elections and referendums Flashcards
what are the features of FPTP
two party systems winners bonus bias to majority party discrimination against third and smaller parties single party government
two party systems
favours major parties that have strong nationwide support
what happening to two and half party system
failing in health
social democratic party was formed by a disaffected labour mp in 1981
25% of vote but only 23 seats
winners bonus
exaggerate performance of mot popular party
strong government as it means winner party gets a majority in parliament
bias to one major party
system favoured labour from 1990s to 2010 reasons for bias; tactical voting different constituency size differential turnout
votes per seat at 2015 general election
conservative; 34,243 labour; 40,290 lib dems; 301,986 UKIP; 3,881,129 SNP; 25,972
how does FPTP discriminate against smaller parties
need support to be broad and concentrated
mechanics
makes it more difficult for smaller parties to win seats
psychology
smaller parties have a credibility problem because voters believe that a vote for them is ‘wasted’
single party government
produces single party majority governments with working parliamentary majorities
does FPTP always produce single party governments
four of the seven general elections held between 1910 and 1929 did not produce a majority government
advanatges of FPTP
strong government easier to hold it accountable
easy to understand for the electorate, familiar
winner bonus creates strong government
extremist parties cant get into power
electorate view it as legitimate
produces clear winner
doctrine of mandate
obliges winning party to put proposals into affect
FPTP gives them a stronger mandate
disadvantages of FPTP
discriminates against third parties
win on simple plurality, dont need majority, less legit
wasted votes
disproportional
more safe seats
not proper choice because of two party
safe+ marginal seats hides signifcant levels of support
for FPTP (what is effective representation)
single member constituencies clear link between voters and elected representatives
example of how disproportional outcome
tend to win more seats than vote merit
majority governments have only one 35% of vote
since 1945 2nd parties
UKIP seat to vote share ratio
1 seat but 12.6% of vote
who benefited from tactical voting
labour, from anti-conservative tactical voting between 1997 and 2005
constituency size impact in 2015
electorate in constituencies won by labour were on average 3,850 lower than those won by conservative
mostly because of population movement from urban to rural
differential turnout
lower in labour held seats
62% in 2015, compared to 69% in seats won by cons
labour need to win fewer votes to win seats between 1997 and 2010
divisive politics
small shifts in voting produced frequent changes of government- led to instability because parties could overturn policies introduced by their rvials
FPTP is no longer fit for purpose
less effective in persuading electors not to vote for small parties= lib dems 23% 2010
other parties winning seats in commons 2015 SNP 56 seats
Winston Churchill on FPTP
not secure majority representation, nor do they secure an intelligent representation of minorities 1909
british election turnout figures using other systems
has never got 55%
why did UKIP not win more seats in 2015
their support wasnt concentrated
UKIP compared to SNP in 2015
UKIP won more than twice as many votes than SNP but recieved 55 fewer seats
took 26,000 votes to elect one SNP MP
took 4 million votes to elect a UKIP MP
example of how FPTP creates illegitimate MPs
albert owen (labour) re-elected in Ynys Mon with only 31% of vote
which elections use FPTP
general elections to commons
which elections to supplementary
mayoral election
police and crime commissioners
which elections use regional list
european parliament
lists seats for devolved parliament
which elections use single transferable vote
assembly, local and european parliament
which elections use additional member system
scottish parliament
welsh assembly
london assembly
majoritarian system
absolute majority 50% +1
FPTP is NOT majoritarian
plurality system
winner needs only one more vote than closest rival
FPTP IS a single member plurality
proportional representation
cover many systems which produce close fit between votes and seats
mixed system
some representatives elected in a single member constituency using FPTP. remainder by proportional representation
safest seat in country
Liverpool, Walton Labour won by 86% in 2017
most marginal seat in 2017
North East fife SNP won by 2 votes
what are super marginals
majorities of fewer than 100 votes
propsect 2015
vernon bogdanor
“no government since 2001 has gained support of over 40% of voters”
“1950s over 90% of us voted conservative or labour”
“unfreezing of class structure”
functions of elections
representation
choosing a government
influence over policy
citizen education
elections to devolved assemblies
every 5 years
local elections
4 year terms
by election
resigns or dies
european parliament elections
every 5 years
why has there been so much electoral reform since 1997
vocal campaigning against FPTP
labour manifesto included constitiutional and electoral reform
how do more proportional outcomes impact third parties
they get more success
what are coalition governments
no single party wins a majority of seats, multiples partis form government
what are minority governments
forms government despite not winning a majority of seats
why do supporters of FPTP prefer majority government
strengthens their mandate
get votes in parliament to pass bills
what is split ticket voting
voting for candidates from political parties when multiple offices are being decided by a single elections
why has electoral reform slowed down in recent years
once labour started to win majority with FPTP they started to move away from the idea
additional member system
elements of FPTP and the regional list
used to elect the scottish parliament, welsh and london assembly
