Exam 3 Ch 13

Question 1

Algorithms vs heuristics [placeholder]

Answer 1

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Question 2

Algorithms (guess the example)

Answer 2

There’s an upcoming exam. Instead of studying everything, you spend more time studying the material that your profefssor emphasized in class, because you think that’s more likely to be on the exa

Question 3

Heuristic (guess the example)

Answer 3

You need to make dessert so you bake a cake by closely following a recipe from a cookbook

A solution of trial and error and rules that are loosely defined

Question 4

Deduction vs Induction [placeholder]

Answer 4

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Question 5

Deduction

Answer 5

Drawing specific conclusions from general principles

Ex: A person knowing evidence based facts and drawing a (conclusion) based off those facts.

Question 6

Induction

Answer 6

Drawing general conclusions from specific facts like your personal world view, personal anecdotes, or POV

• Very illogical

Ex: A researcher making a theory based off of the data they got

Question 7

Judgement

Answer 7

• Frequency or probability estimates
• often involves induction (generalizing from observations
• heuristics include: availability, representativeness, anchor & adjust
• problems include: confirmation bias, base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, gambler’s fallacy

Question 8

Availability Heuristic

Answer 8

Since we do not have direct data on frequency of events, in our minds we use a proxy: how easily examples come to our mind

• The media heavily influences this
• More frequent things generally come to mind more easily

– Usualy works but can be devastating when it doesn’t

Ex: You hear a lot about plan crashes which are extremely rare, you don’t hear about the safe uneventful flights

Ex: You ruminate over the handful of times you have embrassed yourself

Question 9

Illusory Correlation

Answer 9

• When we think there is a big relationship between two events/variables, but here actually isn’t (or it’s really small)
• Can lead to
• superstitions
• stereotypes (Hamilton & Gifford, 1976)

Question 10

Confirmation Bias

Answer 10

• The tendency to seek/consider evidence that would SUPPORT our existing belief over evidence that would oppose it
• The tendency to neglect disconfirming evidence

Question 11

Conjuntion Fallacy

Answer 11

We use resemblance without considering that the probability of [A & B together] cannot possibly be higher than the probability of just A alone

• Linda bank teller… Not all bank tellers are active feminists…
• If you think about the choices carefully, you will realize that the first choice must be more likely than the second choice, because every liberal Democrat bank teller is also a bank teller, while not all bank tellers are liberal Democrats. But Kristen sounds so much like a liberal Democrat (and so unlike a bank teller) that most people mistakenly choose the second option, as shown in the graph at right.

Question 12

Belief Perseverance

Answer 12

tendency to continue endorsing a belief even when evidence has completely undermined it.

Question 13

The backfire effect

Answer 13

An individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoints

Question 14

Representativeness Heuristic

Answer 14

Judge probability based on how much the individual resembles a category prototype

Linda the feminist bank teller:

Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations

Which of the following statements is more probable?

Linda is a bank teller

Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement

Answer: People assumed she was active in the feminist movement and a bankteller because of her descritption. The percentage of bank tellers actual active in the feminist movement is very low yet people assumed since she shared similar characterstics and hobbies of someone active in the movement

Question 15

Base Rate Neglect

Answer 15

We use resemblance without considering the base rate of categories in the population

Ex: 500,000 farmers vs. 100,000 librarians

Question 16

Gambler’s Fallacy

Answer 16

The mistaken belief that a random process will conform to expected probabilties in the short run

Ex: When you flip a coin the belief that tails is more likely to come than heads since you got heads so many other times before

Question 17

Anchor & Adjust Heuristic

Answer 17

We make estimates by anchoring on a starting value, then adjusting (often insufficiently)

Ex: if you give choices and say guess more than 10% or less than 10% the starting value will be lower

Ex: If you give choices and say guess more than 65% or less than 65% the starting value will be higher

Question 18

Logical Reasoning: Deduction

Answer 18

Making logical conclusions that follow from accepted premises

–categorical syllogisms

– conditional statements

Question 19

Categorical Syllogisms

Answer 19

2 premises accepted as true

A conclusion which may or may not be valid

Premise 1: All birds are animals

Premise 2: All animals eat food

ConclusionL All birds eat food

If A=B
and If B=C
Then A=C
This would be a valid conlusion

Question 20

Belief Bias (Think of categorical syllogisms)

Answer 20

Tendency to judge conclusions as valid/invalid based on whether they fit with our existing beliefs (which is irrelevant to the logic)

Question 21

Watson 4 Card Task: Test of conditional reasoning

Answer 21

If there is a vowel, then there needs to be an even number… If then statements

If there is a vowel on the other side of the number (7) its dispproves the claimed rule

To test a conditional rule, you need to look for situations that would falsify/disprove the rule

Most people can’t do this because of confirmation bias, humans are biased to seek confirming evidence and not evidence that would potentially disprove the rule you are assessing or your current belief

Question 22

What is a way to reframe the watson problem so that people solve it more easily

Answer 22

If vowel, then even

• stick to the rule to the letter
• If you it doesn’t work that’s good you disproed the rule

Question 23

Expected Utility Theory

Answer 23

• Predicts what people would do if completely rational
• Choose the option with the greatest expected value
• HOWEVER This does not work because of FRAMING EFFECTS

Question 24

Prospect Theory [placeholder]

Answer 24

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Question 25

Framing Effects

Answer 25

The way a question is asked can influence peoples’ decisions

Talk about the potential gains, do not talk about the potential losses

Question 26

Loss aversion

Answer 26

• We hate losses more than we love gains

Question 27

Diminishing Marginal Utility

Answer 27

When framing changes the percentage saved, it can change your decision making

Question 28

Dual Process [placeholder]

Answer 28

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Question 29

Type 1 processing

Answer 29

heuristic based: fast, intuitive, automatic, but prone to error…induction

Question 30

Type 2 processing

Answer 30

logic-basedL slow and controlled, conscious, but less prone to error…deduction.