Electoral systems Flashcards
What voting system does the US use?
The electoral college system
How does the electoral college work when figuring out number of votes?
Every state gets a certain number of electoral college votes- this is equal to state representation in congress
-Figured out by number of senators (there is always 2 senators) and amount of representatives
-Senate + HOR= Electoral collage votes
Example of electoral college votes? wyoming and california?
Wyoming has 3
2 senators and 1 representatives
-Florida has 55
2 s + 53 r
How does the electoral college work?
To get a state you have to win the majority in the state
48 states do this
What’s the absolute majority to win?
270
What are the 2 states that don’t use the electoral collage system?
Maine
Nebraska
What system do maine and nebraska use?
Congressional district method
What is the congressional district method?
States allocate 2 electoral college votes to the states popular vote winner and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district
(2 in maine and 3 in nebraska)
-Creates multiple popular vote contest in these states leading to a split electoral vote
Example of congressional district method?
In 2020 Trump won the popular vote in Nebraska so 2 votes then won 2 states in Nebraska so 2+2= 4
and Biden won 1 district as he won in one state
2 strengths of the electoral collages’ system?
-Preserves the voices of the small population states
-Promotes a two horse race
Strength- Preserves the voices of the small population states examples?
In first election in 1788
13 states took part
The smallest had 3 ECV
But Virgina had 12
By 2016 Cali- 55 ECV
Wyoming and Alaska- 3
Strengths- Promotes a two horse race?
Election from the president who is chief executive and the head of state
A symbol of unity in 2 horse race winner will receive more than 50% defined to unite the batuin
In 26 of the 39 held between 1864 and 2016, 213 winner got more ten 50% of vote, but 4 of the 13 election in which this did not occur president won with more than 1/2 of vote
5 weaknesses of the electoral college system?
-Small states are overrepresented
-Winner takes all system distorts results
-Unfair to nationalise third party
-Rouge elections
-President and VP from different party’s
Weakness- Small states are overrepresented?
Cali- 55 ECV, 39.2% population
Wyoming- 3 ECV but over half a mil
Cali has 1 vote for 713000 people
But Wyoming 195,000 people
Weakness- Winner takes all system distorts results examples?
Bill Clinton won 49% of population vote but 70% of ECV
-BC won 48.2% of vote but DC 46.1% of popular vote but then won
Weakness- Unfair to nationalise third party example?
John Anderson independent won the popular vote and Ross Peroci 85% but didn’t win the election
George Wallace won 13.5% of vote but won 5 states in 45 ECV even though he was an extremist
Weakness- Rouge elections
examples?
Rouge elector is an elector in the electoral collage who cast vote for candidate other than the one who won the popular vote in the state
Many states have laws requiring elections to cast their ballot for states but some don’t leaving open possibly that electors cast ballot some this way
7/13 since 1963 has occurred
Weakness- President and VP from different parties example?
If president from one party and vp from other
What are the possible reforms for electoral systems?
Direct election
Congressional system
Proportional system
Reforms- direct election?
After 2016 and Trump winning without a majority of the public vote, therefore should be scrapped all together
Reforms- congressional system?
Most widely advocated system e.g. Maine and Nebraska
Critics- less proportional system, Gore would have lost by more, Romney won in 2017 against obama by 5 mill, obama eon fewer districts by bigger majority’s
-Obama won Pennsylvania 52% to 46% but romney won 13 districts
Reforms- proportional system?
Allocates electoral college vote into each state proportional to popular vote in state, this would lead to a more equably allocation of electoral college vote
Critics- Have to change constitution (very hard)
What is primary?
-Time after the invisible primary
A state based election to choose a party’s candidate for presidency it shows support for candidates among ordinary vote
How do primary’s run?
State law
So great variations exist
What are primary’s 2 function?
1) Popularity of presidential candidate
2)To choose delegates to go to national party convention
What are caucuses?