how are seats elected using AMS
proportional seats in legislative assembly are elected using FPTP in single member constituencies (73 out of 129 members)
additional members are elected using regional list
how does electorate cast votes using AMS
two votes- one for favourite candidate + one for favourite party
how are regional list seats allocated in AMS
using the d’Hondt formula+ on a corrective basis to ensure no. of seats in the assembly is proportional to number of votes
advantages of AMS
combines best features of FPTP and proportional reprensentation
less wasted votes
more proportional
greater choice (split ticket voting)
voting easy to count+electorate understand how outcome is reached
disadvantages of AMS
2 categories of representatives- one with constituency duties + one without, could create tension
parties have significant control over closed lists used to elect additional memebers-voters cant choose between candidate from same party
supplementary voting
used to elect mayor of london
voter records 1st and 2nd preferences
if no candidate wins a majority of first preferences all but two candidates are elminated+ 2nd preference votes are for the remaining two candidates
advantages of supplementary voting
winner achieve broad support= legitimacy
supporters of smaller parties can use first vote to show allegiance to it and second to bigger party they prefer
disadvantages of supplementary voting
winning candidate elected without winning majority of votes if second preferences votes arent used effectively
winning candidate doesnt need majority of first preference votes
wouldnt deliver proportion in general election
what is single transferable vote
representatives are elected in larger multi member constituencies, 18 constituencies each elect six members
voting is preferential+ ordinal (can choose as many as they want)
candidate must achieve droop quota, excess votes are redistributed on basis of second preference
what is droop quota
(total valid poll/seats available +1) +1
advantages of single transferable vote
proportional outcomes+votes
greater choice range of candidates with multiple ones from the same party
disadvantages of single transferable vote
less accurate in translating votes into seats than proportional representation
multi member constituency weaken mp constituency link
likely to produce coalition
counting process lengthy and complex
impact of FPTP on the type of government
becoming less likely to produce majority government of the last 3 elections only 2015 produced a majority
impact of election system on representation
elections to devolved assemblies reflect increasing multi party politics
2015 general election was one of most disproportionate in the post war period
impact of election systems on voter choice
greater choice under AMS,SV,STV- split ticket
more sophisticated voting behavior
evidence from other countries= turnout in GE conducted under PR higher than where FPTP is used
what is a referendum
popular vote on a single issue
when was the 1st referendum
197 nationwide EEC
only been 3 referendums
AV vote 2011
EEC 1975
EU 2016
local referendums
congestion charges
manchester 2008 3/4 voters rejected
national referendums
constitutional change (devolution) coalition agreement (2011 AV) party management (resolve divisions) political pressure (scottish independence)
referendum regulations
wording
campaign participation
campaign spending
conduct of the campaign
wording of referendum regulations
commission propose questions to the government but they don’t have to accept (usually do)
campaign participation (referendum regulations)
spend £10,000+ on campaigning must register as participants with electoral commission
bigger parties have higher spending limit, public money and tv broadcast entitlement
conduct of campaign (referendum regulations)
issues report on administration and spending
questioned rules on spending by UK government in 2016 EU referendum
why can referendums be argued to provide a stronger mandate for important reforms than elections
single issue which create clear and stronger mandate
in elections people voting on manifesto- less likely to agree on every policy
what was the good friday agreement
peace agreement between british and irish government and most political parties in northern ireland
about future of governance of Northern Ireland
establsihed northern ireland assembly
nationalists and unionists share power in government
how did a referendum help the good friday agreement
71% in favour 81% turnout helped shield deal from extremists
how did referendums help the Labour government in the 1970s
67.23% voted to stay in the EEC, it meant divisions in the party could be smoothed over
what are entrenched laws
more difficult process for ammendment or repeal than normal laws
changes to US constitution need 2/3 super majority
why can referendums be said to entrench UK constitutional reforms, even though parliament is sovereign?
public pressure and threat of next election makes it more difficult for parliament and the government to ignore
what impact can referendums have on political participation
can encourage political participation between elections and can educate voters on key political issues exposing them to various arguments
encourages future participation
what is the electoral commission
formed by political parties commission act (2000)
what influence does electoral commission have on UK referendum
designates an official ‘lead campaign’ group for each side of the argument
£600,000 to each side
any donations over 7.5K must be disclosed to commission
Why do turnout levels undermine the results of many referendums
Turnout usually low meaning legitimacy is questioned
What is voter fatigue
Lack of interest is upcoming elections and referendums
Why are yes/no referendums often more complicated than they appear
Few political issues can be decided by yes/no
Many grey areas are overlooked
E.g Scottish referendum would they remain in EU?
