F6 Sociodemographic

Question 1

What is the bible and slave belt?

Answer 1

Southern states with many white evangelicals and blacks

Question 2

If you can’t swing voters, what might you focus on instead?

Answer 2

Mobilisation of voters - turnout.

Question 3

How are national polls distributed in the model?

Answer 3

Relative to the share of population living in the state. If California has 12% of the population then in the covariance matrix it’s 0.12 between US and CA.

This is to reflect how many there might possible origin from California in a national poll.

Question 4

What is the reasoning behind a covariance matrix?

Answer 4

Why throw out information from one state that could have been used in another? Mitigate the problem that some states are rarely polled because they are solid GOP or dem

Question 5

How do we move from the national to state level?

Answer 5

Via state level polls and sociodemographics in the top of the Michigan model. We use polling in one state to update the polling in another state.

Question 6

Where does the covariance matrix stem from?

Answer 6

Linzer (2013)

Question 7

What is the state partisan index?

Answer 7

NPV (national popular vote) - SPV (state popular vote).

Question 8

Why is it important to get to the state level?

Answer 8

States do not necessarily follow the national swing. Pennsylvania (dem in 2016) and Florida (GOP in 2016) might move differently from election to election.

With the simpel model, the state partisan index, we assume uniform swings.

Question 9

What does elasticity mean regarding state results?

Answer 9

Some states are very elastic and move a lot from election to election. Others are more stabel.

They don’t necessarily move in the same direction.

Question 10

Georgia and Florida are neighboring states and have large black populations. But they swing differently. What might cause this?

Answer 10

Georgia: Young and well educated are moving to GA

Florida: The population is getting older.

Question 11

What can you say about white evangelical?

Answer 11

They are one of the most cohesive groups historically.

They are spread out across the country but with higher densities in the bible belt.

Question 12

Which groups does the Democrats typically hold an advantage?

Answer 12

Women
Black
Hispanic
Younger
College educated
Not religious
Urban

Question 13

Which groups does the GOP typically hold an advantage?

Answer 13

Men
White
Older
High school educated
White evangelicals + mormon
Rural

Question 14

What are two key explanations for sociodemographics

Answer 14

Group identification
Class voting

Question 15

Why should group membership matter?

Answer 15

1) Psychological identification (experiences, social integration etc.)

2) Linked fate (shared experiences e.g. discrimination)

3) Membership (mostly unions)

Question 16

Why are blacks one of the most cohesive groups and will this continue?

Answer 16

The civil rights movement organizational very closed linked to democrats. Growing up parents passed down political views.

The black bro-vote: Young men aren’t as conscious about their history as before (no difference in 2008, big difference i 2024)

Question 17

Why can membership be an explanation of vote?

Answer 17

Social ties and daily interactions. People vote as if they have all information because they follow a signal from a group as a reference point.

Question 18

What is the difference between objective and subjective social class?

Answer 18

Objective: Income, employment, education

Subjective: Political sophistication, interest (people tend to identify with the middle class)

Question 19

Why might class explain vote?

Answer 19

Class voting is in decline.

Question 20

Explain the importance of education in recent elections

Answer 20

Maybe a realignment in education.

White college educated moved to dem
White no college degree moved to GOP

Question 21

Among which groups did Trump gain votes in 2020?

Answer 21

Conservative and moderate latino voters.
Conservative black voters
Conservative asian voters

Question 22

What is the basic intuition behind the covariance matrix?

Answer 22

National events affect sociodemographic groups in specific ways.