needle
How were slaves treated the great compromise?
The three-fifths compromise established that slaves would be counted as 3/5 of a citizen (important of southern states)
What were the different considerations regarding election of a president?
By the legislature or by the people.
Legislature: A big focus on seperation of powers and concerns about corruption.
People: College educated are the ones designing and they don’t believe that people are informed + worried about home-state advantage.
What was the solution to how a president should be elected and what was the expectation from this system?
The electoral college - an indirect way of election a president
What happens if candidates are tied in the electoral collage?
The House decides with one vote pr. state. Last time it happened was in 1824
How is the amount of electors determined for at state?
Number of seats in House + Senate (always=2)
How does the electoral college differ today from the intention back then?
They expected electors to be wise and informed citizens voting for candidates from their own states resulting in the House deciding every time.
What kind of system is the U.S. election system?
Winner takes it all in all state but two: Maine and Nebraska
How many electors are their and how many does it take to win?
All in all 538 (100 from Senate, 435 from House and 3 from DC). It takes 270 to win
What are the four main implications and critics of the U.S. election system?
‘Artificial’ focus on swing states where there is ‘something to be gained’ resulting in resources are primarily allocated to swing states
Favors a two-party-system due to winner takes it all
Push towards the median voter
You can win the popular vote without winning the election
What is the main assumption with political and economic fundamentals
It’s not an election between candidates but a referendum on the performance of the incumbent president.
What is MAGA within the GOP?
Make america great again
What is a super PAC?
Political Action Committee.
A political organisation that raise money for candidates without coordinating with the campagins.
How can the U.S. election be characterized?
U.S. presidential elections are, in essence, multiple state-level contests.
What is ANES?
American National Election Studies.
The ANES is a nation-wide survey that has been conducted for every election since 1948. The ANES conducts face- to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of adults.
What is the national swing?
States often swing similarly from election to election. In 2024 all states swung republican. Can be used for sharing information across state lines.
What is split-ticket voting?
Voting for different parties in general and midterm elections. Becoming rare.
What is the popular vote?
The national vote share for a candidate across all states
How should you visualize predictions?
In many different ways. Important considerations:
Vote share vs. election winner.
Understanding probability.
Underestimating uncertainty.
What are disadvantages of election forecasting?
Could affect turnout (my candidate is definitely losing anyways).
Moves attention from policy to the horse race.
Increase distrust in science and political system.
What are are two challenges for forecasting?
Small n problem - not a lot of elections.
Third party candidates
What is so special about this election?
Polarization / calcification is messing with perception of fundamentals
Covid-19 is messing with the economy and it’s difficult to separate from policy (inflation reduction act)
Fewer polls in the model because of late change of candidate
How are 5 important persons and what is their affiliation?
Nate Silver (538 before now Silver Bulletin)
Alan Abramowitz (fundamentals)
Andrew Gelman (the Economist)
Merlin Heidemanns (the Economist)
Elliott Marris (the Economist before now 538)
What are 5 important pollsters?
AtlasIntel – very recognized pollster
Fox News – republican
Gallup
YouGov – only panel
Selzer & Co. is one of the most reliable in Iowa
What is a relevant distinction between vote share and election winner?
You can win the popular vote without winning the election because of the electoral college
What is a relevant distinction between vote intention and vote turnout
They are not necessarily equal each other which can have grave implications for polling data (nonresponse bias)
What is the dependent and independent variable in fundamentals models?
Independent: Fundamentals (political and economic)
Dependent: Two-party vote share
What is another major criticism of forecasting?
Not good in close elections, but that where we need them most (538 podcast).