How can the government influence the outcome of referendums
Timing
Not have one altogether
The question asked
Shape debates
Why do some critics argue that referendums can become opinion polls for some voters
Focus on governments performance rather than actual issue
Why can it be argued that political issues should be left to elected representatives?
Citizens votes on self interest whereas representatives are more likely to vote on national interest
Why is the cost and campaigning of referendums an issue
Usually very expensive AV 2011 vote= £75million EU 2016= £129.1 million Two sides might be unequally resourced Leave campaign BeLeave spent £675,000 which should’ve been declared
Impact of referendums on uk political areas
Direct democracy
Parliamentary sovereignty and representative democracy
Constitutional convention
How have referendums impacted direct democracy
Enhanced democracy-government more responsive to people (but results can be ignored)
Created competing legitimacies (referendum result could be different from representative opinion)
Example of competing legitimacies amongst referendum results and referendums
(Need to get stats)
Have referendums enhanced representative democracy in the uk (YES)
Direct democracy (citizens have final say)
Check power of government-more responsive to the people
Enhanced political participation
Educated people on key issues
Legitimised constitutional changes
Turnout for Scottish referendum
84.6%
Referendums have enhanced representative democracy in the uk (NO)
Undermined representative democracy (they have the political knowledge)
Undermined parliamentary sovereignty
Government take advantage of authority-choose when its held to strengthen their decision
Turnout often poor
Refendum campaigns ill informed
Turnout of eu referendum
71.9%
% of electorate who actually voted to leave
37.4%
Electorate size 46,500,001
(People who voted leave 17,410,742)
Lies during referendum campaign
Leaving will give NHS extra £350m a week
(actually closer to £250m might not even go to NHS)
Poll by Ipsos MORI found 1/2 British public believe the claim
2/3 British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from europe (actually closer to 15%)
How have referendums impacts parliamentary sovereignty and representative democracy
Parliamentary sovereignty=constitutional corner stone
MPs=make their own minds up
Referendums=shift toward popular sovereignty
Their not legally binding
Competing claims of legitimacy
Debate on how government should invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty
How have referendums impacted constitutional convention
Since 1997 devolution referendums has become convention to have a referendum for further change
Government Of Wales Act 2006
Permitted welsh assembly to gain new powers if they were approved in a referendum- happened in 2011
Scotland Act 2016
States Scottish parliament and government can’t be abolished unless approved in a referendum Scotland
3 reasons for holding referendums
Enables direct democracy
Enhances political participation
Legitimise conditional changes
Voting trend in Scotland
Traditionally labour
2015 SNP dominance
Voting trend in Wales
Heavy labour bias strong levels of support for conservative
Why has Wales got this voting tends
Industrial areas favour labour
Rural areas vote con
Far west more nationalist
Northern Ireland voting trends
Own two part system split between unionist and nationalist parties
Why does Northern Ireland have this voting trend
Reflects religious and cultural divisions in the region
London voting trend
Majority labour
Why does London vote this way
Increase ethnic diversity
Greater economic disparity
More socially liberal than other regions
Rural England voting trend
Overwhelmingly conservative
Why does rural England vote this way
Mostly white
Economically conservative
Socially conservative
Industrial north of England voting trend
Mostly labour
Why does industrial north of England vote this way
Higher levels of unemployment
Greater rates of poverty
Greater ethnic diversity
Factors affecting voting
Class
Gender
Age
Ethnicity
Class dealignment
People no longer vote according to class
Core voter
Any group of voters who will loyally vote for a party
Floating (swing voters)
Not loyal to a party open to persuasion
Partisan dealignment
The idea that people are less committed or loyal to one particular party
Until 1980s how did class affect voting
Classes A,B+C1 middle class con voters C2,D,E working class lab voters
What used to be the two main concerns for voters
Employment and inflation- meant two main parties centred their class based choices around this 88% of all voters voted for two main parties 1970
What has partisan dealignment led to?
