F6 Sociodemographic Flashcards
What is the bible and slave belt?
Southern states with many white evangelicals and blacks
If you can’t swing voters, what might you focus on instead?
Mobilisation of voters - turnout.
How are national polls distributed in the model?
Relative to the share of population living in the state. If California has 12% of the population then in the covariance matrix it’s 0.12 between US and CA.
This is to reflect how many there might possible origin from California in a national poll.
What is the reasoning behind a covariance matrix?
Why throw out information from one state that could have been used in another? Mitigate the problem that some states are rarely polled because they are solid GOP or dem
How do we move from the national to state level?
Via state level polls and sociodemographics in the top of the Michigan model. We use polling in one state to update the polling in another state.
Where does the covariance matrix stem from?
Linzer (2013)
What is the state partisan index?
NPV (national popular vote) - SPV (state popular vote).
Why is it important to get to the state level?
States do not necessarily follow the national swing. Pennsylvania (dem in 2016) and Florida (GOP in 2016) might move differently from election to election.
With the simpel model, the state partisan index, we assume uniform swings.
What does elasticity mean regarding state results?
Some states are very elastic and move a lot from election to election. Others are more stabel.
They don’t necessarily move in the same direction.
Georgia and Florida are neighboring states and have large black populations. But they swing differently. What might cause this?
Georgia: Young and well educated are moving to GA
Florida: The population is getting older.
What can you say about white evangelical?
They are one of the most cohesive groups historically.
They are spread out across the country but with higher densities in the bible belt.
Which groups does the Democrats typically hold an advantage?
Women
Black
Hispanic
Younger
College educated
Not religious
Urban
Which groups does the GOP typically hold an advantage?
Men
White
Older
High school educated
White evangelicals + mormon
Rural
What are two key explanations for sociodemographics
Group identification
Class voting
Why should group membership matter?
1) Psychological identification (experiences, social integration etc.)
2) Linked fate (shared experiences e.g. discrimination)
3) Membership (mostly unions)
Why are blacks one of the most cohesive groups and will this continue?
The civil rights movement organizational very closed linked to democrats. Growing up parents passed down political views.
The black bro-vote: Young men aren’t as conscious about their history as before (no difference in 2008, big difference i 2024)
Why can membership be an explanation of vote?
Social ties and daily interactions. People vote as if they have all information because they follow a signal from a group as a reference point.
What is the difference between objective and subjective social class?
Objective: Income, employment, education
Subjective: Political sophistication, interest (people tend to identify with the middle class)
Why might class explain vote?
Class voting is in decline.
Explain the importance of education in recent elections
Maybe a realignment in education.
White college educated moved to dem
White no college degree moved to GOP
Among which groups did Trump gain votes in 2020?
Conservative and moderate latino voters.
Conservative black voters
Conservative asian voters
What is the basic intuition behind the covariance matrix?
National events affect sociodemographic groups in specific ways.