Caucus are state based based series of meetings to choose a party candidates for presidents
Attract unrepresentative and low turnout
Caucuses location?
Large states with a thin population
Like Iowa, North Dakota and Nevada
In 2016 Rep got 10 and Dem 14
Turnout in caucuses and example?
Lower than primaries and those who do turnout are disproportionality more ideological than primary votes
e.g. Bernie Sanders, had the strongest showing in caucuses for the dems in 2016 won 68% in Kansas 82% in Alaska
Average caucus of 66% compared to Clinton 33%
Timings of primaries?
States decide timinings of elections for p or c
Usually do the earliest and latest possible date (mid jan to early june)
Timings of primaries? New Hampshire?
Schedules their contest early and on date where no other primaries are being held thereby hoping to give their primary the prominence that it would not otherwise
Timings of primaries- California?
In 2020 moved theirs from june t march
Timings of primaries- super tuesday?
2016, First tuesday in March when 11 states did this was called super tuesday
-Began in 1988 as an attempt to block of southern states to increase their importance in the candidate selection process e.g. New Hampshire
What is frontloading?
Scheduling the primary election early in election year, as they believe it will give them more influence over candidate selection
-On 5th Feb 2008, 55% of delegate to the democratic and republic convention chosen
New Hampshire- primary?
-Early on so more media attention and candidates taken seriously
-Early so voters have 5x more vote turnout as candidates haven’t dropped out
-Leaders to publicity and name recognition e.g. 2008 obama and McCain went on the front of time magazine leading to Obama 51.39%
-If you do badly it’s hard to come back e.g. Jed Bush 2014
Iowa caucaus?
-Earlier of front runners so couldnt create from running e.g. Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio 2016
-Voter very ideological 2016- 2020 Bernie Sanders did well or Radical like Trump 2016
-All winners of democratic Iowa caucaus because candidates in since 1992, so a big deal
-Many complain as unrepresentive state
Incumbency and primary?
When an incumbent president is running for re election e.g. Barak Obama 2012, the primary for the presidents party will go with little to no coverage
Obama, Virginia, South Carolina, Florida and Ny
When incumbency become significant?
1996
Failed incumbency Bush snr?
Fought Patt Buchanan, PB didnt get any but in new hampshire 72% in 1992
Bush and Buchanan both lost
Failed incumbency- Ford 1976?
Fought Regan and he lost
Failed incumbency- Carter 1980?
Fought Jeff Kennedy who won 12 state contest and lost
Case study- 2020 democratic primaries?
Very diverse, 6 women, one gay and 2 billionaires. No headrunner
-Very long and gruelling
-Left to 2, Bernie Sanders who wanted expansion for federal welfare programmes, Or Joe Biden the former VP, best for blue colour voters
-Biden performed badly in Iowa coming 4th and 5th New Hampshire but gained endorsements from Harris, Gabbard and Buttigieg even after they dropped out of the race
-Iowa caucus app broke, bernie sanders suspended his campaigned
4 factors for turnout?
-Demographic
-Type of primary
-Competitive
-Nomination has been decided or not
Turnout- nomination?
Primaries scheduled earlier will attract more high turnout
-In 2008 the NY primary was held on 5 February that year’s super Tuesday when the race for the republicans nomination was still undecided at 642,894
Turnout- Type of primary?
Open- higher turnout as allows registered voters vote in each primary
Closed- less only self identity party supporters can vote true in competitive race in 2012, 11 state held open primary in republic
-Increased in 2008 in Wisconsin 92%, Mississippi 105%
But in 15% held closed in 2012 republican only 2 increase. Connecticut down 61% and NY 71% Obama ad Clinton
Turnout- Demograph?
Better educated, older and higher income more likely to vote than younger vote
e.g. North Carolina, Republican voters in 2016 1/2 of voters had a college degree, earning over $100,000 per year 3/4
-Only 6% 24 or younger
-37% conservative