An increase in swing voters
What has a weakening class system resulted in
More diverse political struggles between parties
Which factor, rather than class, seemed to be the determining factor on how someone voted
Their education
How does gender influence voting behaviour
Women tended to vote cons whilst men labour bc women less likely to be members of trade unions
How does ethnicity influence voting behaviour
1997 had strong support for non white
Due to labour history of supporting rights of ethnic minorities
Race relation act 1965
Recent elections cons criticising immigration
How does age influence voting behaviour
2005 GE labour got stronger support for younger voters in 2010
Voters are older generally more protective about property so vote cons
How has region influenced voting behaviour
Traditionally south cons+ north lab Historically north have class industries
What are primary factors (voting behaviours)
Age, class, ethnicity
What are recency factors (voting behaviour)
Short term factors e.g party policy
What is the social structures/sociological model of voting behaviour
Emphasis importance of social groups+ characteristics E,g working class may want higher taxes on public services they depend on
What is the party identification model
Voters psychologically attached to a particular party, identifying with them and supporting them in spite of short term factors
Social class
Social group whose members share economic , social and cultural characteristics
Voting by class in 2017 general election
AB+C1 44% cons and 40% labour
C2+DE 44% cons and 42% labour
Shows class wasn’t major dividing line
2017 vote by education
55% those of GCSEs or below voted cons
49% with degree or above voting labour
2015 gender voting
Conservatives;
Male=38%
Women=37%
Labour;
Male=30%
Women=33%
^gender was not crucial
Most issues their is no difference in opinions except….
Foreign intervention
Nuclear war
Nuclear weapons
^men prioritise these whereas women prioritise health and education
What can explain the conservative victory with male voters in 2017
Division between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa mays view on nuclear power and weapons
Male voters 45% share
Why are left parties at a disadvantage
Younger people less likely to vote+ageing population
Does the class system still matter in uk politics (YES)
Issues of tax and benefits remain key distinction between two main parties
Geographic voting trends still reflect relative wealth
Class inequality major concern
Does the class system still matter in uk politics (NO)
Issues such as immigration cross class division Size+role of working class has declined more than half Increasing property ownership
What age are most people likely to switch from labour to conservative
47
Which way do ethnic minorities lean
Left
What was 1968 Enoch Powell’s speech ‘river of blood’ speech?
Speech by con MP criticising labours government immigration and anti discrimination legislation
Norman Tebbit’s ‘cricket test’ 1990
Norman criticised south Asian and Caribbean immigrants for their lack of loyalty to English cricket team
When did mass migration begin in the UK
1950s new wave of workers
Often found in industrial areas labouring
New citizens benefited from social policies from labour
During the 1960s and 1970s what did the conservative do to win elections
‘White fright’
Fears about changing nature of British society to win election
What is the social capital theory about decline in turnout
People are more incline to feel like less of society
Why is the social capital theory not convincing
Growth in rights culture and media engagement
Why does declining standards of education decrease turnout
People less aware of their civic responsibilities
Why does FPTP systems affect turnout
Alienates electorate as it’s not proportional
Why is the theory that FPTP decreases turnout not convincing
AV system was rejected in 2011 referendum
Partisan dealignment theory ( voter turnout)
Turnout is declining because people are less motivated to vote
(Not always true, even tho party loyalty has declined, still engagement in pressure groups +campaigns)
Ethnic minority responsible for voter turnout declining
Ethnic minorities are less likely to vote
Decline in turnout thatcher theory
Since 1990(Thatcher) cons+lab reached consensus on several issues Less real choice between two main parties
Why is the Thatcher decline in voting theory not convincing
Lab shifted left under brown miliband and Corbyn
Clearer distinction
Media theory has caused voter turnout decline
Sleaze+negative culture spread by media have turned people away from politics
(Sleaze has always existed in politics e.g Profumo scandal 1960s turnout still 71.4% in 1997)
Real reason for voter turnout decline
Unappetising/lack of choice
Why was turnout so low in 2001
Tony Blair still popular
Cons very divided over Europe
59% turnout
Why did turnout jump 4% in 2010
More competitive but still unpopular choice
Brown or divided Conservative party
Why was turnout so low in 2015 and 2017
Unpopular party leaders
Mays style and Corbyn ideology
Politicians are to blame for declining turnout (YES)
Failed to inspire public
Scandals+corruption turned people away
Negative campaigning
Politicians are to blame for declining turnout (NO)
Public need to make voices heard if they are not happy
Media are responsible undermining respect for politicians
Low turnout reflects social+generational changes
3 theories explaining voting choice
Rational choice
Issue voting
Economic or valence issues
Rational choice theory
Logical judgement based on what is in their own interest
Assumption is voters will do a cost/benefit analysis of all options+will vote accordingly
