Exam 3 Ch 13 Flashcards
Algorithms vs heuristics [placeholder]
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Algorithms (guess the example)
There’s an upcoming exam. Instead of studying everything, you spend more time studying the material that your profefssor emphasized in class, because you think that’s more likely to be on the exa
Heuristic (guess the example)
You need to make dessert so you bake a cake by closely following a recipe from a cookbook
A solution of trial and error and rules that are loosely defined
Deduction vs Induction [placeholder]
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Deduction
Drawing specific conclusions from general principles
Ex: A person knowing evidence based facts and drawing a (conclusion) based off those facts.
Induction
Drawing general conclusions from specific facts like your personal world view, personal anecdotes, or POV
- Very illogical
Ex: A researcher making a theory based off of the data they got
Judgement
- Frequency or probability estimates
- often involves induction (generalizing from observations
- heuristics include: availability, representativeness, anchor & adjust
- problems include: confirmation bias, base rate neglect, conjunction fallacy, gambler’s fallacy
Availability Heuristic
Since we do not have direct data on frequency of events, in our minds we use a proxy: how easily examples come to our mind
- The media heavily influences this
- More frequent things generally come to mind more easily
– Usualy works but can be devastating when it doesn’t
Ex: You hear a lot about plan crashes which are extremely rare, you don’t hear about the safe uneventful flights
Ex: You ruminate over the handful of times you have embrassed yourself
Illusory Correlation
- When we think there is a big relationship between two events/variables, but here actually isn’t (or it’s really small)
- Can lead to
- superstitions
- stereotypes (Hamilton & Gifford, 1976)
Confirmation Bias
- The tendency to seek/consider evidence that would SUPPORT our existing belief over evidence that would oppose it
- The tendency to neglect disconfirming evidence
Conjuntion Fallacy
We use resemblance without considering that the probability of [A & B together] cannot possibly be higher than the probability of just A alone
- Linda bank teller… Not all bank tellers are active feminists…
- If you think about the choices carefully, you will realize that the first choice must be more likely than the second choice, because every liberal Democrat bank teller is also a bank teller, while not all bank tellers are liberal Democrats. But Kristen sounds so much like a liberal Democrat (and so unlike a bank teller) that most people mistakenly choose the second option, as shown in the graph at right.
Belief Perseverance
tendency to continue endorsing a belief even when evidence has completely undermined it.
The backfire effect
An individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoints
Representativeness Heuristic
Judge probability based on how much the individual resembles a category prototype
Linda the feminist bank teller:
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations
Which of the following statements is more probable?
Linda is a bank teller
Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement
Answer: People assumed she was active in the feminist movement and a bankteller because of her descritption. The percentage of bank tellers actual active in the feminist movement is very low yet people assumed since she shared similar characterstics and hobbies of someone active in the movement
Base Rate Neglect
We use resemblance without considering the base rate of categories in the population
Ex: 500,000 farmers vs. 100,000 librarians
Gambler’s Fallacy
The mistaken belief that a random process will conform to expected probabilties in the short run
Ex: When you flip a coin the belief that tails is more likely to come than heads since you got heads so many other times before
Anchor & Adjust Heuristic
We make estimates by anchoring on a starting value, then adjusting (often insufficiently)
Ex: if you give choices and say guess more than 10% or less than 10% the starting value will be lower
Ex: If you give choices and say guess more than 65% or less than 65% the starting value will be higher
Logical Reasoning: Deduction
Making logical conclusions that follow from accepted premises
–categorical syllogisms
– conditional statements
Categorical Syllogisms
2 premises accepted as true
A conclusion which may or may not be valid
Premise 1: All birds are animals
Premise 2: All animals eat food
ConclusionL All birds eat food
If A=B
and If B=C
Then A=C
This would be a valid conlusion
Belief Bias (Think of categorical syllogisms)
Tendency to judge conclusions as valid/invalid based on whether they fit with our existing beliefs (which is irrelevant to the logic)
Watson 4 Card Task: Test of conditional reasoning
If there is a vowel, then there needs to be an even number… If then statements
If there is a vowel on the other side of the number (7) its dispproves the claimed rule
To test a conditional rule, you need to look for situations that would falsify/disprove the rule
Most people can’t do this because of confirmation bias, humans are biased to seek confirming evidence and not evidence that would potentially disprove the rule you are assessing or your current belief
What is a way to reframe the watson problem so that people solve it more easily
If vowel, then even
- stick to the rule to the letter
- If you it doesn’t work that’s good you disproed the rule
Expected Utility Theory
- Predicts what people would do if completely rational
- Choose the option with the greatest expected value
- HOWEVER This does not work because of FRAMING EFFECTS
Prospect Theory [placeholder]
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Framing Effects
The way a question is asked can influence peoples’ decisions
Talk about the potential gains, do not talk about the potential losses
Loss aversion
- We hate losses more than we love gains
Diminishing Marginal Utility
When framing changes the percentage saved, it can change your decision making
Dual Process [placeholder]
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Type 1 processing
heuristic based: fast, intuitive, automatic, but prone to error…induction
Type 2 processing
logic-basedL slow and controlled, conscious, but less prone to error…deduction.