Issue voting
Place one issue above all others
Can mean voting for a candidate whose other policies would be to their detriment
Economic or valence issue voting
Voters share a common preference
Place vote based on who they believe is best placed to deliver what they want
Governing competency
Perceived ability of the government or opposition, to manage the affairs of the country
Politicians punished at polls if economy fails
Factors affecting individual voting
Policies Key issues Performance in office Leadership Image Tactical voting
Policies
Voters consider policies in manifestos
See which policies suit them best
Performance in office
Voters simplify election into a referendum in the current government
If economy does badly government is punished
Leadership
Voters often take the view they are selecting PM rather than voting for party
Image
Voters make choice based on perception of party image
Spatial leadership
Prime minister relies on his or her own inner circle adivisors, rather than cabinet
Role of a party leader
Inspire party activists
Appear prime ministerial
Have positive media presence
Appear strong in leading the party
Are party leaders the main reasons for a party’s electoral fortunes
(YES)
Strong leader inspire confidence from floating voters
Strong performance motivate core voters
Strong leader maintains party discipline
Are party leaders the main reason for a party’s electoral fortunes
(NO)
People vote for local mp not PM
Other major event affect opinions (Iraq war,financial crisis)
Core supporter loyal despite leadership
What representation issues are raised by the House of Lords
Peers are unelected and unaccountable
House of Lords reform Bill 2012 propose gradual transition
Plan abandoned after backbenchers rebelled
What is the delegate theory of representation
Act on instructions of constituents, not be influenced by their own people
Constituents instruct MP
Not all constituents thing alike+less politically active don’t get their view
What is the trustee theory of representation
Edmund Burke
Experienced educated+informed MPs should consider constituents views but exercise their own judgment
What is the party/mandate model of representation
MPs owe their position to their party rather than their personal popularity
Vote in line with party manifesto
Why has the use of referendums complicated the question of how MPs should represent their constituents
52 labour MPs voted again EU bill at 3rd reading defied 3 line whip
Claimed they were acting as delegate
1/3 MPs represented constituency in which majority voted to remain
What are free/conscience votes
MPs and peers aren’t put under pressure to vote a certain way
What is meant by ‘constituency representation’
MPs are responsible in addressing and advancing the interest of constituents
What are ‘surgeries’
Constituents go and meet them and explain grievances
Why do MPs seek redress if grievances
To set something right/if their had been unfair treatment
What concerns have been raised about the impact of constituency work on parliamentary functions
MPs spend more time on constituent work (59%)
Difficult to effectively carry out functions of parliament such as scrutinising bills
What is functional representation
Representatives advocate not for territory but for different sections of society (classes)
Constituency representation looks at territory
What are all party parliamentary groups?
Informal groups, no official status in parliament
Brings members from different parties to discuss+promote matters of common interest
What is descriptive representation
Extent to which representatives share the same balance of gender, ethnicity, occupation etc.. as the electorate
Important for parliaments legitimacy
What ways did the 2017 general election make the House of Commons more descriptively representative w
208 women elected
52 non white up from 41
5 disabled MPs
Women make up 32% from 3%
What criticism are still made about diversity of MPs
Only 8% commons in non white opposed to 14% of population
32% women isn’t representative
Is the HoL more or less descriptively representative
Less
Only 6.4% of peers in lords were non white
What is the dominant ideology model
Voters influenced by ideology of powerful elites, through their role of media+business they are in a position to project their ideas
How are the rules for broadcasting and print media different?
Broadcasting=fact driven+impartial
Print media= no legal obligation to remain impartial
What are the concerns of newspaper ownership in the uk
Owned by handful of millionaires who are more likely to be right wing
What is cognitive dissonance
Mental stress felt when confronted with information which conflicts with our existing beliefs
Selective exposure
Avoiding political coverage which will conflict with our beliefs
Selective perception
Interpreting facts in a way that doesn’t contrast with our beliefs
Direct effect theory of media influence
Media’s directly influence how we think/vote
Agenda setting theory of media influence
Doesn’t change how we think, influences what we think about
Framing theory of media influence
Media subtly frame issues to influence how we think about them
Reinforcement theory of media influence
Choose media that agrees with our views
% population which are over 65
60%
By 2030 how much of the population will be over 60
4/10
What is churn
Even if a few seats change hands, party voters remain stable
Spatial model of voting
Stresses importance of positional voters
Parties will win if policies match average voters position
Salient issues
Issues considered to be most important in election e.g economy
